Shimmering T: Week 12 Start/Sit
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Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I wanted to start off this column in an appropriate way, by thanking all of our readers. We at Flea Fanatics started blogging out of our love of fantasy football and fantasy sports and despite working, going to school, or doing both. We’ve done our best to bring out columns on a consistent basis that will help out fantasy players, although it isn’t always possible. In the past week we have had more time and have blogged more and our traffic has picked up tremendously. So, I just wanted to thank all of you for reading the blog, providing comments, and especially helping out our mailbaggers and fellow readers by voting in the “Who Would You Start?” feature. We will continue to bring this out each week and we hope you continue to enjoy and read our fantasy commentary, analysis, and news. Happy Thanksgiving!
Well, enough of the sappy stuff; let’s move on to this week’s picks, where I am going balls out by picking more starters and sitters than usual. Last week was a good one, so I’m feeling confident. Here goes nothing…
Here are the details that decide wins or losses: 17 points for a QB, 10 points for a RB or WR, 6 points for a TE, 8 for kickers, and 8 for defenses, all based on the following standard fantasy scoring (QB 20y = 1, TD = 4, INT = -2, FUM = -1; QB, RB, WR, TE 10y = 1, TD = 6, FUM = -1; K 0-39 = 3, 40-49 = 4, 50+ = 5, XP = 1; DEF Sack = 1, INT = 2, FUMRec = 2, TD = 6, Safety = 4).
Last Week: 16-9-1 Season Record: 167-141-6 or 54% QB: 25-25-2 RB: 35-24-2 WR: 32-25-2 TE: 18-26 K: 30-17 DEF: 28-22
START:
QB:
Eli Manning, MIN @ NYG Manning looked good last week against the Lions, who, although bad, are no comparison to the Vikings. It isn’t entirely the fault of the Vikes’ secondary since teams normally abandon the run early, but that doesn’t matter in the fantasy game. Eli will have a big day against the 32nd-ranked pass D.
Matt Schaub, HOU @ CLE Schaub is the clock that makes the Texans offense tick, which he showed with his economical performance last week against the Saints. Believe it or not but the Browns are worse on pass D than the Saints, and the Texans QB should have another field day with a long TD pass to Mr. Johnson.
Vinny Testeverde, NO @ CAR This is my surprise/emergency pick of the week. If you are desperate at QB, Vinny is your man. He hasn’t been all that bad and should be able to at least put up yards against a Saints pass D that has given up 200 or more yards in the air in the last three games and five out of their past six.
RB:
Maurice Jones-Drew, BUF @ JAX I foresee a huge day for MoJo. If you have him in your lineup, keep him there. He is my #1 back of the week. I’ve been waiting for this matchup for week, as I think he is going to explode against the 22nd-ranked Bills rush D.
Kolby Smith, OAK @ KC Smith has the chance to change a lot of fantasy playoff races this weekend off the waiver wire. He will be this week’s version of Chester Taylor without the 3 TDs, but at least 1 and maybe 2 TDs to celebrate with his 100+ yards.
Marion Barber, NYJ @ DAL Barber has had a tough couple weeks and second half of the season thus far. He was one of the top performers out of the gate, but has slipped considerably. The Jets are just the remedy for Barber’s hard-running style and he should hit pay dirt at least once against their 29th-ranked rushing defense.
Willie Parker, MIA @ PIT Fast Willie has been a bit slow to the holes recently, struggling against an iffy Jets defense last week. Look for the whole Steelers team to come out angry, which means the offensive line responsible for the Steelers’ #2 rushing offense ranking will dominate the worst rush D in the NFL.
Ron Dayne, HOU @ CLE Dayne appears set on performing a repeat of last season when he helped many fantasy owners to their respective championships, including the Flea Fanatics’ own Golden Boy. Dayne should continue his string of solid performances this week, against the 28th-ranked rush D of the Browns.
Selvin Young, DEN @ CHI Young has been running well when given the opportunity this season and should have a good game against the Bears. The Bears have given up 100+ yards on the ground in their last six games and seven of their last eight. Monitor Young’s injury status as well as those of Andre Hall and Travis Henry, but if he gets the starting nod make sure he is in your lineup.
WR:
Greg Jennings, GB @ DET Jennings has slowed down a bit, since his tremendous stretch of games a few weeks ago. Look for him to rebound—if you can call it that—by producing an award-winning Thanksgiving performance.
Larry Fitzgerald, SF @ ARI Fitzgerald probably shouldn’t be in this column, since he is a must start from here on out, but I have ridden him here and will continue to do so. I predicted his rise back to glory and should be able to bare the fruits of it.
Andre Johnson, HOU @ CLE Johnson didn’t skip a beat last week and should excel against a defense that got lit up by Kyle Boller in the second half of last week’s game. This game should be the best one for fantasy lovers to watch this weekend.
Carolina #1 WR (Steve Smith or Drew Carter), NO @ CAR Anyone who reads this column knows that I have not been a fan of Mr. Smith since the beginning of the season when he was in my bust column (along with Larry Johnson and Frank Gore). The Saints pass D, however, has provided many mediocre receivers with great games this year and should negate any hard feelings for a week. If Smith can’t go, Carter should be considered a top-15 WR.
