The Early Mock - Day 1 Edition (3/2/07)
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by user Drpatriot
So much change in just a month's time.
The last time I did this mock in its full three-round glory, it was after the Super Bowl. The Colts were flying high, Pac-Man Jones still had about five arrests to go, and Brady Quinn was still a legitimate #1 prospect.
(Yes, I know I put him #1 last week. I was very tired.)
Anyway, here is the newest Day 1 Mock Draft from ArmchairGM and Drpatriot. Hope you enjoy it.
1 Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU: Quinn’s stock is falling once again, and despite reports of Russell’s heavyset frame at the Combine, he should remain the #1 pick.
2 Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech: A 4.35 40 that he wasn’t even PLANNING to run? I don’t care how many wide receivers the Lions have picked.
3 Cleveland: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin: Thomas also had a fantastic combine, and the Browns can’t pass him up at this point.
4 Tampa Bay: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson: Adams retakes the top DE spot with a good combine and a very respectable 4.64 40, the top number among defensive linemen.
5 Arizona: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma: Ken Whisenhunt has said that the Cardinals will run a more conservative offense than his Steelers did last year. This means that they could use more runningbacks, and Peterson is too good to pass up at #5.
6 Washington: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas: The Redskins are releasing two defensive ends, and look for them to make a splash in that direction in the draft.
7 Minnesota: Laron Landry, S, LSU: Landry solidified his Top 10 bid with a stunning 4.35 40. Minnesota could use depth and talent at the safety position.
8 Houston: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan: The Texans hope that adding Branch, who was a very respectable 3rd in the bench press with 33 reps, will continue to build strength in their defensive line.
9 Miami: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame: Miami is looking very closely at Quinn, who they plan to bring in for a second interview, and Quinn could be a future star for them at QB.
10 Atlanta: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC: The Falcons have paid high compliment to Jarrett, who remains a need at a position where they have already spent 2 first-round picks.
11 San Francisco: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville: Though the 49ers have signed Bryant Young for another year, it is time to start bringing in new talent on the defensive line.
12 Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch, RB, California: If/when the Bills trade Willis McGahee, Lynch could be a priority pick.
13 St. Louis: Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio State: The Rams look to upgrade at a position where they will not have depth for much longer. Ginn can also contribute immediately on kick returns.
14 Carolina: Reggie Nelson, FS, Florida: The Panthers add Nelson, whose hard-hitting style will suit the Panthers secondary well.
15 Pittsburgh: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State: The local prospect should add strength and youth to the Steelers defensive line.
16 Green Bay: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami: Say what? Olsen vaulted himself into the mid-first round with a 4.51 40 time, more than .2 seconds ahead of the #2 runner and over .3 seconds ahead of his biggest competitor, Zach Miller.
17 Jacksonville: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State: Timmons will fill a crucial hole in the Jaguars defense at outside linebacker.
18 Cincinnati: DeMarcus Tyler, DT, N.C. State: With 42 bench reps, by far the most out of any player at the Combine, Tyler vaults his stock back up.
19 Tennessee: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan: Even if Pac-Man fixes up his act, the Titans still could use help in the secondary.
20 New York Giants: Anthony Spencer, OLB, Purdue: The difference between Spencer and Jarvis Moss? A full 14 bench reps (coincidentally, almost as many as Moss did in all). Spencer gets the nod here.
21 Denver: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia: After making a trade for Dré Bly, the Broncos address their next biggest need: defensive end.
22 Dallas: Brandon Meriweather, FS, Miami: Meriweather’s interview impressed me at the combine, and he is a much better player than the next ranked safety, Michael Griffin.
23 Kansas City: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee: Meachem’s size (6’2”) and speed (4.39) are both huge assets for the Chiefs, who need a WR to replace Eddie Kennison in the near future.
24 New England (from Seattle): Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh: I can’t possibly see the Patriots passing up Revis here; Willis is too small to be a Patriots linebacker.
25 New York Jets: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska: The Jets gain a solid presence on the outside with Carriker, whose strength and size will suit him well as a 3-4 defensive end.
26 Philadelphia: Michael Griffin, SS, Texas: Griffin’s speed should suit him well with the Eagles, who would use him more in coverage than in run support.
