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Week 7 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

August 17th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 7.

Game of the Week: #11 Texas 31 (5-1) @ #3 Oklahoma 37 (6-0) Again, the Red River Shootout lives up to its billing with serious Big Twelve and national implications. Both teams enter the game undefeated, eyeing a BCS bid. Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray and the Sooners prevail by less than a touchdown, winning 80.3% of the time and by an average score of 37-31.

Week 7 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup Home Win% Avg Score

Gardner-Webb @ GA Tech 95 4-38

Syracuse @ W. Virginia 95 12-41

Purdue @ Ohio State 95 7-36

Tennessee @ Georgia 95 15-36

UAB @ Houston 95 13-37

Idaho @ Fresno State 95 18-37

Toledo @ Michigan 95 14-39

New Mexico State @ Nevada 93.4 26-35

Minn. @ Illinois 91.8 19-35

Nebraska @ Texas Tech 90.2 19-36

Arizona St. @ USC 88.5 14-36

Arkansas @ Auburn 88.5 11-27

Troy @ Florida Atlantic 88.5 12-34

Colorado @ Kansas 85.2 24-40

Louisiana Tech @ Hawaii 85.2 13-30

Oklahoma State @ Missouri 80.3 34-39

Texas @ Oklahoma 80.3 31-37

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State 80.3 9-24

New Mexico @ Brigham Young 75.4 16-30

Iowa State @ Baylor 72.1 16-28

Penn State @ Wisconsin 70.5 18-33

Utah State @ San Jose State 70.5 12-23

Tulane @ UTEP 62.3 20-29

Washington St. @ Oregon State 62.3 17-24

Rutgers @ Cincinnati 60.7 22-34

Iowa @ Indiana 60.7 17-28

Temple @ C. Michigan 60.7 23-31

S. Carolina @ Kentucky 59 14-22

UCLA @ Oregon 55.7 19-26

Notre Dame @ North Carolina 54.1 22-29

Ohio @ Kent St. 34.4 26-20

LSU @ Florida 32.8 32-25

LA-Monroe @ Arkansas St. 32.8 27-23

UCF @ Miami (FL) 31.1 22-17

W. Michigan @ Buffalo 29.5 27-23

LA-Laf @ North Texas 29.5 29-25

Clemson @ WF 27.9 26-17

Tulsa @ SMU 24.6 39-34

E. Michigan @ Army 24.6 22-15

Bowling Green @ Akron 23 26-15

Michigan State @ Northwestern 21.3 31-23

Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois 21.3 29-19

Utah @ Wyoming 21.3 23-15

Boise State @ S. Miss 18 31-20

East Carolina @ Virginia 16.4 24-15

Kansas State @ Texas A&M 16.4 40-30

Ball State @ Western Kentucky 16.4 34-22

Mid Tenn @ Fla. Int. 14.8 27-16

Arizona @ Stanford 13.1 31-17

TCU @ Colorado St. 11.5 30-15

Louisville @ Memphis 9.8 39-25

Air Force @ San Diego State 5 33-13


Updated FBS Standings through Week 7


Conference Team Abs Record Exp Record

Atlantic Coast Clemson 6 - 0 5 - 1

Atlantic Coast Virginia Tech 6 - 0 5 - 1

Atlantic Coast Boston College 4 - 1 4 - 1

Atlantic Coast WF 4 - 1 4 - 1

Atlantic Coast GA Tech 4 - 2 4 - 2

Atlantic Coast Maryland 4 - 2 4 - 2

Atlantic Coast North Carolina 5 - 1 4 - 2

Atlantic Coast Duke 1 - 4 3 - 2

Atlantic Coast Florida State 4 - 1 3 - 2

Atlantic Coast Miami (FL) 2 - 4 3 - 3

Atlantic Coast Virginia 2 - 4 2 - 4

Atlantic Coast NC St. 1 - 5 1 - 5

Big East W. Virginia 6 - 0 6 - 0

Big East Cincinnati 5 - 1 5 - 1

Big East South Florida 5 - 1 5 - 1

Big East Pittsburgh 4 - 1 4 - 1

Big East Connecticut 5 - 1 4 - 2

Big East Louisville 4 - 1 3 - 2

Big East Rutgers 2 - 4 3 - 3

Big East Syracuse 2 - 4 2 - 4

Big Ten Ohio State 7 - 0 7 - 0

Big Ten Illinois 5 - 1 5 - 1

Big Ten Indiana 6 - 0 5 - 1

Big Ten Iowa 4 - 3 5 - 2

Big Ten Wisconsin 5 - 1 4 - 2

Big Ten Michigan State 4 - 3 4 - 3

