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Week 10 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com August 20th, 2008 We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program for FREE.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 10.

Game of the Week: #19 USF 29 (7-2) @ #25 Cincinnati 25 (6-2) Yes, Georgia plays Florida this week and Texas plays Texas Tech. Those are technically better games by record and Power Rankings, but we have talked about those teams already. What about this game between two top 25 teams playing on national television on a Thursday night while vying to displace West Virginia atop the Big East. Only the winner between South Florida and Cincinnati could do it, as neither has played the Mounatineers up to this point. Entering the game with just one loss and playing in front of a soldout Nippert Stadium crowd, Matt Grothe and the USF Bulls are too much for UC's Bearcats, and the somewhat muddled situation they have at QB. If Dustin Grutza (or Demetrius Jones or Chazz Anderson) is the best man for the job and has started every game thus far, this offense may be a little better than the computer currently views it. This could be a big swing game, not just for the Big East in 2008, but for the futures of both of these programs.


Week 10 Scores for Every FBS Game

| Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score |

| Arkansas St. @ Alabama | 95 | 9-33 |

| Tulane @ LSU | 95 | 7-46 |

| Duke @ WF | 95 | 9-31 |

| Nebraska @ Oklahoma | 95 | 17-41 |

| San Diego State @ Wyoming | 95 | 6-33 |

| Washington @ USC | 95 | 12-35 |

| Iowa State @ Oklahoma State | 95 | 13-34 |

| Fla. Int. @ LA-Laf | 88.5 | 17-34 |

| UAB @ S. Miss | 86.9 | 14-32 |

| Iowa @ Illinois | 83.6 | 13-32 |

| E. Michigan @ W. Michigan | 83.6 | 14-30 |

| Florida @ Georgia | 78.7 | 20-39 |

| Troy @ LA-Monroe | 75.4 | 15-27 |

| Kansas State @ Kansas | 73.8 | 30-35 |

| Kent St. @ Bowling Green | 67.2 | 19-29 |

| Tulsa @ Arkansas | 65.6 | 28-38 |

| San Jose State @ Idaho | 65.6 | 15-28 |

| C. Michigan @ Indiana | 60.7 | 26-36 |

| Temple @ Navy | 57.4 | 22-29 |

| Buffalo @ Ohio | 55.7 | 22-30 |

| Oregon @ California | 55.7 | 23-29 |

| Michigan @ Purdue | 52.5 | 23-28 |

| Northwestern @ Minn. | 47.5 | 33-34 |

| Kentucky @ Mississippi State | 47.5 | 15-14 |

| East Carolina @ UCF | 45.9 | 22-22 |

| North Texas @ Western Kentucky | 41 | 24-19 |

| Colorado @ Texas A&M | 37.7 | 33-30 |

| Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame | 37.7 | 23-19 |

| Tennessee @ S. Carolina | 37.7 | 30-27 |

| South Florida @ Cincinnati | 36.1 | 29-25 |

| Texas @ Texas Tech | 36.1 | 34-31 |

| Utah @ New Mexico | 36.1 | 22-18 |

| Washington St. @ Stanford | 32.8 | 23-20 |

| Miami (FL) @ Virginia | 31.1 | 16-15 |

| Rice @ UTEP | 31.1 | 27-25 |

| Florida State @ GA Tech | 29.5 | 24-21 |

| Wisconsin @ Michigan State | 19.7 | 28-20 |

| Auburn @ Mississippi | 18 | 23-13 |

| W. Virginia @ Connecticut | 14.8 | 37-22 |

| Arizona St. @ Oregon State | 9.8 | 29-16 |

| Houston @ Marshall | 8.2 | 36-18 |

| Boise State @ New Mexico State | 6.6 | 34-18 |

| Hawaii @ Utah State | 6.6 | 29-14 |

| Louisville @ Syracuse | 5 | 39-25 |

| TCU @ UNLV | 5 | 33-15 |

| Missouri @ Baylor | 5 | 34-22 |

| Fresno State @ Louisiana Tech | 5 | 39-17 |

| Clemson @ Boston College | 5 | 30-12 |

| Brigham Young @ Colorado St. | 5 | 35-19 |

| Air Force @ Army | 5 | 34-9 |


Updated FBS Standings through Week 10

| Conference | Team | Abs Record | Exp Record |

| Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 8 - 0 | 7 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | Virginia Tech | 8 - 0 | 7 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | WF | 7 - 1 | 7 - 1 |