27 New Orleans: Patrick Willis, ILB, Ole Miss: The Saints get great value at a need position when they select Willis early in the first round.
28 New England: Justin Blalock, OL, Texas: The Patriots pull another draft shocker when they add Blalock, who could probably play anywhere on their offensive line, to their line corps, as they definitely had some turn-table line play during the playoffs against the Colts.
29 Baltimore: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas: Houston ran a 4.32, and his performance during the season certainly justifies his location in the first round.
30 San Diego: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State: Gonzalez’s elite performance in many drills should give him an edge into the first round with the Chargers.
31 Chicago: Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas: Ugoh’s strength (32 bench reps), speed (5.06), and performance in the regular season with Darren McFadden warrant him a first-round bid with the Bears.
32 Indianapolis: Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State: After cutting Montae Reagor, a defensive tackle looks like the greatest need in the first round.
33 Oakland: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan: With a solid combine and an otherwise rising stock, the Raiders look to add offensive strength with a tough offensive tackle.
34 Detroit: Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State: The Lansing prospect will be able to back up Jon Kitna for a year until he is ready to play.
35 Tampa Bay: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina: Rice slipped some because of a mediocre combine performance. However, the Buccaneers are still very happy to have him.
36 Cleveland: Paul Pozluszny, ILB, Penn State: D’Qwell Jackson came in the second round last year for the Browns. Now they improve the other spot with the proven Pozluszny.
37 New York Jets (from Washington): Michael Bush, RB, Louisville: The Jets look for their next every-down back in Bush, who definitely has the size for it.
38 Arizona: Ryan Kalil, C, USC: The Cardinals need help on the offensive line, and Kalil looks to be the best center available in the draft.
39 Houston: Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn: Grubbs’ size and toughness will help improve the middle of the Texans’ offensive line.
40 Miami: H.B. Blades, ILB, Pittsburgh: When Zach Thomas steps down, Blades will be ready to take over the reins.
41 Minnesota: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas: The Vikings continue to boost their secondary after they get rid of Fred Smoot.
42 San Francisco: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU: Coincidentally, I share a birthday with Dwayne Bowe. How that is important, I do not know
43 Buffalo: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State: Though his performance was not the best last year, his physical skills warrant a second-round selection.
44 Atlanta: Eric Weddle, DB, Utah: Weddle’s speed and versatility make him an intriguing prospect at safety in the second round for the Falcons.
45 Carolina: Rufus Alexander, OLB, Oklahoma: Though the Panthers’ primary need is at ILB, Alexander is still a great pick on the outside.
46 Pittsburgh: Buster Davis, MLB, Florida State: Buster had a good combine and the Steelers are looking to add linebackers after dropping Joey Porter.
47 Green Bay: Kenny Irons, RB, LSU: The Packers look to the speedy RB out of LSU after they miss out on Lynch in the first round.
48 Jacksonville: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas: Crowder raises his stock with 32 bench reps and a 4.69 40 time.
49 Cincinnati: Daymeion Hughes, CB, California: Hughes ran a 4.61 40. That is just terrible. However, his hands and coverage skills keep him a viable candidate in the second round.
50 Tennessee: Steve Smith, WR, USC: The Titans continue to look for other options at WR and Steve Smith is the best option this early.
51 New York Giants: Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland: Wilson timed well and proved his strength with a full 20 reps at bench, which is relatively high for a corner.
52 St. Louis: LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan: He didn’t work out at the combine, but Woodley proved himself on the playing field with the Wolverines and he should do the same with the Rams.
53 Dallas: Manuel Ramirez, OG, Texas Tech: Ramirez vaulted himself into Day 1 with an impressive 40 bench reps, and the Cowboys need more offensive linemen.
54 Kansas City: Josh Beekman, OG, Boston College: Beekman should fit well on the Chiefs' line, with many players recently retiring and leaving the team.
55 Seattle: Aaron Rouse, S, Virginia Tech: The Seahawks look for help at either safety position and hope to replace the departing Hamlin through the draft.
56 Denver: Jason Hill, WR, Washington State: Hill ran one of the faster 40 times in the draft, and his stock is skyrocketing. The Broncos look to add another receiver for whethe post-Rod Smith era.
