Shimmering T: Week 13 Start/Sit
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Well, here we are, on the precipice of the fantasy playoffs, with one week standing between a lot of fantasy owners and a chance at fantasy Super Bowl glory. If you’ll recall, I went balls out last week to mixed results. Hit it on the button with Kolby Smith and missed badly with Lee Evans, the destroyer of fantasy seasons and dreams. As usual, the players listed in the start section of the column are borderline starters who should be in your lineup and those in the sit section are either solid or borderline starters who will not hit the below benchmarks because of their matchups. May Week 13 fulfill your fantasy dreams and bring you to the fantasy playoff promised land. Here goes nothing…
Here are the details that decide wins or losses: 17 points for a QB, 10 points for a RB or WR, 6 points for a TE, 8 for kickers, and 8 for defenses, all based on the following standard fantasy scoring (QB 20y = 1, TD = 4, INT = -2, FUM = -1; QB, RB, WR, TE 10y = 1, TD = 6, FUM = -1; K 0-39 = 3, 40-49 = 4, 50+ = 5, XP = 1; DEF Sack = 1, INT = 2, FUMRec = 2, TD = 6, Safety = 4).
Last Week: 14-16-3 Season Record: 181-157-9 or 54% QB: 27-26-2 RB: 39-29-3 WR: 36-27-3 TE: 19-28 K: 31-20 DEF: 30-25
Start:
QB:
Kurt Warner, CLE @ ARI Warner has been terrific for fantasy owners who stole him off waiver wire weeks ago—as suggested by yours truly—and his success should continue this week against the 30th-ranked passing defense of the Browns.
Jon Kitna, DET @ MIN Kitna should get battered around against the Vikings, but should also put up significant yardage and a couple TDs. In what will be a messy game, look for Kitna to attempt over 40 passes. Remember, it doesn’t have to look pretty to get you fantasy points; it often doesn't.
Jason Campbell WAS vs. BUF I expect the Redskins to play a solid game in memory of fallen teammate Sean Taylor. Campbell has been playing well of late, despite some arrant throws last week, and he and the healing WR corps should be able to pick apart the Bills’ 29th-ranked secondary.
RB:
Jesse Chatman, MIA vs. NYJ Chatman, who according to head coach Cam Cameron is “fine,” will lead the Dolphins to their first victory on Sunday, with a Chester Taylor/Kolby Smith-like performance. The Jets give up 150 Y/G on the ground, which will help keep the ball out of John Beck’s hands. You heard Miami’s victory here first.
Justin Fargas, OAK vs. DEN Fargas was one of the great surprises of Week 12. His fantasy owners should enjoy the ride this weekend going up against the 29th-ranked rush D of the Broncos. Look for Lane Kiffin to ride his new horse for 25-30 carries, which is between 118 and 141 yards based on the Broncos 4.7 YPC allowed.
Thomas Jones, NYJ @ MIA Last week I was prophetic in picking Jones’ fall from grace. In an effort to further demonstrate my skills, I will pick him to excel this week against the 30th-ranked rush D of the Dolphins that can only slow down runners in swamp-like conditions.
Healthy Denver Starting RB (Selvin Young, Andre Hall, or Cecil Sapp), DEN @ OAK It is utterly embarrassing to be a Raiders fan with their rush D in its current form. They are giving up 5.0 YPC (last in the NFL) and 153.6 YPG (also last in the NFL). In fact, just pencil in “Raiders Opposing RB” in this space every week from here on out. (Spot Reserved for Raiders Opposing RB)
WR:
Joey Galloway, TB @ NO Galloway was a dud last week breaking up a surprising string of consistency in which he registered between 12 - 17 FP in three consecutive games. Thankfully, this week he gets a horrendous 27th-ranked Saints pass D that has been good to opposing WRs. Even if Jeff Garcia can't go, which looks possible, Galloway is still a solid WR2 who should be able to pull off one long TD pass.
Calvin Johnson, DET @ MIN Johnson has been the beneficiary of the Lions owners' play calling, as it was reported the Ford family instructed the coaching staff to start throwing more to the #2 pick in the draft. The results have been favorable the past two weeks and Johnson should excel against the worst secondary in the NFL, which will likely key on fellow receiver Roy Williams.
Deion Branch, SEA @ PHI When healthy, Branch has been the primary target of QB Matt Hasselbeck. This week the duo gets the 22nd-rated pass D of the Eagles, which should lead to a second-straight week of high yardage and a TD for Branch.
Hines Ward, PIT vs. CIN The Steelers’ offensive players must be chomping at the bit to play the Bengals and their fantasy-owners-dream defense. Ward is in a good position to put up good numbers whether Santonio Holmes suits up or not. Big Ben will be amped after two consecutive poor outings and nothing stops offensive droughts like the Bengals porous defense.
TE:
Owen Daniels, HOU @ TEN I have been riding Daniels for the last two weeks, with one correct prediction and one wrong (although he still put up 54 yards). I will try to break the tie this week and Daniels should continue his fantasy production after developing a great relationship with QB Matt Schaub.
Heath Miller, PIT vs. CIN Miller should be another beneficiary of the Bengals-defense-driven offensive turnaround of the Steelers this weekend. Miller has been up and down of late, but should be back to his consistent form against a Bengals defense that has held only one team under 200 yards passing this season…and it was 197 yards two weeks ago.
