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Week 4 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com August 14th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Week 4 Scores for Every FBS Game

Game of the Week: #4 LSU 26 (4-0) @ #18 Auburn 11 (3-1) A traditionally hard-fought, low-scoring game, this contest between two top 20 teams in our pre-season Power Rankings does not disappoint - in the latter respect at least. LSU may have lost several key contributors from last year's national championship team, such as quarterback Matt Flynn and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, but these Tigers (as opposed to the other Tigers on the field) are still one of the country's top five most talented teams entering the season. LSU wins 93.4% of the time and by an average score of 26-11 to remind the SEC West who is king of the division. Today we preview Week 4.

| Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score |

| South Carolina State @ Clemson | 95 | 3-46 |

| Northeastern @ Syracuse | 95 | 6-36 |

| Troy @ Ohio State | 95 | 4-49 |

| Massachusetts @ Texas Tech | 95 | 4-46 |

| Sam Houston State @ Kansas | 95 | 4-53 |

| Alabama State @ UAB | 95 | 5-28 |

| Nicholls State @ Memphis | 95 | 6-37 |

| Murray State @ Western Kentucky | 95 | 6-33 |

| Indiana State @ Northern Illinois | 95 | 5-36 |

| Tennessee Tech @ W. Michigan | 95 | 5-39 |

| Wofford @ S. Carolina | 95 | 5-38 |

| E. Michigan @ Maryland | 95 | 14-37 |

| Buffalo @ Missouri | 95 | 17-38 |

| Portland State @ Washington St. | 95 | 6-33 |

| Southeastern Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech | 95 | 6-33 |

| Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati | 95 | 12-30 |

| Rice @ Texas | 95 | 18-36 |

| Vanderbilt @ Mississippi | 90.2 | 14-33 |

| Wyoming @ Brigham Young | 88.5 | 13-31 |

| Baylor @ Connecticut | 85.2 | 17-33 |

| Ball State @ Indiana | 78.7 | 25-38 |

| Temple @ Penn State | 77 | 15-31 |

| Iowa @ Pittsburgh | 70.5 | 15-24 |

| Marshall @ S. Miss | 70.5 | 19-33 |

| Iowa State @ UNLV | 70.5 | 17-27 |

| San Jose State @ Stanford | 70.5 | 13-23 |

| Mid Tenn @ Arkansas St. | 63.9 | 17-25 |

| C. Michigan @ Purdue | 59 | 27-34 |

| Boise State @ Oregon | 59 | 18-27 |

| Arizona @ UCLA | 54.1 | 21-29 |

| Mississippi State @ GA Tech | 52.5 | 17-22 |

| Kansas State @ Louisville | 50.8 | 34-33 |

| Ohio @ Northwestern | 50.8 | 22-30 |

| New Mexico State @ UTEP | 50.8 | 22-28 |

| Notre Dame @ Michigan State | 47.5 | 23-24 |

| New Mexico @ Tulsa | 44.3 | 27-26 |

| Miami (FL) @ Texas A&M | 42.6 | 27-26 |

| Florida Atlantic @ Minn. | 39.3 | 35-33 |

| Kent St. @ LA-Laf | 39.3 | 27-26 |

| UCF @ Boston College | 36.1 | 20-18 |

| Houston @ Colorado St. | 26.2 | 33-22 |

| Idaho @ Utah State | 26.2 | 29-18 |

| Akron @ Army | 24.6 | 19-15 |

| Rutgers @ Navy | 24.6 | 32-29 |

| Florida @ Tennessee | 24.6 | 38-28 |

| Utah @ Air Force | 23 | 30-21 |

| TCU @ SMU | 21.3 | 35-19 |

| Virginia Tech @ North Carolina | 18 | 26-20 |

| WF @ Florida State | 16.4 | 24-17 |

| LA-Monroe @ Tulane | 14.8 | 31-22 |

| Alabama @ Arkansas | 13.1 | 31-19 |

| Fresno State @ Toledo | 8.2 | 33-23 |

| LSU @ Auburn | 6.6 | 26-11 |

| W. Virginia @ Colorado | 5 | 38-20 |

| East Carolina @ NC St. | 5 | 30-16 |

| Georgia @ Arizona St. | 5 | 37-17 |

| South Florida @ Fla. Int. | 5 | 38-8 |


Updated FBS Standings through Week 4

| Conference | Team | Abs Record | Exp Record |

| Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 |

| Atlantic Coast | WF | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |

| Atlantic Coast | Maryland | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | Virginia Tech | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | Boston College | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | Duke | 1 - 2 | 2 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | Florida State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | Miami (FL) | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | GA Tech | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Atlantic Coast | Virginia | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Atlantic Coast | NC St. | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Big East | W. Virginia | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |

