Series Preview: Red Sox at Padres (6/22-6/24)
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by user Tylersalt
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Boston Red Sox (46-25, 1st in AL East) @ San Diego Padres (41-30, T-1st in NL West)
Two of the top teams in the majors square off in a possible World Series matchup as the Sox meet the Padres at PETCO Park in San Diego. The story this weekend promises to be pitching, pitching and more pitching. The Sox are fresh off two straight shutouts of the Atlanta Braves, taking two of three from one of the top teams in the NL East. The Padres, amazingly, lost two of three to the lowly Baltimore Orioles, but remain tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Sox are 10-5 against the NL, while the Padres are only 5-5 against the Junior Circuit. Let's take a closer look at each game.
Game 1
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Daisuke Matsuzaka has pitched much better for the most part than his numbers indicate. His big trouble has been control, as his K/BB and BB/9 ratios are both near career worsts. His BABIP has been a rough and unlucky .319 on the season as well. However, his last start against the San Francisco Giants was masterful, as he spun 7 shutout innings and struck out 8 in the win.
All-time great Greg Maddux is turning in another late-vintage Maddux season, going 6-3 so far with an ERA just south of 4. He still doesn't strike out a whole lot of people, with a 4.85 K/9, but a real solid 3.36 K/BB ratio. His WHIP is a nice 1.14, and he's holding opposing batters to a .249 average. Maddux hasn't lost since May 14 against the Cincinnati Reds, and beat the Chicago Cubs in his last time out, hurling 6 innings and allowing 3 runs, striking out 1 and not walking anyone. Maddux is 5-0 in his career against the Olde Towne Team, but several current Sox, including 3B Mike Lowell and OF Wily Mo Pena have had success against him.
Result: Red Sox 2, Padres 1.
| W: | Daisuke Matsuzaka | 9-5, 4.01, 0.95 |
| L: | Greg Maddux | 6-4, 3.84, 0.72 |
| S: | Jonathan Papelbon | 17, 1.71, 2.08 |
Game 2
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It's been a tale of two seasons so far for venerable Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, but that's par for the course in Boston. The reliable innings-eater has not had more than two straight wins or losses all season, with a decision in every start. His K/BB is a predictable 1.44 for someone who doesn't know where his primary pitch is going 90% of the time. His last start against San Francisco was a win in a slugfest, but he defeated the Colorado Rockies in 8 one-run innings the start before. He's 1-0 in one start and three appearances in his career against San Diego, and few current Padres have had any success against him.
Chris Young is blossoming into a fantastic pitcher for the Padres and complements ace Jake Peavy nicely. He is 1-1 in his career against the Red Sox in two starts. He stands this season at 6.63 with a very strong 2.26 ERA. His WHIP is a strong 1.19, but he has struggled with his control a tad, walking over 3 batters every nine innings. Young is not quite an extreme flyball pitcher, but his 0.66 GB/FB can suit him well in pitcher-friendly PETCO.
Game 3
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A matchup of Cy Young favorites headlines the weekend in baseball. Josh Beckett has had 1 1/2 bad outings all season, while it could be argued that Jake Peavy hasn't had one. Beckett was great last time out, throwing 6 rain-shortened shutout innings and striking out 3 Braves. The Rockies handed him his first and only loss of the season last week. He has a very solid 7.70 K/9, and a strong 3.74 K/BB ratio. He has held opposing batters to just a .238 average this season, and a just-above average .291 BABIP.
Peavy has won his past two starts against the Orioles and Tampa Bay Devil Rays, striking out over a batter an inning over those games. Peavy leads National League starters with a 2.76 WPA and carries an ERA over two runs lower than the league average. Opponents are hitting only .230 against him, and he's carrying a 7.70 K/9 ratio. Really, these are just two fantastic pitchers any way you slice it, and I won't be missing this one.