Leonard Pope, ARI vs. CLE Pope has been the recipient of some long passes by Kurt Warner in recent weeks, and while he’s been kept in relative check, the Cardinals TE is a good matchup play this weekend for fantasy owners seeking a fill-in or relying on rotating TEs.
K:
Jason Hanson, DET @ MIN I predicted 20 points for Hanson in these two teams’ matchup earlier in the year and Hanson only delivered 8. Well, this is my favorite kicking matchup of the year because the Lions’ reliance on passing and the Vikings’ ability to only stop the run usually results in many red-zone struggles. I won’t say 20 this time, but let’s go with a more reasonable 12.
Jeff Reed, PIT @ CIN Any chance of Reed succeeding last week was literally washed away, which ended the kicker’s string of games with 8 or more FP at three. Hope that a few of the Steelers’ drives stall, resulting in a few 3-pointers for Reed along with 4+ XP.
Phil Dawson, CLE @ ARI Dawson has been a very reliable kicker for fantasy owners, which should continue this week against a Cardinals defense that usually bends but doesn’t break. Unless they're playing the 49ers.
DEF:
Vikings TM vs. DET The last matchup between the Vikings D and the Lions ended with 4 sacks, 5 turnovers, and a TD for the purple and gold. The results won’t be as good this week, but they will still be solid as is any matchup against the league leader in sack allowed.
Denver TM @ OAK The Broncos always seem to generate great defensive games against the Raiders (I wonder why?). In Week 2 it happened to the tune of 4 sacks, 3 INTs, and 2 forced fumbles. Expect it again.
Redskins TM vs. BUF I expect the Redskins to dedicate a terrific defensive performance to the memory of Sean Taylor. Expect them to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Trent Edwards and the RB-less Bills.
Sit:
QB:
Carson Palmer, CIN vs. PIT Palmer had a great day last weekend, but has his toughest matchup of the year against the best pass D in the NFL in a hostile environment. If you have Kurt Warner or another QB with a good matchup, you may want to start him in place of the Bengals’ signal-caller.
RB:
Earnest Graham, TB @ NO Pundits are hopping on the Grahamwagon (Copyright 2007, Shimmering T) this week, predicting big things for the Tampa runner. While he has proved reliable scoring a TD in three straight games, the Saints run D is very solid having only allowed 3 100-yard rushing games on the season. With Garcia injured, look for the Saints D to stack the line.
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX @ IND I own MoJo in a few leagues and he has really disappointed this season. While he is not a monumental, season-shattering bust like Lee Evans or Marc Bulger, he has taken a step back in year two. The Colts are only ranked 16th on rush D, but they are extremely consistent at keeping opponents to around 100 YPG. As such, MoJo and Freddy will share the 100 and come up TD-less.
Ryan Grant, GB @ DAL Grant played surprisingly well last week against the solid Lions rush D, getting involved in the passing game and increasing his fantasy value in the process. This week he stumbles on a very solid Dallas run defense that is dominating offensive lines, holding 3 of its past 4 opponents under 70 yards rushing. Look for Favre and Co. to go to the air and try to exploit a weak Cowboys secondary, leaving Grant with few rushing opportunities.
WR:
Torry Holt, STL vs. ATL Holt had been playing well a couple weeks ago, but has been limited to short passes in his past two games, catching 12 passes for 109 yards and a TD. The Rams will likely go to the ground to beat the Falcons, since Atlanta is much tougher to pass against than run (26th vs. 8th). Moreover, with Bulger questionable, I have concerns about the QB situation with Gus Frerotte.
Steve Smith, CAR vs. SF Smith is no longer a viable fantasy receiver, having not registered a 100-yard game or TD since Week 6. He failed to perform against the Saints of all teams and just doesn’t have the resources at QB to be successful.
Chad Johnson, CIN vs. PIT I did some research on Johnson’s breakout game last year (190 yards, 3 TDs) and he followed it up with a fall back down to Earth, albeit to the tune of 123 yards and 0 TDs. Look for Johnson to register another sub-10 FP performance going up against the top-ranked pass defense and with Palmer looking to other WRs this week.
TE:
Vernon Davis, SF @ CAR Davis finally provided a glimpse of his abilities last week, registering a TD in the 49ers first positively offensive performance in many weeks. Don’t drink the Davis Kool-aid, however, as he still has Trent Dilfer throwing to him and the San Fran offense didn’t change overnight.
K:
Matt Stover, BAL @ NE Stover has been boom or bust so far this year, and thankfully I’ve been able to predict in which weeks each would come. Well, this week it will be another bust, and you can consider Stover of little value to your fantasy team from here on out because of an inconsistent and impotent offense.
DEF:
Packers @ DAL The Packers are a terrific D to own for the rest of the season, with games against Oakland, St. Louis, and Chicago, three of the most-sacked teams. This week though, the Packers defense faces a team that excels where they don’t—in the passing game. Look for this game to be a true shootout with little value for both defenses.
Lions @ MIN The Lions were shocking the fantasy world a few weeks ago, managing to create turnover after turnover despite giving up serious yardage and points. How long ago that seems, after three straight dreadful fantasy performances. Keep them out of your lineup this week, as Tarvaris Jackson has been limiting his mistakes and the Vikes will try to pound the ball with their two bruising backs.
Colts vs. JAX Jacksonville is second in the league, having only turned the ball over 14 times, including 0 interceptions by David Garrard. Look for this game to be well played, with few mistakes, leaving little value in either defense.
That’s it for Week 13. Good luck on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday and don't forget to enjoy the games!
--Shimmering T. at Flea Fanatics