| Big East | Pittsburgh | 3 - 0 | 2 - 0 |

| Big East | Connecticut | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |

| Big East | South Florida | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Big East | Cincinnati | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Big East | Louisville | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |

| Big East | Rutgers | 1 - 2 | 2 - 1 |

| Big East | Syracuse | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Big Ten | Ohio State | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 |

| Big Ten | Indiana | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |

| Big Ten | Wisconsin | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |

| Big Ten | Iowa | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Big Ten | Minn. | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Big Ten | Northwestern | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |

| Big Ten | Penn State | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |

| Big Ten | Illinois | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Big Ten | Michigan | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |

| Big Ten | Purdue | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |

| Big Ten | Michigan State | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Big Twelve | Kansas | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 |

| Big Twelve | Texas Tech | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 |

| Big Twelve | Texas | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 |

| Big Twelve | Nebraska | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |

| Big Twelve | Oklahoma | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |

| Big Twelve | Missouri | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |

| Big Twelve | Colorado | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Big Twelve | Kansas State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Big Twelve | Oklahoma State | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |

| Big Twelve | Texas A&M | 1 - 2 | 2 - 1 |

| Big Twelve | Baylor | 1 - 3 | 2 - 2 |

| Big Twelve | Iowa State | 1 - 3 | 2 - 2 |

| Conference USA | Houston | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Conference USA | Tulsa | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Conference USA | UCF | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Conference USA | East Carolina | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Conference USA | Marshall | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Conference USA | Memphis | 1 - 3 | 2 - 2 |

| Conference USA | Rice | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Conference USA | S. Miss | 3 - 1 | 2 - 2 |

| Conference USA | SMU | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Conference USA | UTEP | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Conference USA | UAB | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Conference USA | Tulane | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |

| Independents (FBS) | Notre Dame | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Independents (FBS) | Navy | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Independents (FBS) | Western Kentucky | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Independents (FBS) | Army | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Mid-American | W. Michigan | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Mid-American | Ball State | 3 - 1 | 2 - 2 |

| Mid-American | C. Michigan | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Mid-American | Kent St. | 3 - 1 | 2 - 2 |

| Mid-American | Miami (OH) | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Mid-American | Temple | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Mid-American | Bowling Green | 0 - 3 | 1 - 2 |

| Mid-American | Northern Illinois | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Mid-American | Toledo | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Mid-American | Akron | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Mid-American | Buffalo | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Mid-American | E. Michigan | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Mid-American | Ohio | 0 - 4 | 1 - 3 |

| Mountain West | Brigham Young | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |

| Mountain West | TCU | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |

| Mountain West | Utah | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Mountain West | Air Force | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Mountain West | New Mexico | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Mountain West | UNLV | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Mountain West | Wyoming | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Mountain West | Colorado St. | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Mountain West | San Diego State | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Pacific-10 | Arizona St. | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Pacific-10 | Arizona | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Pacific-10 | Oregon | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Pacific-10 | California | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 |

| Pacific-10 | Oregon State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Pacific-10 | Washington St. | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Pacific-10 | USC | 1 - 1 | 1 - 1 |

| Pacific-10 | UCLA | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Pacific-10 | Stanford | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Pacific-10 | Washington | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |

| Southeastern | Georgia | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 |

| Southeastern | LSU | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 |

| Southeastern | Florida | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |

| Southeastern | Alabama | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Southeastern | Auburn | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Southeastern | Mississippi State | 2 - 2 | 3 - 1 |

| Southeastern | Mississippi | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Southeastern | S. Carolina | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |

| Southeastern | Kentucky | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Southeastern | Tennessee | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Southeastern | Arkansas | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Southeastern | Vanderbilt | 0 - 4 | 1 - 3 |

| Sun Belt | Arkansas St. | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Sun Belt | LA-Monroe | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Sun Belt | LA-Laf | 0 - 3 | 1 - 2 |

| Sun Belt | Mid Tenn | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Sun Belt | Troy | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 |

| Sun Belt | Fla. Int. | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |

| Sun Belt | North Texas | 0 - 3 | 0 - 3 |

| Western Athletic | Boise State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Western Athletic | Fresno State | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 |

| Western Athletic | New Mexico State | 1 - 2 | 2 - 1 |

| Western Athletic | Idaho | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Western Athletic | San Jose State | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |

| Western Athletic | Hawaii | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Western Athletic | Louisiana Tech | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Western Athletic | Nevada | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 |

| Western Athletic | Utah State | 0 - 4 | 0 - 4 |

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