The Neverending Week 16 (and Final) Start/Sit Mailbag
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Well, Super Bowl week is here for most leagues and with it the sweet feeling of potential championships and the bitterness of an end to the best fantasy sport in the world. Prior to the 'bag, I want to extend my congratulations to those of you playing in your respective Super Bowl's as well as a thanks for reading and contributing to this column throughout the year. It's been a blast, and I only hope you join us for baseball season or next year for football. As with previous mailbags, if you can't stand the length, just look for the bold answers. With that, the final mailbag...
We begin with Corey, who has contributed throughout the season with questions, and assumed his rightful place at the top of the last mailbag:
Dear Shimmering T, We regret to inform you that I had a HORRIBLE week this week. There was really only one thing that brough me down; Tony Romo's thumb. Everyone was up to par except for him (negative points). Had he scored his usual 25 points or so I would've won easily. I only went 1 for 3 this week. So I still have a tiny thing to live for, for the rest of the football season. I should wrap that league up no problem (So i hope). Anyway I might as well ask for your guidance, just to keep the weekly tradition: R. Wayne vs G. Jennings vs A. Johnson vs. J. Galloway (I need 2) AND J. Lewis vs F. Gore vs. All Day vs B. Westbrook (I need 2) Thanks again, Corey
Hey Corey,
I'm sorry to hear that Tony Romo doomed your fantasy season, much like so many other fantasy footballers. That's the worst; when some guy has propelled your team to victory throughout the year with great performances each week, and then he lays an egg. You can't really be mad, but at the same time, they just choked hardcore. Anyways, at least you are playing for one title, which isn't half bad.
I had a pretty decent week, winning in the 2 of my 3 playoff games. Most importantly, I won in the fleaflicker original keeper league. I need 8 points from All Day and Ryan Longwell going into Monday Night and, needless to say, I got it. I'm excited about that and have the Super Bowl this weekend. My other league is less important and for some reason the commish—unbeknownst to me—made it a 17-week league. Great way to make the Super Bowl irrelevant. But I digress to your picks...
First and foremost, I think we can eliminate Joey Galloway from contention for his 7 yards last week. That was horrible and disgusting. So that leaves us with three. Wayne has a solid matchup with the 17th-ranked pass defense and is always one of the most consistent receivers in terms of production. Last time he put up 84 yards against the Texans and, while that is nothing to write home about, make one of his catches a TD and it is a very solid day. My only concern is whether or not he will play the whole game.
Andre Johnson is officially the man. Aside from one poor performance when he had 37 yards, he has put up 10+ performances in every week. He has the toughest matchup possible, going up against the Indy D. Rest assured, however, that he will be playing from behind and, thus, get a ton of chances in the passing game. I think he needs to be in your lineup.
Greg Jennings is the other most reliable fantasy receiver in the league, putting up at least 10 fantasy points in 11 of 13 games and also posing the long-range threat and the extra fantasy points it brings in some leagues. My only concern for him this week is that high winds are in the forecast in Chicago and you never know how that will affect the game. That said, if high winds are your biggest concern, that's pretty good. It certainly isn't the Bears defense, which is ranked 26th in the league.
After looking at all these guys, I think you go with Johnson and Jennings, the two most consistent and dangerous receivers this year.
Your RB situation is a very tough one that boils down to All Day, Westbrook, and Lewis. Westbrook has the toughest matchup, going up against the 8th-ranked Saints rushing defense. He has been consistently great though—despite ruining a few season last week—and should be a threat out of the backfield against the Saints. Peterson has the second toughest matchup against the 9th-ranked rush defense, but a run defense that gave up 139 yards last week to the Giants. All Day is always a threat, although an inconsistent one, but should have a lot of motivation this weekend with an opportunity to wrap up a playoff spot against Washington. Jamal Lewis has a good matchup against the Bengals, ranked 24th, although prior to last week Cincinnati has been pretty good at shutting down opponents in the last few weeks. Still, he has been the most consistently great RB down the stretch in the league.
So, if I had to make a decision in this situation, I would probably go with Westbrook and Lewis. I hate to leave All Day out because of his potential, but he hasn't ran the ball well the past two weeks, despite getting two TDs last week. I don't really think you can go wrong though, since All Day should still have a nice day.
Well, it's been a great season and I want to thank you for writing in each week and being a contributor throughout the season. I hope we've been able to help you at least a little bit. I'll be rooting for your guys this weekend and I hope you can bring home a Super Bowl ring. Hope to hear from you during baseball or next football season.
Take it easy Corey,
Shimmering T.
Here's one from Brian who hopped on at the end of the year and has seen results:
Dear Flea Fanatics, Thank you for all of your help last week. I really appreciate it. I have 2 teams playing in the Super Bowl this week!!! I have another tough one for you.
I am having a lot of trouble deciding who to start at this week.
