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Article:College Basketball Tourney Bubble Watch 3-13

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The last weekend of the season is upon us as the conference tournaments are coming to a close. The selection committee is watching closely, as they will make their decision late Sunday afternoon.

Remember, there are 65 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 34 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I

From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 58 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 27 at-large bids. Out of thees 58 teams, 30 come from major conferences and 28 from minor ones.

This means that there are SEVEN remaining at-large bids that will go to the 20 "bubble" teams that I have listed...  

NCAA Tournament Locks (55)

Autobids (italicized if a projected winner) (31)

North Carolina (ACC),
Binghamton (America East),
Xavier (Atlantic 10),
East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun),
Louisville (Big East),
Portland State (Big Sky),
Radford (Big South),
Michigan St (Big Ten+1),
Cal State Northridge (Big West),
Oklahoma State (Big 12),
VCU (Colonial Athletic),
Memphis (Conference USA),
Cleveland State (Horizon League),
Cornell (Ivy League), Siena (MAAC),
Buffalo (Mid-American),
Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley),
Morgan St (MEAC),
BYU (Mountain West),
Robert Morris (Northeast),
Morehead State (Ohio Valley),
American (Patriot League),
Tennessee (SEC),
Chattanooga (Southern),
Stephen F Austin (Southland),
Alabama St (SWAC),
North Dakota St (Summit League),
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt),
UCLA (Pac-10),
Gonzaga (West Coast),
Utah St (Western Athletic)

At-Large (24)

SEC (1) - LSU
ACC (5) - Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida St
Big East (6) - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, Marquette, West Virginia
Big Ten+1 (2) - Purdue, Illinois
Big 12 (5) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (3) - Washington, Arizona St, California
Atlantic 10 (1) - Dayton
Horizon (1) - Butler
Mountain West (1) - Utah

Should Be In Even With Tourney Loss (unless very very ugly) (3)

SEC (0) -
ACC (1) - Boston College
Big East (0) -
Big Ten+1 (2) - Wisconsin, Ohio St
Big 12 (0) -
Pac-10 (0) - Other Conferences (0) -

Teams on the Bubble (20)

SEC (4) - South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky
ACC (2) - Maryland, Virginia Tech
Big East (1) - Providence
Big Ten+1 (3) - Michigan, Minnesota, Penn St
Big 12 (1) - Kansas State Pac-10 (1) - Arizona
Atlantic 10 (2) - Temple, Rhode Island
Conference USA (1) - Tulsa
Missouri Valley (1) - Creighton
Mountain West (3) - New Mexico, San Diego St, UNLV
Southern (1) - Davidson

Remember that there are only SEVEN at-large spots left. As of Friday morning, I would rank them in the following order:

Michigan [20-12 (9-9), RPI: 43, SOS: 10]
Minnesota [22-9 (9-9), RPI: 36, SOS: 37]
Penn St. [22-10 (10-8), RPI: 67, SOS: 120]
South Carolina [21-8 (10-6), RPI: 49, SOS: 94]
New Mexico [21-11 (12-4), RPI: 66, SOS: 82]
St. Mary's [25-6 (10-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 143]
San Diego St. [22-8 (11-5), RPI: 37, SOS: 48]


cut line

Florida [23-9 (9-7), RPI: 46, SOS: 94]
Arizona [19-13 (9-9), RPI: 59, SOS: 31]
Creighton [26-7 (14-4), RPI: 39, SOS: 111]
UNLV [21-10 (9-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 87]
Auburn [21-10 (10-6), RPI: 64, SOS: 63]
Maryland [19-12 (7-9), RPI: 62, SOS: 30]
Davidson [25-7 (18-2), RPI: 69, SOS: 164]
Temple [20-11 (11-5), RPI: 40, SOS: 36]
Kentucky [20-12 (8-8), RPI: 79, SOS: 59]
Providence [19-13 (10-8), RPI: 70, SOS: 52]
Virginia Tech [18-13 (7-9), RPI: 56, SOS: 24]
Tulsa [22-9 (9-5), RPI: 64, SOS: 126]
Kansas State [20-11 (9-7), RPI: 77, SOS: 116]
Rhode Island [22-10 (11-5), RPI: 68, SOS: 133]
George Mason [22-10 (13-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 100]