57 Philadelphia: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami: Beason makes his first appearance on this mock with the Eagles, who like his speed on the outside.
58 New Orleans: Eric Wright, CB, UNLV: Wright joins the Saints at cornerback, where they are definitely lacking depth and could possibly use another starter.
59 New York Jets: Jarvis Moss, OLB, Florida: Jarvis Moss benched 16 reps at 225. Chris Houston benched 27 reps at 225. Aaaaaaaaaaand the stock falls.
60 New England: Stewart Bradley, OLB, Nebraska: Bradley’s size (6’4”, 254), speed (4.69), and strength (28 bench reps) are all positives for the Patriots.
61 Baltimore: Tony Hunt, RB, Penn State: The Ravens hope that Huntwill be their next pounder at runningback.
62 San Diego: Fred Bennett, CB, South Carolina: The Chargers add more to their secondary with the speedy cornerback out of South Carolina.
63 Chicago: Tim Shaw, OLB, Penn State: Shaw had an impressive combine and his speed should be an asset for the Cover 2 defense that the Bears play.
64 Tampa Bay (from Indianapolis): Brandon Siler, MLB, Florida: The Buccaneers look to replace Shelton Quarles, who will likely retire due to neck problems, with Siler.
65 Oakland: Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina: With Randy Moss and Jerry Porter possibly both leaving, the Raiders look to add more prospects at wide receiver.
66 Detroit: Allen Barbre, OG, Missouri Southern: With George Foster coming in at right tackle, the team adds an offensive lineman at a different position.
67 Cleveland: Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State: The Browns add this local prospect in the hopes of adding competition for Charlie Frye.
68 Tampa Bay: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee: The Buccaneers add this potential replacement for Booger to their roster.
69 Arizona: David Harris, MLB, Michigan: The Cardinals add Harris in the middle, the position at which he was a tackling machine at Michigan.
70 Denver (from Washington): John Wendling, S, Wyoming: The Broncos look to add Wendling to their defensive backfield, where could play any of the four positions.
71 Miami: David Irons, CB, Auburn: Irons gets his wish of not playing on the same team as his brother and will instead go to the Dolphins, who are in desperate need of a corner.
72 Minnesota: Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford: The Vikings add insurance for Tarvaris Jackson early in the third round, just in case things don’t work out on that front.
73 Houston: Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State: The Texans like Pittman's play and think that he could be a great fit for their zone blocking offense.
74 Buffalo: Marshal Yanda, OL, Iowa: The Bills add the versatile Yanda to their offensive line in the hopes that he will be able to play wherever they need him most.
75 Atlanta: Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia: Moses benched a glorious 1 rep more than Jarvis Moss. Unfortunately, Moss ran .12 seconds faster, so Moses falls down to the Falcons, who are looking for a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney on the outside.
76 San Francisco: Arron Sears, OT, Tennessee: The dropoff after Joe Staley is quite significant, and the 49ers add the next best player available at tackle, even though he only benched 22 reps at the combine.
77 Pittsburgh: Doug Datish, C, Ohio State: Datish is the best available option at center, and the Steelers could certainly use another one.
78 Green Bay: Tanard Jackson, DB, Syracuse: The Packers like Jackson’s versatility and look to employ them at whatever spot they need him most in the defensive backfield.
79 Jacksonville: Josh Gattis, FS, Wake Forest: The Jaguars need help at the safety position, and Gattis is the best available prospect.
Cincinnati: The Bengals forfeited their 3rd round pick by selecting Ahmad Brooks in the Supplemental Draft
80 Tennessee: Ray McDonald, DE, Florida: McDonald should give aid to the Titans quickly improving defensive line.
81 New York Giants: Chris Henry, RB, Arizona: The Giants refuse to address their runningback concerns until the third round, but Henry and Brandon Jacobs are a great contrast and should work well together.
82 St. Louis: Brandon Mebane, DT, California: The Rams add Mebane to their defensive line in the hopes that he can add some sort of run support.
83 Carolina: Jared Zabransky, QB/S, Boise State: Zabransky could be in the running for Jake Delhomme’s job if/when he retires, but he is also fast enough to play safety with a 4.53 40 time.
