The 2008 Final 4 is here in men’s NCAA basketball. We will preview the second game in a moment, Kansas-North Carolina, but first it’s an analysis of Memphis-UCLA from the standpoint of the bettor. Bookmaker has Memphis as the two-point favorite, while BetUs Sportsbook has the total at 134.
We already did a breakdown of several proposition odds for Final 4 bets. Memphis comes in at 37-1 straight up, yet just 17-19 against the spread. Though the Tigers have covered their last two, they are 6-12 their last 18 in the back pocket.
UCLA is 35-3 straight up and 22-15 according to the sportsbooks. While the media focuses on UCLA’s defense, sharp players let facts guide them. In the numbers that the best sports handicappers use, it’s actually UCLA with a modest edge on offense, with Memphis equally nudging out the Bruins on defense.
UCLA incredibly makes 47.9 percent of their shots against teams normally allowing 43.0, a +4.9 for the Bruins offense. Memphis is +4.6 making 46.9 to 42.3 percent.
Contrary to public perception, Memphis has the better ratio on defense. John Calipari’s boys allow just 38.8 percent to teams normally getting 44.5 compared to UCLA’s 41.7 percent to teams normally getting 45.1.
Here are some against the spread betting trends: UCLA is 0-5 off spread win but 22-7 as an underdog. Memphis is 1-6 off a spread win. All the spread and over/under winners for the Final 4, NBA and Major League baseball are at OffshoreInsiders.com