Lee Evans, BUF @ JAX Mr. Inconsistent has struggled against tough pass defenses for the most part (NE x 2, PIT, DEN) and flourished against bad ones (CIN, NYJ). Lucky for Mr. Evans, he goes up against a Jacksonville D that is struggling mightily. In fact, they have given up 200+ yards through the air in 8 STRAIGHT GAMES!!! including 329 to Houston, 435 to New Orleans, and 309 to Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Evans needs to be in starting lineups this week and JP Losman isn’t a bad start either.
TE:
Jeremy Shockey, MIN @ NYG Shockey should also benefit from the Vikings pass defense, along with Plaxico Buress’ injury. The Giants TE should be the primary target on offense.
Owen Daniels, HOU @ CLE Daniels would have qualified as a Win for me last week if he hadn’t fumbled the ball and lost 2 FP. He should have another game of 5+ receptions and between 50-100 yards.
K:
Lawrence Tynes, MIN @ NYG Tynes should have a great week against the Vikings, who are terrific to play for kickers. They give up a ton of yardage, but the run D helps shut down offenses once the field gets shortened. This is visible in their being tied for 28th in the league with 25 FGAttempts against. Tynes should get 3 FG this week.
Jeff Reed, MIA @ PIT I have ridden Reed to two straight 10+ FP weeks and this streak should continue against a Dolphins defense that gives up a ton of points. Expect 10 to go through the uprights.
Adam Vinatieri, IND @ ATL Vinatieri, despite his “injury,” will be raring to go this week in hopes of proving his newly crowned doubters wrong. He should get enough attempts to make fantasy owners happy.
DEF:
Cardinals vs. SF Almost every defense is a good play against the 49ers at this point and the Cardinals are coming off a superlative game in which they intercepted Carson Palmer four times. Trent Dilfer is no Palmer as you know and the offensive line of SF is a sieve.
Giants vs. MIN The Giants will focus on shutting down the run, which they’ve done well so far this season, ranking 7th. Furthermore, they’ve held their last two opponents under 100 (82 and 25) yards. With Tarvaris Jackson under center, the Giants pass rush and secondary will be licking their chops.
Chiefs vs. OAK The Chiefs have been a model of fantasy consistency this year, ranking #1 in Fleaflicker’s consistency ratings. Jared Allen should terrorize Culpepper all night, which will lead to his customary 3 INTs.
SIT:
QB:
Jason Campbell, WAS @ TB Campbell has been very hot of late, with two straight games over 20 FP. That streak should end against a great secondary that has held three out of its last four opponents under 200 yards.
RB:
Earnest Graham, WAS @ TB That same Buccaneers defense has held its last two opponents to a total of 72 rushing yards, which does not bode well for Graham. I expect him to have a decent performance, but fail to register 10 FP.
Thomas Jones, NYJ @ DAL The Fleafounder is all over Jones this week after he registered his first 100-yard game with the Jets against the top-ranked Steelers run D. What he fails to realize is that the elder Jones brother is up against a 4th-ranked Dallas run defense that has given up 100 yards only three times all seasons and to only two teams (NYG twice). Jones will return to his struggling ways.
Chester Taylor, MIN @ NYG Last week, I was one of many fantasy pundits to tell fantasy owners to start Taylor at all costs. In fact, I went as far as to say he was a top-5 back last week. Well, the Giants aren’t the Raiders, and Taylor should be avoided this week unless you are thin at RB.
Mo Morris, SEA @ STL Morris is another back that is gaining momentum, despite not registering any 100-yard games this season. The Rams have been terrible against the run for most of the season, but have shut down their last two opponents. Look for both trends to continue as the Seahawks struggle to move the ball on the ground.
WR:
Anquan Boldin, SF @ ARI Boldin got spared another tough outing last week with a 44-yard TD reception on blown coverage by the Bengals (I think that may be their base formation). Boldin has not been consistent enough for my tastes this season and should struggle against the 9th-ranked secondary of the 49ers.
Dwayne Bowe, OAK @ KC Bowe made an incredible grab last week against the Colts that helped him produce a solid fantasy performance. This week, the Chiefs will keep the ball on the ground and Tony Gonzalez will be the recipient of Brodie Croyle’s few passes.
TE:
Chris Cooley, WAS @ TB I have Cooley in three leagues this year, which was nice last week. This week though, I expect him to struggle against the Buccaneers and their fast group of linebackers and safeties. Look elsewhere for fantasy production at TE this week if you can.
K:
Matt Stover, BAL @ SD Stover broke out of a mini slump last week against the Browns, but it shouldn’t last long. He goes up against one of the worst FG defenses in San Diego, who have only allowed 13 FGA all year. It’s usually TD or bust for Chargers opponents and the Ravens offense will likely be a bust.
DEF:
Lions vs. GB The Lions D has been a great value in fantasy leagues, despite being pretty terrible in real life. This week they will get lit up by Favre and Co. who will enjoy the Lions secondary to the tune of 400 yards. I also don’t see the Lions generating much push up front against a solid Packers O-line, which will limit their sacks and turnovers.
Titans @ CIN The Titans D seems to be losing steam after a solid start to the season. Last week they got lit up by a mediocre Broncos offense, which means they could have their hands full this week against a motivated Carson Palmer and friends. Stay away from them this week.
For those of you who made it this far, you are certainly troopers. Good luck on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday,
--Shimmering T.
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