| Atlantic Coast | Maryland | 5 - 3 | 6 - 2 |

| Atlantic Coast | Florida State | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |

| Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 7 - 1 | 5 - 3 |

| Atlantic Coast | Boston College | 4 - 4 | 4 - 4 |

| Atlantic Coast | Duke | 2 - 6 | 4 - 4 |

| Atlantic Coast | GA Tech | 5 - 4 | 4 - 5 |

| Atlantic Coast | Miami (FL) | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 |

| Atlantic Coast | Virginia | 2 - 7 | 3 - 6 |

| Atlantic Coast | NC St. | 1 - 7 | 1 - 7 |

| Big East | W. Virginia | 8 - 0 | 7 - 1 |

| Big East | South Florida | 8 - 1 | 7 - 2 |

| Big East | Cincinnati | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |

| Big East | Louisville | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |

| Big East | Pittsburgh | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |

| Big East | Connecticut | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |

| Big East | Rutgers | 2 - 6 | 4 - 4 |

| Big East | Syracuse | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |

| Big Ten | Ohio State | 9 - 0 | 9 - 0 |

| Big Ten | Illinois | 7 - 2 | 7 - 2 |

| Big Ten | Indiana | 8 - 1 | 6 - 3 |

| Big Ten | Wisconsin | 8 - 1 | 6 - 3 |

| Big Ten | Iowa | 4 - 5 | 5 - 4 |

| Big Ten | Michigan | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |

| Big Ten | Penn State | 4 - 5 | 5 - 4 |

| Big Ten | Purdue | 8 - 1 | 5 - 4 |

| Big Ten | Michigan State | 4 - 6 | 5 - 5 |

| Big Ten | Minn. | 3 - 6 | 4 - 5 |

| Big Ten | Northwestern | 5 - 4 | 4 - 5 |

| Big Twelve | Oklahoma | 9 - 0 | 9 - 0 |

| Big Twelve | Missouri | 9 - 0 | 8 - 1 |

| Big Twelve | Kansas | 8 - 1 | 7 - 2 |

| Big Twelve | Texas Tech | 7 - 2 | 7 - 2 |

| Big Twelve | Texas | 7 - 2 | 7 - 2 |

| Big Twelve | Oklahoma State | 7 - 2 | 6 - 3 |

| Big Twelve | Kansas State | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 |

| Big Twelve | Nebraska | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 |

| Big Twelve | Texas A&M | 3 - 6 | 4 - 5 |

| Big Twelve | Baylor | 2 - 7 | 3 - 6 |

| Big Twelve | Colorado | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 |

| Big Twelve | Iowa State | 1 - 8 | 2 - 7 |

| Conference USA | Houston | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |

| Conference USA | Tulsa | 6 - 3 | 6 - 3 |

| Conference USA | East Carolina | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |

| Conference USA | UCF | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |

| Conference USA | Rice | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |

| Conference USA | S. Miss | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |

| Conference USA | Memphis | 2 - 7 | 4 - 5 |

| Conference USA | Marshall | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |

| Conference USA | UTEP | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |

| Conference USA | SMU | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 |

| Conference USA | Tulane | 1 - 7 | 2 - 6 |

| Conference USA | UAB | 1 - 8 | 2 - 7 |

| Independents (FBS) | Notre Dame | 4 - 4 | 5 - 3 |

| Independents (FBS) | Navy | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 |