Who would you start this week:
Team 1 WR (Pick 3) Chad Johnson vs CLE Larry Fitzgerald vs ATL Hines Ward vs STL Plaxico Burress vs BUF Roddy White vs ARI Dwayne Bowe vs DET Team 2 RB (Pick 2) Edgerrin James vs ATL Frank Gore vs TB Clinton Portis vs MIN Kevin Jones vs KC WR (Pick 3) Torry Holt vs PIT Reggie Wayne vs HOU Larry Fitzgerald vs ATL Derrick Mason vs SEA Calvin Johnson vs KC
Thank you for all of your help. I know this is a lot to pick, but I really appreciate it.
Sincerely, Brian Hey Brian,
I am glad to hear about your success! I will take full responsibility for it (just kidding). I'm glad to hear we have been a help, as we certainly appreciate your patronage to the blog.
I'll be a little bit brief with my answers to your questions, since they are many, but trust me when I say I have done the research.
For your Team 1 pick 3 WR situation I would go with Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Hines Ward. The real debate came down between Ward and Burress, but the forecast has snow in the works for Buffalo and we saw this past weekend what that can do. Unfortunately, you don't have the luxury of waiting until Sunday to see if snow will indeed be the weather conditions since Ward goes on Thursday. Ward has had three solid games in his past four and should give you at least 8-10 FP. Johnson has a great matchup against the Browns (you'll remember what happened in week 2), although the Browns defense has gotten a bit better and the Bengals offense worse. Fitzgerald has been good for at least a TD and has been one of the most consistent receivers all year. If he plays, he should be in your lineup.
For your 2 RB picks, I would go with Edgerrin James and Kevin Jones. I have not been a fan of the Edge all season, but I think this is a "breakout" game (if you can do that in week 16) for him. The Cardinals should get up early and run out the clock with the Edge. Jones goes up against the Chiefs porous run defense that is ranked 26th. If the Lions have any common sense on their coaching staff they will be running the ball all game to limit their biggest weaknesses—offensive line vs. the pass and Jon Kitna's decision making. Should be a big game for him.
For your Team 2 pick 3 WR query, I would go with Wayne, Fitzgerald, and Holt. Wayne is an every game starter, as is Fitzgerald when healthy. While that is a question mark, he has still performed well in the past two weeks. Holt is going up against a Steelers defense that has been torn apart the past few weeks and Torry is also one of the most consistent WRs in the game today. Even last week when he was limited in his catches, he still hauled in a TD. He should have a solid game against the Steelers.
Well, that's it for your picks and the season. I'm glad you joined in the fun, albeit late in the season. Hopefully we'll see you for the baseball season and next year for football.
Best of luck this weekend and hope you bring home two SuperBowl rings!
Shimmering T.
And let's leave the season in the same way it began, with a quick-fire mailbag question from Justin of "Thursdays with Justin" fame:
Long time no talk to! S Jax, TO, R Wayne, R Moss Pick 1 Hey Justin,
It has been a long time. I hope the season has been fun for you and that we have contributed to it a little bit at Flea Fanatics. Thanks for your patronage as you were there from the beginning! Now on to your question...
First a question for you: How did you get all of those guys on your team!? Quite a draft.
Steven Jackson has been playing very well down the stretch for the Rams. In fact, he has been their only form of offense. Since returning he has a minimum of 22 touches and a max of 28. Pretty consistent across the board, which is great. He is facing the 3rd-ranked rush defense, but they struggled mightily last week against the jaguars, giving up 222 yards on the ground. While Jackson has played well recently, the defenses have not been that tough minus his game against the Saints. All of that said, he is a great play every week and the touches of a top-flight fantasy running back make him a safe bet to score well if not great.
TO should not be one of the people you play this week. He has struggled the past few weeks and Romo is injured, which creates too many questions for him to be in your lineup with the studs you have.
Reggie Wayne is another great play this week going up against the Texans defense that is ranked 17th against the pass. Wayne had 4 receptions in their first matchup for 84 yards, but has been playing better since then. My only concern for Wayne is that I'm not so certain the Colts will play their starters the full 60 minutes, which could limit Wayne's fantasy opportunities.
Moss has "struggled" in three of the past four weeks but is always a good play and probably the top WR play regardless of matchups. He takes on a Miami team that won their first game last week and was torn up by Brady and Co. in their first meeting (I think they put up 42 in the first half). The game this time is in New England though, so you never know how the weather will affect the outcome. I do expect them to go to the air more, though, since Brady needs 4 TDs to tie Peyton for the most in a season.
For your pick one situation, I think the matchup boils down to Moss and Jackson. Despite his poor matchup, I would go with Jackson in this situation. Jackson is guaranteed the touches that you want and will give you points regardless of the game situation since he runs as well as catches passes out of the backfield. In the playoffs you need consistent performers who you can rely on for points, and that is Jackson in a nutshell.
Best of luck this week, especially if it is your Super Bowl. Thanks again and hope to see you next season, if not next week.
Take it easy everyone,
Shimmering T. at Flea Fanatics
Flea.Fanatics@gmail.com
