Shimmering T: Week 3 Start/Sit
| 4
|
The following are players who should exceed or fail to meet expectations based on their Week 3 matchup. I am hitting on 65 percent so far this season, so you probably want to pay attention. You’ll (I mean the one person who reads this) also notice a new name for the column (formerly Week #: Matchups) and nickname for the writer of this column, Shimmering T. There is a story behind it, which I’d be happy to share if anyone cares. I am guessing you don’t, but let me know otherwise.
Here are the details that decide wins or losses: 17 points for a QB, 10 points for a RB or WR, 6 points for a TE, 8 for kickers, and 8 for defenses, all based on the following standard fantasy scoring (QB 20y = 1, TD = 4, INT = -2, FUM = -1; QB, RB, WR, TE 10y = 1, TD = 6, FUM = -1; K 0-39 = 3, 40-49 = 4, 50+ = 5, XP = 1; DEF Sack = 1, INT = 2, FUMRec = 2, TD = 6, Safety = 4).
Season Record: 39-21-1 or 65% QB: 6-6 RB: 6-2-1 WR: 8-4 TE: 4-5 K: 6-2 DEF: 9-2
Jamal Lewises:
The following matchups are of players who are questionable starts for many fantasy owners, who should start this week based on their matchup (named each week for the player who most took advantage of his matchup the previous week):
QB:
Jason Campbell, NYG @ WAS
THIS SPOT RESERVED: Every Giants Opponent.
Matt Hasselbeck, CIN @ SEA
Conversation from earlier this week: “Hi, my name is Matt. I play the Bengals this week (giggles with delight).” “Hi, my name is Derek Anderson. I am starting you in my fantasy league.”
Rex Grossman, DAL @ CHI
I am putting my reputation as the columnist who two people read by going with Rex, but I have a hunch. Rex showed the ability to have huge games last season and he is ripe for one here. Dallas has been terrible in pass D and serviceable stopping the run. The result: The Bears running game continues to struggle, while Grossman puts up nice numbers with a couple touchdowns coming on short fields after Cowboy turnovers.
RB:
Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, JAX @ DEN
I think this is a great matchup for Jacksonville and its running game. Hostile away crowd, opponents’ running D allowing 5.1 yards/carry against the Raiders and Bills offensive lines; I’ll be surprised if Garrard attempts 15 passes.
LenDale White, TEN @ NO
I was right last week when I picked Chris Brown to stutter and lose the job to LenDale. There are some injury questions here, so keep an eye on the injury report, but he should be good to go on Monday. I think the Saints put so much energy into stopping the pass that they forget to control the line. Tennessee is averaging the most rushing yards per game, and it is tempting to go with Brown, too.
Thomas Jones, MIA @ NYJ
I loved the Maimi D this year, one of my many terrible preseason picks. (Something to note: I am a terrible drafter, but a good in-season fantasy player.) They will still be solid, but have struggled against the run. Jones finally has a nice day.
WR:
Roydell Williams, TEN @ NO (The Saints Foundation)
Roydell Williams, meet Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning, Jeff Garcia, and Joey Galloway. That’s a lot of fantasy beneficiaries in two week. I am now dubbing the New Orleans D the Saints Foundation, since they are funding fantasy squads everywhere as well as the future contracts of wide receivers that face them. In fact, the Player’s Union should fight for every pass offense to be able to face the Saints, so that players will have an equal opportunity to succeed.
Wes Welker, NE @ BUF
Welker has been solid thus far, and he should rack up another 100 yards and/or a touchdown this week. The Pats are scary good.
Reggie Brown, DET @ PHI
This game has “up-and-coming team versus team that has won their division 5 of the last 6 years and is pissed” written all over it. I see either an Eagles blowout or a shootout. Either way, it benefits the Eagles’ offensive players.
Super Sleepers (not counted in record): If you are like me in one of my leagues and hate the matchups of your wide receivers (Vincent Jackson and Lee Evans), two players to consider starting this week are Glenn Holt of the Bengals and David Patten of the Saints. Holt has a terrific matchup and showed potential last week, while Patten is set to be the number two WR opposite Marques Colston in New Orleans.
TE:
Bo Scaife, TEN @ NO
Bo knows Saints D.
Chris Cooley, NYG @ WAS
I am breaking the scoring mold with this one, since Cooley is THE play of tight ends this week. He is going against the Giants who are the Santa Clause for TEs. I guarantee 10 points.
