Series Preview: Red Sox at Twins (5/4-5/6)
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by user Tylersalt
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Boston Red Sox (18-9, 1st in AL East) @ Minnesota Twins (15-13, 3rd in AL Central)
The Red Sox bring the best record in the majors to the Metrodome to meet reigning MVP Justin Morneau, batting champ Joe Mauer, best pitcher on the planet Johan Santana, and the rest of the Minnesota Twins. The Twins have struggled a bit so far this year, going 15-13 and sitting in 3rd place, 3.5 games behind the division-leading Cleveland Indians. The Boston pitching staff has been a real strength so far, but new import Daisuke Matsuzaka has struggled with control early. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but nothing consistent. Matsuzaka will not face the Twins, but the inconsistent back end of the Boston rotation will. The Twins look to improve on their mediocre 7-7 record at the Metrodome, a place where they have played very well over the past few seasons.
Game 1
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Venerable knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (2-3, 2.59) takes the mound for the Red Sox on Friday evening. Wakefield has pitched fairly well this season, but has gotten very little run support from the Boston offense. He has allowed only 9 earned runs so far, and carries a WHIP of 1.28, respectable for someone who has little to no control over his primary pitch. He has a 0.42 WPA, third among Boston starters, and better than all but three of the hitters.
Carlos Silva will meet him on the mound for Minnesota. Silva has a nifty 2.71 K/BB ratio, but his 1.52 WHIP is nothing to be proud of, nor is his .358 BABIP. All five of his starts have been quality, and beat the Detroit Tigers in his last start. He's 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his career against Boston.
Top Performers: Alex Cora and David Ortiz are both over .400 against Silva in their careers. Luis Castillo is 9-17 against Wakefield in his career.
Game 2
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This certainly looks like a lopsided pitching matchup on the face of it... and it is. Julian Tavarez is struggling to remain the Red Sox' fifth starter, and won't be much longer despite actually giving a strong outing last week against the New York Yankees. His WPA is -0.81, and he has a BRAA of -6.46. That's not very good. His WHIP is fairly rough at 1.58, and he's not a strikeout pitcher by any means, posting only 5.21 K/9. It would be real nice if he could post an outing like he did against the Yankees on the 29th, allowing three earned runs over 5 before handing it over to the bullpen. The bullpen has to be able to pitch about 4 innings whenever Tavarez starts, as he can't last more than 5 or so.
Johan Santana is struggling a tad this year, but that doesn't change the fact that he is the greatest pitcher alive. His WPA is 0.27, over a full game higher than Tavarez's. His rate stats are really good so far. He's striking out over 10 per game and over 4 per walk, and carries a .221 BAA and 1.08 WHIP. He has had trouble with the long ball, giving up 1.35 HR/9, as compared to 0.92 last season. He'll come around, and against Tavarez he could very well have the run support he needs to begin that process. He has not fared particularly well against the Red Sox in his career, however, going 3-4 in 11 appearances (8 starts) with a 3.55 ERA.
Key Performers: Jason Varitek is 7-16 against Santana for a .438 average with a home run. Torii Hunter is 0-6 against Tavarez, but has been swinging a hot bat lately.
Game 3
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Curt Schilling has been fantastic so far this year. He got a no-decision in his last outing against Oakland when the bullpen let him down. His K/BB is always strong, but right now is his lowest as a Red Sox except for his injury-ridden 2005 campaign, at 4.29. He's also walking 1.58 per 9 innings, which is good for almost anyone except Schilling. He's definitely become less of a thrower and more of a pitcher, but he's been effective as always with a 0.71 WPA so far.
Frankly, I'm not sure why Sidney Ponson is still in the league. It seems like every season someone takes a flier on him even though they know that he just got in a bar fight or something, and then he sucks, and then he's let go, but the next season someone picks him up again. This year, that team was the Twins. Ponson has not been very good this season, with a 2-3 record and a 6.67 ERA. His WPA is a team-worst -0.63, and his WHIP is an unfortunate 1.80.
Key Performers: Jeff Cirillo has the most experience and the most success against Schilling, with an 11-34 career mark. Manny Ramirez has a line of .404/.481/.511 and David Ortiz is .444/.533/.722 against Ponson.
