The off season is upon us, with it comes mock drafts and player rankings. Now there are a few certainties with these rankings every year. Albert Pujols will be the top first baseman, Utley the top second baseman (until the hip news broke of course) and Johan as the number one pitcher. I agree completely with the first two, the third one however, well I think I am going to slide Mr. Santana back a spot or two.
Now before I get attacked let me defend myself and my point (take’er easy). Last season Johan’s final numbers were good. However they are misleading. He posted a FIP of 3.51, nearly a whole run higher then his actual ERA. He also saw his K/9 fall 7.91. Now that is still a fine K rate, but this is the first time he has been under 9 since he became a full time starter. Further more he saw his K/9 fall while pitching in the NL. His LOB% was also 82% which simply is not maintainable. More to the point look at what the true number one pitcher CC did in his time in the senior circuit. He had Johan in ERA and FIP by a run and a half run respectively. He also had him in K’s, K/9 and WHIP. It does not stop there though. Over the past two seasons, Sabathia has him in K/BB and BB/9. He also has him in win’s which count for fantasy. The true factor though is the fact the Sabathia appears to be trending up, why Johan, although slightly, is starting to trend down.