Big Ten Penn State 4 - 3 4 - 3

Big Ten Michigan 4 - 2 3 - 3

Big Ten Northwestern 4 - 2 3 - 3

Big Ten Purdue 5 - 1 3 - 3

Big Ten Minn. 3 - 4 3 - 4

Big Twelve Oklahoma 6 - 0 6 - 0

Big Twelve Kansas 6 - 0 5 - 1

Big Twelve Missouri 6 - 0 5 - 1

Big Twelve Texas Tech 6 - 0 5 - 1

Big Twelve Texas 5 - 1 5 - 1

Big Twelve Kansas State 4 - 2 4 - 2

Big Twelve Oklahoma State 5 - 1 4 - 2

Big Twelve Nebraska 3 - 3 3 - 3

Big Twelve Texas A&M 2 - 4 3 - 3

Big Twelve Baylor 2 - 4 2 - 4

Big Twelve Colorado 2 - 4 2 - 4

Big Twelve Iowa State 1 - 5 2 - 4

Conference USA Tulsa 5 - 1 5 - 1

Conference USA East Carolina 3 - 3 4 - 2

Conference USA Houston 5 - 1 4 - 2

Conference USA UCF 5 - 1 4 - 2

Conference USA Rice 3 - 3 3 - 3

Conference USA S. Miss 4 - 2 3 - 3

Conference USA Memphis 2 - 5 3 - 4

Conference USA SMU 3 - 4 3 - 4

Conference USA Marshall 2 - 4 2 - 4

Conference USA Tulane 1 - 5 2 - 4

Conference USA UTEP 2 - 4 2 - 4

Conference USA UAB 1 - 6 2 - 5

Independents (FBS) Notre Dame 3 - 3 4 - 2

Independents (FBS) Navy 2 - 4 3 - 3

Independents (FBS) Army 1 - 5 2 - 4

Independents (FBS) Western Kentucky 2 - 5 2 - 5

Mid-American Ball State 6 - 1 5 - 2

Mid-American W. Michigan 6 - 1 5 - 2

Mid-American Kent St. 4 - 3 4 - 3

Mid-American Bowling Green 2 - 4 3 - 3

Mid-American C. Michigan 4 - 2 3 - 3

Mid-American Miami (OH) 4 - 2 3 - 3

Mid-American E. Michigan 2 - 5 3 - 4

Mid-American Ohio 2 - 5 3 - 4

Mid-American Temple 2 - 5 3 - 4

Mid-American Buffalo 1 - 5 2 - 4

Mid-American Northern Illinois 2 - 4 2 - 4

Mid-American Toledo 2 - 4 2 - 4

Mid-American Akron 1 - 6 2 - 5

Mountain West Utah 6 - 1 6 - 1

Mountain West Brigham Young 6 - 0 5 - 1

Mountain West TCU 6 - 1 5 - 2

Mountain West Air Force 4 - 2 4 - 2

Mountain West Wyoming 3 - 4 4 - 3

Mountain West New Mexico 4 - 3 3 - 4

Mountain West Colorado St. 2 - 4 2 - 4

Mountain West San Diego State 1 - 5 2 - 4

Mountain West UNLV 2 - 4 2 - 4

Pacific-10 USC 4 - 1 4 - 1

Pacific-10 Arizona St. 4 - 2 4 - 2

Pacific-10 Arizona 5 - 1 4 - 2

Pacific-10 California 4 - 1 3 - 2

Pacific-10 Oregon 5 - 2 4 - 3

Pacific-10 UCLA 2 - 4 3 - 3

Pacific-10 Washington St. 2 - 5 3 - 4

Pacific-10 Washington 1 - 4 2 - 3

Pacific-10 Oregon State 3 - 3 2 - 4

Pacific-10 Stanford 1 - 6 1 - 6

Southeastern Georgia 6 - 0 6 - 0

Southeastern LSU 6 - 0 6 - 0

Southeastern Florida 5 - 1 5 - 1

Southeastern Auburn 6 - 1 5 - 2

Southeastern S. Carolina 5 - 2 5 - 2

Southeastern Alabama 4 - 2 4 - 2

Southeastern Kentucky 4 - 2 4 - 2

Southeastern Mississippi State 3 - 3 3 - 3

Southeastern Mississippi 3 - 3 3 - 3

Southeastern Tennessee 3 - 3 3 - 3

Southeastern Arkansas 2 - 4 2 - 4

Southeastern Vanderbilt 0 - 6 1 - 5

Sun Belt Florida Atlantic 4 - 2 4 - 2

Sun Belt Arkansas St. 3 - 3 3 - 3

Sun Belt LA-Monroe 4 - 2 3 - 3

Sun Belt LA-Laf 1 - 5 2 - 4

Sun Belt Mid Tenn 2 - 4 2 - 4

Sun Belt Troy 1 - 5 2 - 4

Sun Belt North Texas 1 - 5 1 - 5

Sun Belt Fla. Int. 0 - 6 0 - 6

Western Athletic Boise State 4 - 1 4 - 1

Western Athletic Fresno State 5 - 1 4 - 2

Western Athletic Nevada 4 - 2 4 - 2

Western Athletic Hawaii 3 - 3 3 - 3

Western Athletic San Jose State 3 - 3 3 - 3

Western Athletic Idaho 3 - 4 3 - 4

Western Athletic New Mexico State 1 - 4 2 - 3

Western Athletic Louisiana Tech 1 - 4 1 - 4

Western Athletic Utah State 0 - 6 1 - 5


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