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Dallas Cowboys -2.0 (-110) - Sun Oct 26 ‘08 1:00p Now at fist glance, it appears that the Dallas Cowboys are up against it when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. After all, the Dallas defense has been non-existent lately, and the Cowboys were even shredded by the lowly St. Louis Rams in a shocking upset loss last week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are seven points from being 7-0 this season, and much of the country saw their devastating defense dominate the Seattle Seahawks on national television in prime time last Sunday night. However, because of this, we are getting fantastic line value here, as surely you would have taken Dallas laying less than a field goal at home if this line was offered two weeks ago. Furthermore, the Cowboys need this game to avoid the possibility of shockingly dropping to last place in the NFC East, while the Bucs are breathing easier, tied for the NFC South lead. Also do not forget that Tampa Bay has a disturbing habit of calling off the dogs early, as was the case Sunday night when the final score was an extremely deceptive 20-10. Anybody that watched that contest knows that the Seahawks looked totally outclassed and that the Bucs could have named the score. That kind of approach would get the Buccaneers in trouble here vs. an angry Cowboys team that will be determined to prove all of the detractors that are writing them off wrong, especially in front of their home fans. Besides, while yes the Bucs could be 7-0, they could also be 0-3 on the road, as their only road win was somewhat gift wrapped by a Chicago Bears penalty in overtime while Tampa was punting the ball away. We will opt to buy low here and back a proud Dallas team at this bargain price at home. NFL Free Pick: Cowboys -2 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits
New Orleans Saints +3.0 (-110) - Sun Oct 26 ‘08 1:00p Surely, when the NFL picked the San Diego Chargers and the New Orleans Saints to travel to London to play this game in Wembley Stadium, the league was not banking on both teams having 3-4 records at this point. That said, we like the Saints to bounce back well here after getting embarrassed 30-7 at Carolina last week. The Panthers themselves were coming off of a terrible blowout loss prior to that game, and we look for New Orleans to have a similar reaction here. After all, quarterback Drew Brees is having an excellent season, completing 68.4 percent of his passes and averaging 8.46 yards per pass attempt while throwing for over 2200 yards and 12 touchdowns already. We look for him to have his way with a very disappointing San Diego defense that is allowing 366.3 total yards per game overall and 392.2 yards per game on the road. Meanwhile, all is not well with the Chargers under Norv Turner, and we expect them to continue to underperform all year. In fact, despite their record, the Saints may be better than any team that San Diego has beaten this year, as their three wins have come vs. the Jets, Raiders and overrated Patriots. Take the Saints as underdogs to pull the outright upset across the Atlantic. NFL Free Pick: Saints +3 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints u45.5 - Sun Oct 26 ‘08 1:00p Last year, when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.” Dolphins kicker Jay Feely: “The field was like ice.” Both teams were jet-lagged and inconvenienced travelling overseas. It was not pretty football. We should expect more of the same in 2008. If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The lookahead forecast for London on Sunday shows a likelihood of rain falling throughout the game, leaving the field in ‘quagmire’ condition once again. Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high powered offenses. But let’s not forget that these two offenses combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions this past weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well. After a streak of five consecutive ‘Overs’ to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding a three game Under streak of their own. In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative gameplans, leading to another low scoring affair. Take the Under. - Courtesy of Ted Sevransky
Carolina Panthers -4.0 - Sun Oct 26 ‘08 1:00p The Arizona Cardinals are turning into the NFLs version of Doctor Jekyll and Mr.Hyde . The Cards have won all 3 of their home games this season, but are just 1-2 on the road, including an embarrassing 56-35 beat down at the hands of the NY Jets . Last year, Arizona delivered in 6 of their 8 home games, and were the polar opposite on the road ,losing 6 of 8 trips to the gridiron. The Cards are just 10-41 SU in their L/51 away tilts, including 3-18 SU in an eastern time zone, and until they prove other wise are not a good bet. Arizona is off a bye week, and will be rested, but traveling all the way across the country to play a east coast affair against a Carolina team that is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their L/7 home games dating back to last season, is a negative situation. This season the Panthers have mauled their opposition, when playing as hosts , as is evident by out scoring them by an 108-33 count .Im betting their home field dominance continues this Sunday. Final notes & Key Trends: Carolina is 38-14 ATS against sub par defensive teams that allow 24 + PPG like Arizona, winning SU by an average of 7.6 PPG. Projected score: Carolina 28 Arizona 17 - Courtesy of Alex Smart