84 Kansas City: Mason Crosby, K, Colorado: There is no news of the Chiefs signing Lawrence Tynes to an RFA tender, so they address the issue through the draft in the 3rd round.
85 Seattle: Samson Satele, OG, Hawaii: Satele is a quick lineman with the skills to eventually replace Steve Hutchinson on the offensive line.
86 Denver: Andy Alleman, OG, Akron, Alleman was one of the faster prospects on the line, and Denver likes that.
87 Dallas: C.J. Gattis, CB, Clemson: Gattis had a good combine and brought himself into Day 1 with the Cowboys at cornerback.
88 New Orleans: Craig Davis, WR, LSU: The Saints look to add depth after releasing Joe Horn.
89 New York Jets: Tarrell Brown, CB, Texas: Brown should add better depth to the thin Jets secondary.
90 Philadelphia: Jordan Palmer, QB, UTEP: The Eagles look to get some Palmer magic with Carson’s little brother as a backup/developmental QB.
91 New England: David Ball, WR, New Hampshire: Ball is a hard worker who looks to be exactly the Patriots type.
92 Baltimore: Brandon Frye, OT, Virginia Tech: Frye benched 34 reps at the Combine, which the Ravens definitely feel warrants consideration.
93 San Diego: Sabby Piscatelli, S, Oregon State: The Chargers look to add depth and a possible starter at safety to replace the departing Terrence Kiel.
94 Chicago: Zach Miller, TE, Arizona: Though he had a terrible combine, the Bears decide that they like him anyway and take a chance with this third-round pick.
95 Indianapolis: Jacoby Jones, WR, Lane: The Colts round out Day 1 with a chancy selection at WR, the small-school prospect whose name kept coming up at the Combine, to replace the recently cut Brandon Stokley.
Biggest Risers:
Joe Staley (+32): Staley's rise looks to be due to continued solid performance and other players simply performing worse than he is. Players like Arron Sears and Doug Free slipped at the combine, while he turned out a reasonably good performance with 27 bench reps and good size (6'2", 310).
Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB, Purdue (+29): Spencer's rise appears to be due to consistently good results in workouts and at the Senior Bowl. Spencer ran an impressive 4.7 at the Combine and also benched 30 reps. Big 10 offensive tackles have been heard raving about how hard it is to block Spencer. Spencer has risen from a mid-2nd round prospect to the Top 20 of the draft, and, barring unforeseen troubles, he should remain there for the actual draft.
Other Big Risers: Robert Meachem (+18), Brandon Meriweather (+16), Michael Griffin (+16), Kenny Irons (+16), Drew Stanton (+14), Chris Houston (+14), Anthony Gonzalez (+14)
Biggest Fallers:
Zach Miller, TE, Arizona (-63): Miller was ranked as the #1 tight end on the board until two things happened: Greg Olsen ran a 4.51 and Miller ran a 4.83. This was not was he was hoping for, and he fell way, way down.
Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia (-49): Quentin Moses' fall is, in part, inexplicable. At the end of the collegiate season, he was considered the #2 defensive end prospect on most boards. However, he has started to slide, with doubts that he was suited for the NFL and belief that his own teammate, Charles Johnson, was better than him. Though Moses had a chance to prove his haters wrong at the Combine, he did just the opposite, benching a measly 17 reps, running a 4.82 (about average), and performing average or worse in the other drills he participated in.
Other Big Fallers: Jarvis Moss (-25), Marcus McCauley (-23), Troy Smith (-22), Daymeion Hughes (-22), Rufus Alexander (-16), LaMarr Woodley (-16)
1. I think that a smarter personnel move for the Bucs would be to go defense on Day 1 because they will be out of luck for a long time without one, though Quinn is definitely an option. They can acquire a quarterback later if they had to. In addition, Jake Plummer had not refused a trade at the time of the mock and he was set to go to the Bucs, not retire.
2. Leon Hall is an excellent prospect, but I gave them Okoye because of rumors of Nate Clements to the 49ers being a done deal.
3. I don't think that the Saints will make a reach at a need position with such great value on the board in Willis, who plays at another need position.