Shimmering T: Week 9 Start/Sit
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I’ve been bombarded this week with a total of 0 e-mails asking for my take on the big matchup this weekend between the Pats and the Colts. So, I felt I needed to oblige the legions of fans I think I have and write up my prediction. Here is how I see the game developing based on endless hours of not watching tape: I think the Colts are too smart to think that they can win a shootout against the Patriots. As a result, they will try to win the time of possession game first, running the ball with Joseph Addai and completing short passes to Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. The Patriots have seemed a bit vulnerable to the run of late, and I think this is the only way the Colts can stay in it. As a result, I think the game is low-scoring at halftime, at least for this matchup, with the Patriots up 17-14. In the second half, the Patriots will go up by 11 with another score, which will lead the Colts to abandon their strategy and try to win it through the air. The bad part about this is that the Colts offense is stoppable, at least on a few drives, and the Patriots are not. A few quick strikes to Moss and Stallworth and the game becomes a shootout, with the Patriots winning comfortably 44-28.
On to this week’s picks…
Here are the details that decide wins or losses: 17 points for a QB, 10 points for a RB or WR, 6 points for a TE, 8 for kickers, and 8 for defenses, all based on the following standard fantasy scoring (QB 20y = 1, TD = 4, INT = -2, FUM = -1; QB, RB, WR, TE 10y = 1, TD = 6, FUM = -1; K 0-39 = 3, 40-49 = 4, 50+ = 5, XP = 1; DEF Sack = 1, INT = 2, FUMRec = 2, TD = 6, Safety = 4).
Last Week: 14-12 Season Record: 128-101-3 or 56% QB: 19-19-1 RB: 29-15-1 WR: 23-18-1 TE: 14-21 K: 23-11 DEF: 21-15
Starts (Lee Evanses):
The following matchups are of players who are questionable starts for many fantasy owners, who should start this week based on their matchup (named each week for the player who most took advantage of his matchup the previous week):
QB:
J.P. Losman, CIN @ BUF
What a deal for Losman; he comes in for injured Trent Edwards and gets to go up against two of the softest defenses in the league. I like JP because of his matchup, but also because of the connection that he and Lee Evans share that tends to go for 50+ and a score.
Jay Cutler, DEN @ DET
Last week was brutal for Griese owners as the Lions shut him down. Blame it more on Griese than the defense, as Cutler chalks up a solid game against the Wizard-of-Oz Lions with no courage on D.
Philip Rivers, SD @ MIN
This is probably the best week of Mr. Rivers’ life, now that he has a capable WR to complement Antonio Gates.Phil destroys the Texans and now moves on to the Vikes. Once again, the Vikings are a terrific matchup for any passing game, since opposing offenses normally abandon the run with 14:56 left in the first. The Chargers obviously won’t with LDT, but it should still be a good day for the improving Rivers.
RB:
Joseph Addai, NE @ IND
I know, I know, he doesn’t belong in a column of debatable starters, but he does this week. I expect the Colts to run the hell out of the ball against the Patriots, to keep the defense tired and the Pats offense off the field. I predict at least 15 for Mr. Addai.
Fred Taylor, JAX @ NO
Mr. Taylor got some well-deserved play in a New York Times article this week, which got me thinking: What if this is the week Fragile Fred takes one to the house from way out, much like he did on his first run from scrimmage in the NFL? I have good feelings about it this week.
Shaun Alexander, SEA @ CLE
Alexander, like DMX, seems to be “slippin’, fallin’, can’t get up,” but like the Roughrider himself, the Cleveland soft run/pass D combination will “help [him] get up so he can tear isht up.” Should be one of the last good games we see from Mr. Alexander.
WR:
Dwayne Bowe, GB @ KC
The Packers are 22nd against the pass this year and the Chiefs really only have one reliable WR.
Chris Chambers, SD @ MIN
I think this is a big game for Chambers. He has a week under his belt as a member of the Chargers and he should be able to find the soft spot in the Vikings’ defensive underbelly. By the way, how does Antonio Gates get so open, every week?
