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Article:Proven vs potential

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From www.thebaseballfix.blogspot.com

The Baseball season is closing in on us fast, and with that fantasy baseball drafts are getting set to begin. So, me being the fanatic I am, I decided to hop in a few mock drafts at www.mockdraft.com. The site is great for any fantasy player as they provide up to date Average Draft Position (ADP) reports. For those not familiar with ADP it is a tool that demonstrates where player(s) are being taken in drafts based on a snake format. The biggest surprise through early ADP reports? Ryan Braun.

Braun was being taken 15th overall which makes him an early second rounder in most formats. Now, Braun had an unbelievable rookie season, but should he really be placed ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins and Chipper Jones? Well, Braun is going anywhere from two to five rounds ahead of these proven veterans. The point here is people are taking an unproven commodity in the round they can not afford to be wrong in (rds 1-3). Am I saying Braun will not duplicate last season? Well not completely but why should I want to be the owner who gambles on it. Especially when proven studs like Howard, Sizemore and Johan are still on the board and I can pick up a tier two 3B a couple of rounds later as the ADP reports show us. You simply can not afford to miss on any of your first three picks in a snake draft. You need proven players to build a core around. And while Braun will probably be a star for many years to come, he still has under 500 big league at bats and could just as easily hit .270 with 24/85/80/15. Is there anything wrong with that for a second year player? Not at all, there is however something very wrong with that from a second round pick. Further more A-Ram has averaged .303/35/105/88 over the last three years, yet he is going two rounds later.

It is your responsibility as a fantasy owner to build a core around proven and mix in some gamble on potential. You simply do not due this by taking second year players in round two of any draft. If Ryan Braun comes out this season and duplicates his season again, fine. But I will take my Howard/A-Ram split any day, cause I know what I am getting


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