Series Preview: Red Sox at Blue Jays (5/8-5/10)
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by user Tylersalt
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Boston Red Sox (20-10, 1st in AL East) @ Toronto Blue Jays (13-18, 5th in AL East, 7.5 games back)
After getting swept by the Blue Jays in their last visit to Fenway Park, the Boston Red Sox will travel up to Toronto with revenge on their minds. The pitching matchups seem to favor Boston on the whole, but that's why they play the games. The Red Sox have been playing very well of late. They own the best record in the American League by a half game over Cleveland, and are ahead of the second place Yankees by 6 full games in the East heading into play on May 8th, my 22nd birthday.
The Blue Jays have struggled with injuries so far, but those have started to clear up to a certain extent. Since coming back from the DL, Troy Glaus has been on an absolute tear. His WPA of 1.06 leads the offense, as does his BRAA (batting runs above average) of 10.28. He has a gargantuan line of .352/.485/.741 so far. Perennial Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay is unequvicably their pitching star so far, amassing a 4-1 record with an ERA of 3.59 over 7 starts. He is the only Jays starter with a positive WPA, at 1.28. Alex Rios has cooled off considerably, and Vernon Wells has been sidelined with "flu-like symptoms" (read: bad hangover) for the past few days and has yet to get it back on track.
Game 1
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Josh Beckett has been one of, if not the, best pitcher in baseball thus far in the young season. He's the first Red Sox pitcher to win his first 6 starts since some money-grubbing egotistical douchebag did it in 1991. He is holding opposing hitters to just .228, striking out just south of 8 a game and just south of 4 per walk. He has only given up one home run in 39 2/3 innings, after giving up 34 last year and leading the AL in that ignominious category. His WHIP is a very strong 1.06, best among starters on the team, and is averaging almost 6 1/3 innings per start.
Victor Zambrano will always be remembered as that guy who looked so good to the New York Mets that they traded Scott Kazmir for him. Probably an unfair comparison, but Zambrano is just trying to come back from Tommy John surgery, and that's real hard to do. In his last start, his first of the year against the Cleveland Indians, he lasted only 2 2/3 innings on 65 pitches, gave up two runs on four hits, walked three and struck out one. Manager John Gibbons has said that they are trying to stretch him out a bit and be patient with him, but facing a red-hot Boston team is a learning experience in the wrong direction for the struggling Zambrano, especially facing a pitcher like Beckett who is on top of his game.
Key Performers: Vernon Wells is absolutely disgusting against Beckett, going 7-15 in his career with four dingers. David Ortiz is 5-12 against Zambrano in his career, with a .417/.632/1.000 line, 2 home runs, and a whopping 7 walks.
Game 2
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Daisuke Matsuzaka has struggled lately, but is getting a remarkable amount of slack from Boston fans and media members. Really, he's only pitched three or four bad innings all season -- the first inning against Seattle last week being the worst, but that one inning per game has really sunk each start he's had. He's still trying to get into a groove between starts, and I'm not too worried -- his BABIP is a rough .326. He'll come around. In his last start against Toronto he took a tough loss, going 6 innings and only giving up two runs. His WPA for that game was .073, but the offense couldn't get it going against Gustavo Chacin.
Former Red Sox Tomo Ohka is also struggling, but a fair bit worse than Matsuzaka. He got hit pretty badly in his last start against the Texas Rangers, giving up 7 runs in 7 1/3 innings. He's 1-1 against the Red Sox this year, losing his firshttp://www.armchairgm.com/index.php?title=Series_Preview:_Red_Sox_at_Blue_Jays_%285/8-5/10%29&action=edit Editing Series Preview: Red Sox at Blue Jays (5/8-5/10) - ArmchairGM - Sports Wiki, Sports Blog, Sports Resource, Sports Community, Sports 2.0t start but winning his second. In 11 1/3 innings against Boston, he's given up 7 runs (6 ER), 3 HR's, 10 hits, 7 strikeouts and four walks.
Key Performers: Wells, Jason Smith, and Lyle Overbay are the only Blue Jays with hits off of Matsuzaka. Mike Lowell is 3-4 off of Ohka this year, and 13-39 lifetime with 3 home runs.
Game 3
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Tim Wakefield's record does not reflect how well he has pitched so far this year. The Red Sox have made it sort of a habit over the past season-plus to not give Wake a whole lot of run support, which can make it a little hard to win games as a knuckleballer. His 0.92 WPA is impressive, as is a very nice .230 BABIP. As could be expected, Wakefield's K/BB ratio is an uninspiring 1.17, but he is also only giving up 0.47 HR/9, something that can also be a problem for him. Like Ohka, he is 1-1 this year against the Blue Jays, but doing much better at the Rogers Centre than at Fenway Park.
Roy Halladay looks like he's off to another great season. He's already pitched two complete games this season, and one of those was 10 innings! He's got a nifty 4.00 K/BB ratio, and is striking out 6.15 per 9. His BABIP is a little bit higher than average at .280, but his WHIP is solid (1.06) and his GB/FB ratio is over 2. He's pitched very well in his two starts (7 1/3 and 8 IP respectively) against the Red Sox this season, going 1-0 and with the no decision a very tough one where Boston came back hard in the 8th and 9th innings on a shaky Toronto bullpen.
Key Performers: Coco Crisp and Mike Lowell are the only two Red Sox regulars with career averages over .300 against Doc Halladay, but David Ortiz has 5 career home runs and 5 career doubles against him. Royce Clayton has the highest career average against Wakefield on Toronto at .308, and Frank Thomas has only 9 hits against him, but four of them were home runs.
