Week 13: The Neverending Start/Sit Mailbag
| 4
|
We're back with a Week 13 edition of the Neverending Start/Sit Mailbag. I have renamed the mailbag this as a result of two factors: 1) Whenever I receive new e-mail questions, even if they are after the first mailbag post, I try to add them to the blog to share with readers; and 2) I tend to be a bit long-winded, which may turn some people off, but I feel is necessary for appropriate analysis and as good customer service. I feel bad when matchups that I suggest go awry and, thus, try to put as much analysis as I can, within reason. Alright, on to some long answers to short questions. As usual, my picks are in bold for those who prefer to peruse rather than read.
Happy reader and returning mailbagger Steven says:
Thanks for the help last week. Who should I start? First with the RB's, which 2 should I start: Jamal Lewis @ ARI, M. Jones-Drew @ IND, Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) vs. DET, Earnest Graham @ NO? Now on with the WRs : Braylon Edwards @ ARI, Greg Jennings @ DAL, Roy Williams @ MIN, Steve Smith vs. SF, Chris Henry vs. PIT? Which team should I start: Seahawks or Minnesota? Thanks a lot.
Hey Steven,
Based on the voting of our readers it looks like you should go with Braylon Edwards and Greg Jennings as your WRs and Jamal Lewis and Adrian Peterson as your RBs, although the vote was very close. The following is my analysis of the matchups:
Jamal Lewis has a decent matchup this week going against Arizona's 15th-ranked rushing defense. The Cardinals slipped up this past week against the 49ers, allowing the thus far impotent Frank Gore to have a breakout game. The two games before this the Cardinals had looked superior on run D, giving up 72 yards and an NFL record -18 yards to the Lions. Needless to say, they took a break from that dominance last week. Lewis also surprised last week, in the sense that it was only his second game over 100 yards and it included a TD. Even better, in the past four weeks Lewis' lowest total of touches was 19 and he has been well over 20 most games, topping out last week at 31. As a result, I think he is a great play this weekend in what should be another high scoring contest.
MoJo Drew has really been a disappointment to me this year. Drafted in many first rounds, he only has one game of 20+ fantasy points and has generally kept his output at around 10 FP and in most cases below. He goes up this week against the Colts defense that is ranked 16th against the run. This isn't too bad, but they haven't given up more than 120 yards on the ground in 8 week, which means we are likely to get a split between Fragile Fred and MoJo of about 50 yards each, with MoJo getting the most opportunities for the TD. As a result, I don't see MoJo as a great play this week.
All Day is a tough one this week. Clearly, when healthy, he is an every-week starter, regardless of opponent. This week, we're not sure exactly how much he will be used, but we are well aware he could put up 150+ and a TD. All Day isn't a guaranteed starter yet, but if he does play he will be going up against the 9th-ranked run D, which had held opponents under 100 yards rushing in the four games prior to playing the Packers. Even against the Pack they gave up a decent 100 yards. In their previous matchup, All Day was held to 66 yards on 20 carries and 4 receptions for 52 yards, with 0 TDs. As a result, his matchup does not look that good to compound the questions about how much he will play. But he is still All Day.
Earnest Graham doesn't have a very good matchup this week either, going up against an underrated Saints D that has given up 100 yards on the ground 3 times, but twice in the past three games. Even those performances, however, were not very strong (103 and 133 yards, respectively). Even more impressive, the Saints are holding opponents to 3.6 YPC, fifth best in the league. While many pundits are hopping on the Graham Bandwagon, I am not so sure this is the best week for him. With Jeff Garcia also hurting, the Saints may also choose to stack the line and make Garcia and Co. beat them through the air.
After looking at these matchups, I would agree with readers that Lewis and All Day Peterson are the way to go. Most leagues allow you to set rosters for Sunday games later in the week, but if you can't, I would replace Peterson with Graham, since it is tough without 100% assurance and the risk of a 0 to put an injured player in the lineup. Hope this helps. On to WRs...