Lee Evans, CIN @ BUF
Last week I called the reemergence of Mr. Evans, another reason you should pay attention to my predictions. This week will be more of the same, with a long TD pass supplementing a solid overall day.
Donté Stallworth, NE @ IND
This is a gut pick, but I think Stallworth becomes the hero in THE MATCHUP this week against the Colts. With Moss and Welker stealing all the headlines and attention from the Colts D, Stallworth will have a couple of long catches. He plays well on turf and is the best after the catch of all three Patriots WRs.
TE:
Chris Cooley, WAS @ NYJ
Cooley, the master of the TD with as little yards as possible puts up a complete game with catches, yards, and a TD.
Jeff King, CAR @ TEN
King was under the radar last week and snagged 10 passes, mainly because David Carr doesn’t belong in the NFL. Well, Carr still doesn’t belong in the NFL and he is still the QB, so look for King to have another good day.
K:
Kris Brown, HOU @ OAK
Brown has been struggling, but nothing can turn a kickers week around like an endorsement from the Shimmering One. If you’ll notice my record, you should be listening to me every week in this section. Brown gets the Raiders defense, which is soft, and his own offense, which is only good enough to get into field goal range, which will lead to a good day. Did I just use “which” three times in a sentence?
Josh Brown, SEA @ CLE
Brown is my kicker pick of the week, going against a soft Browns’ defense and quick-scoring offense. Look for him to register a fine day between the uprights.
Jason Elam, DEN @ DET
If you are a frequent reader of this column (Justin, Justin, where are you?), you will know I don’t like Elam as a kicker. But, one of the great things about being brilliant is that you know when bad kickers will have good weeks. This is one such instance.
DEF:
Texans @ OAK
The Raiders offense is doing a good impersonation of last year’s team. This depresses the Shimmering T. JaMarcus! JaMarcus! Where are you?
Raiders vs. HOU
For some reason, when I hear the name “Sage” I think of fire. Maybe that’s because I am a reformed Pyromaniac. This should be a game with 2 or 3 defensive scores.
Falcons vs. SF
The 49ers are giving up almost 4 sacks/game this year and their offense is pretty terrible. Look for Alex Smith to throw a few picks and get hammered throughout the game.
Sit (Brian Grieses):
The following matchups are of players who would be likely starts, who are in for a rough time because of their matchups (named each week for the player who took advantage of his matchup the least last week):
QB:
Brett Favre, GB @ KC
This was a tough week for QBs, as many of the top performers have solid matchups. So, Favre is the pick this week, playing in hostile Arrowhead stadium against the surprisingly good secondary of the Chiefs.
RB:
Marion Barber, DAL @ PHI
Philly did a great job stuffing The Greatest Running Back in the History of the Game—Adrian Peterson—last week, so stopping Barber shouldn’t be too tough either.
Larry Johnson, GB @ KC
LJ is averaging a mere 3.6 YPC this season, even after going against two of the worst run defense over the last couple games. The Packers are solid and will keep LJ from making much noise.
WR:
Steve Smith, CAR @ TEN
David Carr is his QB.
Santonio Holmes, BAL @ PIT
I’ve liked Big Ben the whole year, but I think this is where his decline begins. The Ravens have been improving on defense recently and it should be a slugfest in Pittsburgh.
Anquan Boldin, ARI @ TB
I was surprised to see Tampa as one of the best pass D’s this season, which I think should make life tough for one of the two Cardinals WRs. I’m going with Boldin this week.
TE:
Jason Witten, DAL @ PHI
I have been pretty good at picking when Witten will struggle, and I think this week will be a relatively low-scoring affair that the Eagles end up taking by a field goal.
K:
Matt Stover, BAL @ PIT
The Ravens offense will struggle mightily to move the ball on the Steelers.
DEF:
Seahawks @ CLE
The Seahawks are a top 5 defense in many fantasy scoring systems, but Cleveland will move the ball and put up a ton of points.
Vikings vs. SD
The best defense in the league over the first few weeks continues it’s downward spiral, as the pass defense cannot get anything going for the second straight year.
Good luck this weekend,
--Shimmering T. at www.fleafanatics.com
