Week 11: Start/Sit Mailbag
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Corey writes in after another great week:
Hey, Another good week for me, aside from All Day getting hurt. My heart broke when I saw that happen. Anyway, I have a complicated start/sit this week: I have a few guys who are underperforming and I don’t really know what to do. Burress Vs Evans Vs Hilliard Vs Houshmanzadeh Vs S. Young Vs J. Chatman (I need 4) I know its kind of extensive but I can’t really sort it out. Burress is hurt, but he’s still Burress; Evans is playing the Pats; Hilliard is most likely a weekly filler on anyone’s roster; Houshmandzadeh has been struggling as of late, plus Henry is back; Young had a huge week last week (He’s the only one I’m pretty sure I would start this week); And Chatman had a big week, too, but no matter how good his line is, its still the Dolphins. Once again, Thanks for the help!
-Corey
Hey Corey,
Glad to hear you are doing well! What is your record now? Bound for the playoffs? (I think most of the Shimmering T mailbag is headed to the playoffs; what can I say, my readers are intelligent.)
Plaxico Burress: Burress has a great mtachup this week, but his injury has been hurting fantasy owners left and right. Three straight weeks under 5 fantasy points is reason to be concerned.
Lee Evans: Evans is one of the most inconsistent WRs in the game and has a very tough matchup this week against the team from God (your reference from a few weeks ago). He had 1 catch for 7 yards in the teams' first matchup.
Ike Hilliard: Hilliard has a decent matchup, although Tampa should be able to run on the Falcons limiting the value of a Hilliard play. That said, he has been fairly consistent at at least getting some points.
TJ Houshmandzadeh: Housh is a must start every week, regardless of matchup. He has a TD in all but one game. While the return of Chris Henry might take chances away, it also takes away the focus of defensive secondaries who can't key in on TJ. Even with Henry last year, TJ had a very productive year.
Selvin Young: Young has a tough matchup against the 4th-ranked run D of the Titans, although MoJo and Freddy Taylor ran well against them. If he gets the ball exclusively, it is tough not to start him.
Jesse Chatman: Chatman goes up against a decent Eagles D and always has the precarious situation of belonging to the Miami offense. He will likely be down early and by a lot, meaning he might get limited carries.
I would go with Young, Chatman, Houshmandzadeh, and Plaxico in this situation. Young and Chatman should get you at least 8 points each (if Young starts) and Chatman is a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, which decreases the negative impact of playing from behind. Housh is an automatic starter in my book and should put up at least 10, while Plax gives you the potential for a huge game, has a very good matchup, and is more reliable this week than your other choices despite his injury.
Hope this helps you in this week's games!
Good luck on Sunday and Monday,
- Shimmering T.
The elusive JEG writes:
Shimmer, Lost my #2 QB, Griese. John Beck, Brodie Croyle, or T. Jackson? I know Beck would be in the WAG class, but the other two are injury prone and I'm hoping for long-term results too. What do you think?
Hey JEG,
It's been a long time, thanks for writing in again.
You have a tough question because two of the three have no experience and the other one plays like he doesn't have any. I think this is definitely a situation where the matchup should dictate who you throw out in your fantasy lineup. Let's look into the matchups:
While it is important to look at the overall pass D, lets look at recent trends and whether the opposing defenses will bring a lot of pressure, since this is normally the curse of first-time starters—pressure in the pocket that results in quick feet and forced decisions. Then, lets also look at comparable situations.
Beck: vs. Eagles, 25 sacks (Miami has given up 17), 23rd overall against the pass (222 yd/g), Last 3 (226 yd/g), Comparable: Vikings (Week 8) gave up 151 yards and 1TD. Based on this, I think you should probably expect about the same numbers as the Vikings, but with a couple INTs thrown in.
Jackson: vs. Oakland, 14 sacks (Minnesota has given up 24), 4th overall against the pass (183.2 yd/g), Last 3 (141 yd/g), comparable: KC (Week 7), 177 yards, 1 INT. I would look for something comparable, maybe even less considering the Raiders have a terrible run defense, which should lead to the Vikings going almost exclusively to the run.
Croyle: vs. Indy, 16 sacks, but remember they just lost Dwight Freeney their best pass rusher, (KC has given up a whopping 29 sacks), 2nd overall in pass D (164 yards/g), Last 3 (169 yards/g), Comparable: Carolina (Week 8) 185 yards, 1 INT. Prior to this analysis I was thinking Croyle, but the sacks are concerning, as is the superior pass D of the Colts. The one thing he has going for him is that Indy should roll in this game, so he may be forced to throw a lot. Is this a good thing though?
After looking this over, I think you're in a tough position, but if I had to go with one QB, I would probably go with Croyle. My concern with Beck is that if he starts out slow, he will be replaced by Lemon. With Jackson, the Vikings will be very stupid if they do anything but run against the Raiders, and he has shown no ability to lead a passing attack this season, let along against a top-notch pass D. While Croyle isn't ideal, he at least has some experience, should be throwing the ball a lot, and the Colts are without Freeney for the year. I wouldn't expect a lot out of Croyle, but you have to be happy with a 10-point performance from the QB position this week. I think Croyle is the most likely to get that.