Greg Olsen or, if injured, Desmond Clark, DAL @ CHI
I was debating between Olsen and Zach Miller here, but IF Olsen plays, I think he can have a huge day against a terrible Dallas pass D. He should be a recipient of one of Rex’s TDs this week. If he can’t go than Clark becomes the play
K:
Shaun Shuisham, NYG @ WAS
Suisham has been solid this year and he is going up against a very generous defense. Watching the Redskins offense last week, they seemed solid, but struggle in the red zone. Maybe it’s their quick but small receivers (Randel El and Santana) whose talents cannot be used as well in tight quarters; either way, it’s gold for Suisham.
Josh Brown, CIN @ SEA
Brown will probably get 10 XP attempts.
John Carney, JAX @ DEN
One thing that struck me (other than pain and disappointment) about Janikowski’s kicks against Denver last week, was that his kicks would have been good from 70 yards. He hit the top of the upright from 52 yards! Carney lacks the leg but has the accuracy, which combined with Mile High, should lead to a few 40 yarders.
DEF:
Oakland vs. CLE
Yes, Cleveland’s offense looked terrific against the Bengals. No, they are not that good offensively. The Steelers crushed them in Week 1 and, although a lesser D, Oakland will create pressure and make Derek Anderson play like he normally does—terribly.
Philadelphia @ DET
Detroit will be playing from behind and be forced to throw a lot. Kitna will make plenty of mistakes, including one that is returned for a touchdown. He will then look up to the heavens and thank God it’s a miracle he is a starting quarterback.
Carolina @ ATL
Atlanta’s offense is EW—an Every Week play.
Cincinnati Defenses:
The following matchups are of players who would be likely starts, who are in for a rough time because of their matchups (named each week for the player who took advantage of his matchup the least last week):
QB:
Tony Romo, DAL @ CHI
Romo is sitting on top of the world right now, at least on top of most QB rankings. Chicago has a top defense and I really think Romo is playing over his head. If he passes this test, I will keep him out of this section for a while.
Alex Smith, SF @ PIT
This is an easy one, but there are probably a few fantasy owners who have Smith as their top QB. If you do, grab someone else from the waiver wire like Jeff Garcia, Rex Grossman, or even Josh McCown (if he is fit to play).
Jon Kitna, DET @ PHI
He might get a decent amount of yardage this week, but it won’t counteract the 3 picks and no TDs.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch, BUF @ NE
I should just rename this section the Marshawn Lynch Zone. I dislike Lynch as a running back for the Bills.
Frank Gore, SF @ PIT
It’s amazing how football works: Gore is a yardage maniac last year but struggles to get TDs. This year he can’t get yardage but has 3 TDs in two week. Four scary things this week: 1) Gore’s 3.6 y/c against Arizona and St. Louis run Ds; 2) Pittsburgh is much better than those two; 3) Gore had a sore leg this week; 4) They will be playing from behind.
Larry Johnson, KC @ MIN
Tough string of run defenses for LJ. Great RBs overcome these matches to get fantasy players 9 or 10 points. LJ will fail to do so again.
Marion Barber, DAL @ CHI
Barber has been terrific thus far, but this is one of those games that will bring the average down to the talent level.
WR:
Braylon Edwards, CLE @ OAK
I have him somewhere in this column every week. I have a crush on Nnamdi Asomugha.
Calvin Williams, DET @ PHI
I couldn’t decide between the Williamses on this one, but Roy has been getting his touchdowns, even when he doesn’t get the yards. This will be the first week Calvin looks like a rookie.
Plaxico Burress, NYG @ WAS
Plex has some injury concerns this week and the solid Redskin safety combination will take away the deep threat.
TE:
Vernon Davis, SF @ PIT
For some reason I feel like Davis will be thrown out of this game. That or he will have a sideline blow up.
Heath Miller, SF @ PIT
Miller has quietly averaged over 6 fantasy points a game through two week. The 49ers have a quick linebacking corps that should hold him under his average.
K:
Nate Kaeding, SD @ GB
This game is pressure-filled for the Chargers, as Norv Turner must show that he does not completely suffocate one of the most potent offenses of the past few years. Lambeau is a tough place to kick and Kaeding will struggle to get more than a field goal and 2 or 3 XPs.
Nick Folk, DAL @ CHI
Folk is one of those Robbie Gould stories thus far, as he ranks second among all kickers. I don’t see a lot of offense for the Cowboys in this one, as the Bears separate the men from the boys in the NFC.
DEF:
Denver vs. JAX
Jacksonville will run and run and run…
Indianapolis @ HOU
Matt Schaub has stayed away from mistakes thus far, and I think the Texans will play very conservatively in this one. The Colts will get a few sacks, but that’s about it.
Thanks for reading,
--Shimmering T.