Games to watch this weekend (my picks italicized, winners bolded)

Friday
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 8 Virginia Tech, ESPN2, noon
No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 8 Minnesota, ESPN, noon
W1 LSU vs. E4 Kentucky, 1 p.m.
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Ohio State, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
E2 South Carolina vs. W3 Mississippi State, 3:15 p.m.
No. 2 Tulsa vs. No. 3 UAB, 4 p.m.
Patriot Final - No. 2 Holy Cross at No. 1 American, ESPN2, 4:45 p.m.
No. 1 Xavier vs. No. 4 Temple, 6:30 p.m.
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 7 Michigan, 6:30 p.m.
No. 1 Memphis vs. No. 5 Houston, 6:30 p.m.
No. 2 Wake Forest vs. No. 7 Maryland, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 4 Villanova, ESPN, 7 p.m.
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 5 Texas, 7 p.m.
E1 Tennessee vs. W4 Alabama, 7:30 p.m.
No. 7 Duquesne vs. No. 3 Dayton, 9 p.m.
No. 7 West Virginia vs. No. 6 Syracuse, ESPN, 9 p.m.
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 6 Penn State, 9 p.m.
No. 1 BYU vs. No. 4 San Diego State, 9 p.m.
No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 1 Washington, 9 p.m.
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 6 Boston College, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Missouri, 9:30 p.m.
W2 Auburn vs. E3 Florida, 9:45 p.m.
No. 2 Utah vs. No. 6 Wyoming, 11:30 p.m.
No. 6 USC vs. No. 2 UCLA, 11:30 p.m.
Eastern Washington @ St. Mary's, 10:00 p.m.

Saturday
No. 6 UMBC at No. 1 Binghamton, ESPN2, 11 a.m.
CUSA Final - Tul/UAB vs. Mem /Hou, 11:35 a.m.
LSU /UK vs. USC/MSU, ESPN2, 1 p.m.
UNC /VT vs. FSU/GT, ESPN, 1:30 p.m.
MSU /Minn vs. Wis/OHSt, 1:40 p.m.
Tenn /Ala vs. Aub/Fla, ESPN2, 3:15 p.m.
WF/Mary vs. Duke /BC, ESPN, 4 p.m.
Ill/ Mich vs. Pur/PSU, 4:05 p.m.
A-10 Final - Xav /Tem vs. Duq/Day, ESPN2, 6 p.m.
Big 12 Final - Bay/Tex vs. OKSt /Mis, ESPN, 6 p.m.
Pac-10 Final - AZSt/Wash vs. USC/ UCLA, 6 p.m.
MEAC Final - Morg /Cop vs. SCSt/Nrfk, ESPNU, 7 p.m.
MWC Final - BYU /SDSt vs. Utah/Wyo, 7 p.m.
MAC Final - Ball/ Buf vs. BG/Akr, ESPN2, 8 p.m.
Big East Final - Lou /Nova vs. WVU/Syra, ESPN, 9 p.m.
SWAC Final - Jack/PVU vs. ALSt /ARPB, ESPNU, 9 p.m.
WAC Final - NMSt/ UTSt vs. Nev/LT, ESPN2, 10 p.m.
Big West Final - CSN /UCSB vs. LBSt/Pac, ESPN2, 11:59 p.m.

Sunday
ACC Final - UNC /VT/FSU/GT vs. WF/Mary/Duke/BC, ESPN, 1 p.m.
SEC Final - LSU/UK/USC/MSU vs. Tenn /Ala/Aub/Fla, 1 p.m.
Southland Final - Nich/UTSA vs. SFA /TXCC, ESPN2, 1 p.m.
Big Ten+1 Final - MSU /Minn/Wis/OHSt vs. Ill/Mich/Pur/PSU, 3:30 p.m.

Any Thoughts??? Feel free to comment below!


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