For the WRs, right off the bat I would eliminate Henry. He is up against the 1st-ranked pass D of the Steelers and is the third option on a very deep team. That is not to guarantee he won't blow up, but he is clearly the weakest of the four choices. For Steve Smith, I don't think he is a viable fantasy WR for the rest of the year, regardless of matchup. If he can't do it against New Orleans than he is doomed. I say this because he doesn't have a TD or 100-yard game since Week 6 and can't be counted on consistently without a solid QB.
Braylon Edwards should start for you this week. He is a top-5 WR who has proven his worth in tough and easy matchups. He didn't thrill again last week, but that still got him a TD and 57 yards, which won't leave you complaining, and belongs to a powerful offense. Even still, he has a solid matchup this week against a 20th-ranked pass D of the Cardinals that has given up hefty yardage totals the last three weeks. Have him in your lineup.
Your WR2 slot is the battle of matchup vs. performance. Roy Williams has the best matchup for a WR in Minnesota's worst-rated pass D, but after showing a glimmer of his former self, reverted to the inconsistent WR we have grown to dread last week. That said, last game against the Vikings, which came all the way back in week 2, he put 7 receptions for 111 yards and TD. Jennings has a solid matchup, too, with the Cowboys secondary ranked 21st against the pass. Even better, the Cowboys are a top rush D and the Packers should attack through the air. He has been the model of consistency, only registering two sub-10 FP games in weeks 6 and 10. Two of his last 5 have been for more than 20 FP and he is always a threat to take it to the house on a short screen. As a result, I would go with the consistent Jennings. The Williams matchup is tough to pass up, but if you play Edwards and Jennnings, you should get yourself a minimum of 25 FP and a high ceiling.
Hope these analyses have helped and please let your friends know where the best place is to get fantasy anlaysis (hint: Flea Fanatics). Take it easy,
- Shimmering T.
Champion of the mailbag and Flea Fanatic Hall of Famer, Corey:
Sup T, I seem to have settled with the majority of my lineup, but Lee Evans let me down this week. Reggie Brown hadn't really been in the equation of my lineup until now. He put up a respectable 11 points against the Pats. With Evans being as erratic as a receiver could possibly be, as I've expressed many times, I'm uneasy with him. So the question arises; Evans Vs Brown Vs Hilliard Thanks again! -Corey
Hey Corey,
I share your frustration about Lee Evans. The guy has killed two of my fantasy teams this year, the only two that I am struggling to make the playoffs in. Evans has a solid matchup (this has become a familiar refrain) against the Redskins, who are ranked 14th against the pass, but have been lit up every week but last, in which they played an injured Jeff Garcia. That said, with the unfortunate death of Sean Taylor, I can only see the Redskins coming out fired up in honor of their teammate and coming after Trent Edwards. Edwards and Evans never clicked in his first go-around and I don't trust Evans enough to put him in such an important matchup for you. Besides, you can only imagine how frustrating it would be to have Evans spoil not only another week, but your playoff hopes.
Reggie Brown is an interesting case. He was given up on earlier in the season, but has come back with some decent performance, including TDs in two of the last three games. He is going against the 15th-ranked pass D of the Seahawks, which is not a bad matchup, and they seem to be up and down every other week with this week scheduled to be a downer. There are questions surrounding who will be throwing Brown the ball, but both QBs have been able to hook Brown up with nice games. It is tough to put him in, however, with only 12 catches in the last 4 games and a reliance on the long TD for many of his FP.
Ike Hilliard has a great matchup this week against the Saints and if Jeff Garcia were completely healthy I would probably recommend going with him. However, Jeff Garcia is definitely hurting and his ability to perform is a huge question mark. Hilliard has only put up 3 viable fantasy games this season as well, and only registered 51 yards against the Saints last time around.
Clearly you have three WR that pose an array of questions and leave a little to be desired. Based on the analysis and a gut feeling, I would go with Reggie Brown. Evans has hurt you enough, and like an abusive girlfriend, should not be allowed to stomp on your fantasy heart. Garcia's injury leaves too many questions about Hilliard and he really hasn't performed since week 7.
Best of luck tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday, and I'll be rooting for you to make the playoffs.
- Shimmering T.
Join the Fleaflicker or Flea Fanatics Facebook Groups!
