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Article:Are The 46 legit?

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from www.thebaseballfix.com

 

Maybe it is due to the fact that he grew up in my home town, maybe it is the fact he was a first round pick once upon a time, but no matter what it was, I am in a small minority of folks who are sold on Carlos Pena as a great pick for first base. Now let me start right away by saying he is not a tier one first baseman. There are three of those (Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder), but is he really not a tier two? All I keep hearing is how the 46 homers was a fluke and he will revert back to form. Well, 46 is a bit much but simply put Pena's form is something like .265 with 35 to 40 home runs. You don't believe me, you say? Well if you look at Pena's HR per plate appearance you may be shocked. Last year he hit a HR every 11 PA's (10.6 to be exact) prior to that he was hitting a HR every 19 PA so it was quite a jump. However Pena was just entering his prime (27) and his contact rate was also the highest it has been, indicating him using better pitch selection. Now another reason I chose to discuss Pena and the unwillingness of owners to "trust" him was due to the fact of how willing they are to "trust" Prince Fielder. If you run Fielders numbers side by side with Pena you see an eerie similar pattern in terms of long balls. How close? Well Last year Prince hit a HR every.. Yup, you guessed it 11 PA, but no it does not stop their friends. Fielder saw his HR/PA jump from "gulp" 20 PA per HR up to 11. So just a quick recap here. Pena goes from 19 to 11 and Fielder goes from 20 to 11, in a better hitting division mind you, yet he is a tier one stud and Carlos Pena is a one year fluke? Like I said maybe I am in the minority.


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