1 win down...5 to go.
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Contents |
[edit] Introduction
Neil says: Wow, has it been a long layoff for the Stanley Cup Playoffs or what? Anaheim clinched their series a full six days ago, and it's been an even longer rest for Ottawa, who beat out the Sabres on May 19. And if it's felt like a prolonged period of inactivity for the two Cup Finalists, it must seem like it's been ages since we last rapped at ya with our predictions... So, here's a little refresher in case you forgot since the last time we did this: Alex Holowczak and I are having a little challenge to decide who really knows America's least-favorite fourth sport best. Here's how it works: Alex is making his picks based on his intuition; mine are based on a statistical method called the Pythagorean Formula. For every correct series winner picked, we get one point, and if we pick the right number of games, it's worth another bonus point. Believe us, it's been a long and excruciating road to the Cup Finals, but the end is in sight. We may be tied -- again -- but just like the real Stanley Cup Finals, this round of the playoffs will definitely crown a champion. We hope.
Before the picks, though, I'll unveil my current NHL Power Rankings, updated to include data through the Conference Finals. Like last time, using the Pythagorean Formula I derived a "true winning percentage" for every team in the NHL in 2006-07. I then adjusted for each team's strength of schedule, and -- voilà! -- Power rankings! Here are the current numbers:
Armed with these "true winning percentages," I can use them to construct the probability of any team beating any other team, using something called the log5 formula. Using that formula and some combinatorics, I can also derive the probability that either team in a series matchup will win 4 games first, as well as the most likely number of games in which that outcome will occur. Math is awesome, isn't it?
So, here we go with our predictions and probabilities for the Stanley Cup Finals...
[edit] Stanley Cup Final
Alex says:
The final of this challenge v Davis21wylie is still a draw as we enter the Stanley Cup. Here's my prediction...
[edit] Ottawa Senators v Anaheim Ducks
Alex says:
This is a tough series to call. The top line of the Ottawa offense has been excellent, lead by Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley. They have excellent goaltending in Ray Emery and their defense has been solid enough this season.
The Ducks have the best defense of the two. Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer have been inspired, and led by Teemu Selanne amongst others in attack, the Ducks have been good. Jean-Sebastien Giguere has been perfect in the playoffs, he was their best player against the Wings.
This is tough to call, but defense usually outguns offense. And I'd love to see Selanne win it, and I wouldn't mind the Wings losing to the Ducks if they went on to become champions.
Decision: Ducks in 7.
Neil says:
Alex thinks Anaheim will cop Lord Stanley's Mug because they were the ones who had the gall to knock off his precious Red Wings in the Conference Finals. Here's why he's wrong:
- Anaheim's defensive advantage isn't as big as you think. Yes, we've all heard about Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, the Ducks' Twin Towers on D. Trouble is, while they've provided some timely offense, they were not the dominating pair we expected to see against Detroit. They took bad penalties, they were not flawless positionally, and their underwhelming defensive play helped Detroit score 2.83 GPG in the Conference Finals -- not that far removed from the 3.03 Detroit scored during the regular season, and a far cry from the 2.17 that San Jose's defense held the Wings to. And while JS Giguere has been lights-out during these playoffs, Ray Emery was actually every bit as good as Jiggy during the regular season, so there's no reason to think Anaheim's (very slight) edge in goal will be of any significance in this series. Furthermore, Ottawa can see the Ducks' Selke finalist Samuel Pahlsson (whose checking prowess has been overrated this season) and raise them Daniel Alfredsson, a tremendous two-way talent and perhaps the most underrated player in the entire NHL. Combine all of this with the fact that Ottawa's deep defensive corps has finally rounded into shape during the playoffs (Wade Redden, Joe Corvo, Tom Preissing, Andrej Meszaros, Chris Phillips, and Anton Volchenkov are a combined +25 in the playoffs, with nobody in the minus), and you're looking at a defensive stalemate... if not an advantage to Ottawa on D.
- Ottawa's offense > Anaheim's. Okay, so the Sens' main source of firepower has always been their top line of Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley, a group that will probably be slowed by the tight checking of Pahlsson-Rob Niedermayer-Travis Moen throughout the Finals. But Ottawa can also sneak in a fair amount of offense from their other lines -- they spread out their ice time far more evenly than Anaheim, they can and will roll four forward lines, and no fewer than 11 Senator forwards have recorded a goal in the playoffs so far (compared to 8 for the Ducks). Meanwhile, beyond Anaheim's top two forward lines, they will be lucky to get much production on offense. Oh, and Ottawa's defense is known for chipping in more than their share of goals, too, which only adds to the Sens' advantage in the scoring department. So you gotta give the Senators the edge on the offensive front.
- All hail mighty Pythagoras! One of the best innovations that Bill James brought to the game of baseball was the realization that margin of victory/defeat actually tells more about a team's true ability than its W-L record does. And it turns out that James' genius can be applied to hockey analysis as well, using goals for/goals against instead of runs scored/allowed. If you think about it, it makes perfect sense: if a team is continually blowing out their opponents, and their only losses come in close decisions, logically they must be a better team than one that has the same record, but is only winning close games and is being blown out in their losses (assuming equal schedules, of course). Simply put, goal differential matters. And on the goal differential front, Ottawa has got Anaheim beat by a significant margin... Combining regular-season and playoff games (and discarding those ridiculous shootout goals for/against), Ottawa has outscored their opponents by an average of 0.90 goals per game. Anaheim, on the other hand, has outscored their opponents by a mere 0.65 goals per game. That .25 GPG may not seem like much, but over the course of a full season it could mean as much as 4-5 extra wins! For more nails in the Ducks' coffin, consider that they were actually outscored 17-16 in the Detroit series, while Ottawa outscored Buffalo 15-10 in their Conference Final. Anaheim may have had the better record during the season, but Ottawa has them beat in goal differential, a category that really matters.
Don't get me wrong, Anaheim is a very good hockey team, and they deserve all the credit in the world for making it this far in the playoffs. But Ottawa is a great team, and they are simply better than the Ducks at virtually every turn. They're deeper, they've got more firepower, and they've got long-dead Greek philosophers on their side as well. Face it, all signs point to the Sens hoisting their first Cup in about two weeks.
Decision: Ottawa in 6.
Well, we're finally done with our picks. As has been the case throughout the "Second Season," we hope you enjoyed reading them, and be sure to stay tuned for final updates on our challenge. Enjoy the last series of the season, everybody!