Hope this helps!
Best of luck this weekend and I'll be rooting for Brodie,
- Shimmering T.
Justin of “Thursdays with Justin” and self-proclaimed “Master of the Quick Fire” question without any greeting on either side of his e-mail writes:
Graham v Fargas v Grant Taylor v Fargas v Grant TO v A Johnson v Plax v Pick 2 TO v J Chatman v S Young v Fargas v Grant v Taylor one for wk and for year Taylor v Chatman v Young James v Taylor v Fargas v Grant James v Jackson James v TO v Jackson v Wayne Pick 2 Holmes v R Williams Morris v C Brown v Fargas Pick 2 assuming Brown and Morris start A Johnson v C Johnson Welker v Smith Branch v Chambers Shockey v Olsen Morris v C Johson Jacobs v Grant
Hey Justin,
Thanks as always for the questions. I like the quick-fire style.
Anyways, on to the questions:
Graham vs. Fargas vs. Grant: This one is between Grant and Graham for me. I'm going with Grant because I think the Packers will win handily and generate more scoring opportunities than the Bucs. Grant should get you at least 10 points against the 19th ranked run D.
Taylor vs. Fargas vs. Grant: If you mean Chester Taylor, I would go with him. He should see a ton of carries and the Raiders run D is abysmal at best. Should be a top 5 back this week. If All Day was running, I'd forecast 513 yards and 7 TDs. Unfortunately, he's not. That’s the worst thing about the injury, that this matchup would have been the union of the most dominant runner in years with the softest run D this side of another terrible run D. The world might have exploded I tell you.
TO v A Johnson v Plax: I go with TO and Johnson. There is no way you can't start TO on any week and Johnson has arguably the best matchup this side of the Bengals with the Saints D.
TO v J Chatman v S Young v Fargas v Grant v Taylor: TO's gotta be the pick for the week and year. He's phenomenal in that offense.
Taylor v Chatman v Young: I go with Taylor again, for reasons above.
James v Taylor v Fargas v Grant: What can I say, I love Taylor this week.
James v Jackson: Gotta go with Steven Jackson against the 49ers. He will have another big day against a team with no confidence on either side of the ball.
James v TO v Jackson v Wayne: I go with Jackson and TO. Both must starts.
Holmes v R Williams: Holmes on this one. Love the matchup against the Jets. They are terrible all over the place.
Morris v C Brown v Fargas Pick 2: I would go with Morris and Fargas. I don't think that Brown will get many carries this week and Fargas is at least guaranteed most of the rushes for Oakland and the Vikes haven't been as dominant against the run the past few weeks.
A Johnson v C Johnson: I go with Andre because of the great matchup and his performance earlier in the season. Chad has competition for the ball and has a slightly touch matchup against the 9th-ranked pass D of Cardinals.
Welker v Smith: Welker. Buffalo is terrible at everything on defense and Welker should continue his torrid pace along with the rest of the offense.
Branch v Chambers: I go with Branch this week. I dropped Chambers in one of my leagues as Rivers is not consistent enough in the passing game to be trusted on any week, and Chambers isn't the most consistent performer either.
Shockey v Olsen: I would go with Shockey against a soft Lions defense.
Morris v C Johson: I would go with Chad on this one. Morris didn't run too well against the 49ers and the Bears will be much tougher.
Jacobs v Grant: I go with Grant because he will get the goaline carries.
...And I'm spent.
Thanks again and good luck this weekend!
- Shimmering T.
Jam Master J writes in with the reference of the week:
What up Shim shimmering shim shimmy roo! (that's from Ace Ventura 2...have you seen it?)
Steven Jackson or Branding Jacobs?
Chad Johnson or Anquan Boldin?
Thanks again!
JAM
Hey JAM,
It's good to hear from you as always. Love the varied intros and the Ace Ventura reference. Great movies.
Hope the last couple weeks have treated your team well. Here we go with your questions:
Steven Jackson or Branding Jacobs?
I go with Jackson this week. He looked good last week and should get more touches with a week under his belt. Jacobs scares me only because he doesn't get the goaline carries. Jackson is THE back and should be able to run free against the 49ers. I like him for 100+ and at least 1 TD. I can see Jacobs getting the yards, but TDs are always up in the air. Remember how Jackson went off at the end of last year? We could be in for a similar ending to this campaign.
Chad Johnson or Anquan Boldin?
This is indeed a tough one. Boldin has the best matchup possible agains the Bengals, but Chad is the better and more consistent WR. I am going to go with Chad, only because Anquan worries me after only getting 25 yards of Warner's 300 yards last week. Chad will at least get you close to 10 and could be in for a huge week after a string of unconvincing performances. Boldin has only put up one great week this year, too.
Hope the matchups work out for you!
Thanks as always for your questions and best of luck on Sunday and Monday!
- Shimmeroo T.