Another happy customer, Brian, politely asks:
Dear Flea Fanatics, I play in a 12 team league that uses a basic performance scoring system. In addition, players also receive one point per reception and 0.25 points per rushing attempt.
We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 PK, and 1 DEF each week.
My current roster is:
QB: Brett Favre, Marc Bulger RB: LT, Reggie Bush, Jerious Norwood, Kevin Faulk WR: TJ Housh, Plaxico Burress, Donald Driver, Joey Galloway, DJ Hackett, Jerricho Cotchery, Santana Moss PK: Adam Vinatieri DEF: Tampa Bay, Chicago
I am trying to improve my team and have been offered the following trade:
Plaxico Burress for Kevin Jones
Would you make this trade? If not, what would you try to target for the playoff push? Thank you for your help. I really appreciate it. Sincerely,
Brian
Hey Brian,
Thanks for writing again and thanks for the trade question. I have been trying to swing a few deals myself.
Lets take a look at the deal:
First, it is important to take into consideration your position in the league. I am assuming you are shoring up for the playoffs and have already clinched. I am taking into consideration week 14, assuming you don't have a bye. If this is not the case, and you still need to qualify for the playoffs then you should prioritize a good week 13 matchup above all else when trading. Other situations will require different considerations ( i.e. if you need to win next week you need to look for solid week 13 matchups; without a bye, weeks 14-16; with one, weeks 15-16.) Now on to the deal...
Plaxico has four solid matchups remaining in the season, going against the 25th, 22nd, 14th, and 29th pass defenses in weeks 13-16. The deal definitely wouldn't be a good one for you if Burress was healthy, but his health is still a huge question mark. Last week's solid performance isn't as reassuring as it usually would be, since his yardage and TD came in garbage time against the league's worst pass defense. As far as your team goes, you have some solid but inconsistent WRs, highlighted by Driver and Galloway. Hackett is out for the next few weeks, so his value is limited to late in the fantasy playoffs or the championship game. As a result, Burress would likely start for you in most the remaining games despite his injury questions.
Jones on the other hand has a tough next two weeks against the best and 4th-ranked rush defenses (Vikes and Dallas). This might be why the person is trying to trade with you; because they need to make the playoffs and need better matchups. Reggie Bush on the other hand, the player you would be rotating with Kevin Jones if you traded for him, has a pretty nice schedule and with the point per reception in your league is too valuable to keep on the bench. Jones would add depth, but likely wouldn't crack your lineup unless Bush is injured. Jones has also been very inconsistent, with the Lions porous defense forcing the offense into throwing mode early. He also hasn't caught as many balls as you'd expect and doesn't get as many rushing attempts as Bush.
As a result of this, I wouldn't do the trade you have been offered. As far as what you should do. Here are my suggestions:
Non-trade route: I would pick up both Aaron Stecker and Pierre Thomas to ensure that you have Bush's backup if he is injured, thereby increasing your depth. If Michael Turner is available, I would also pick him up to backup LT in case he is injured and also in case San Diego rest LT down the stretch with the division locked up. Drop Cotchery and Hackett and/or Faulk to make room for these three players. Patrick Cobbs, the new starting RB of the Dolphins, is another option and, if he is available and you can't get the other guys, I would also try to pick him up.
Trade route: If you are in the market for a RB, I would look at either Ron Dayne or Ryan Grant. They shouldn't cost you an arm and a leg and should have nice ends to the season. Grant in particular has a soft schedule in weeks 13-16. Try tempting them with Plax, although I think you don't really need another RB. For WR, I would maybe try to get Deion Branch or Calvin Johnson to fill your 3rd WR role with Joey Galloway. The owner of the Lions has told coaches to throw more to the rookie, which has happened the last two weeks. Johnson also faces a fairly soft closing pass D schedule. Branch has been the number 1 target of Matt Hasselbeck when healthy and shouldn't cost you too much. Hasselbeck has been awesome of late and Branch should be a beneficiary. The injury to Hackett also should mean an increase in touches.
Hope this analysis and potential routes help you out. Your team looks very solid and should make a good run in the playoffs. Best of luck!
And best of luck to all of you in the biggest week of the fantasy regular season! Thanks for reading,
Shimmering T. at Flea Fanatics