| Independents (FBS) | Western Kentucky | 2 - 7 | 3 - 6 |

| Independents (FBS) | Army | 1 - 8 | 2 - 7 |

| Mid-American | Ball State | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |

| Mid-American | W. Michigan | 7 - 2 | 6 - 3 |

| Mid-American | Miami (OH) | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |

| Mid-American | C. Michigan | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |

| Mid-American | Bowling Green | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 |

| Mid-American | Kent St. | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 |

| Mid-American | Ohio | 3 - 6 | 4 - 5 |

| Mid-American | Temple | 3 - 6 | 4 - 5 |

| Mid-American | Buffalo | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |

| Mid-American | Northern Illinois | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |

| Mid-American | E. Michigan | 2 - 8 | 3 - 7 |

| Mid-American | Akron | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |

| Mid-American | Toledo | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |

| Mountain West | Brigham Young | 9 - 0 | 8 - 1 |

| Mountain West | Utah | 8 - 1 | 7 - 2 |

| Mountain West | TCU | 8 - 2 | 7 - 3 |

| Mountain West | Air Force | 6 - 3 | 6 - 3 |

| Mountain West | Wyoming | 4 - 5 | 5 - 4 |

| Mountain West | New Mexico | 6 - 4 | 5 - 5 |

| Mountain West | Colorado St. | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 |

| Mountain West | San Diego State | 1 - 8 | 2 - 7 |

| Mountain West | UNLV | 2 - 7 | 2 - 7 |

| Pacific-10 | USC | 7 - 1 | 7 - 1 |

| Pacific-10 | Arizona St. | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 |

| Pacific-10 | Arizona | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 |

| Pacific-10 | California | 7 - 1 | 5 - 3 |

| Pacific-10 | Oregon | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 |

| Pacific-10 | UCLA | 3 - 5 | 4 - 4 |

| Pacific-10 | Oregon State | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |

| Pacific-10 | Washington | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |

| Pacific-10 | Washington St. | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 |

| Pacific-10 | Stanford | 1 - 8 | 2 - 7 |

| Southeastern | Georgia | 9 - 0 | 8 - 1 |

| Southeastern | LSU | 8 - 1 | 8 - 1 |

| Southeastern | Florida | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |

| Southeastern | Alabama | 7 - 2 | 6 - 3 |

| Southeastern | Auburn | 7 - 2 | 6 - 3 |

| Southeastern | Kentucky | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |

| Southeastern | Mississippi State | 4 - 5 | 5 - 4 |

| Southeastern | S. Carolina | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 |

| Southeastern | Tennessee | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 |

| Southeastern | Arkansas | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 |

| Southeastern | Mississippi | 3 - 6 | 4 - 5 |

| Southeastern | Vanderbilt | 0 - 8 | 1 - 7 |

| Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |

| Sun Belt | LA-Monroe | 6 - 3 | 5 - 4 |

| Sun Belt | Arkansas St. | 4 - 4 | 4 - 4 |

| Sun Belt | LA-Laf | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 |

| Sun Belt | North Texas | 2 - 7 | 3 - 6 |

| Sun Belt | Troy | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 |

| Sun Belt | Mid Tenn | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |

| Sun Belt | Fla. Int. | 0 - 8 | 1 - 7 |

| Western Athletic | Boise State | 7 - 1 | 7 - 1 |

| Western Athletic | Fresno State | 7 - 1 | 6 - 2 |

| Western Athletic | Nevada | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 |

| Western Athletic | Hawaii | 4 - 5 | 5 - 4 |

| Western Athletic | Idaho | 5 - 5 | 5 - 5 |

| Western Athletic | New Mexico State | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 |

| Western Athletic | San Jose State | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 |

| Western Athletic | Louisiana Tech | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 |

| Western Athletic | Utah State | 0 - 9 | 1 - 8 |

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