Series Preview: A's @ Red Sox (9/25-9/26)
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by Tylersalt
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Series Preview: Oakland Athletics (75-82, 3rd in AL West, 17.5 GB) AT Boston Red Sox (92-64, 1st in AL East
This season: Oakland leads season series 4-2.
Red Sox Nation holds its collective breath as the pesky Oakland A's come into Fenway Park for two games, hoping to play spoiler in the American League East race. The Boston Red Sox have been in a mini tailspin of late, losing four of their last six to division foes Tampa Bay and Toronto.
The Boston pitching staff, which has been such a strength for the team for most of the regular season (3.87 staff ERA, 3.18 bullpen ERA, 1.23 bullpen WHIP, all tops in the American League), has been decidedly shaky of late (4.41 staff ERA in the past week, 7th in AL), with their two best relievers being two of their biggest liabilities in Hideki Okajima, who melted down in the Yankees series, and normally unflappable closer Jonathan Papelbon, who was decidedly flapped by the Blue Jays, allowing runs in two of his last three outings, including a blown save and loss against New York. They will try to turn it around against the A's, who have the second lowest batting average in the American League.
The A's are not playing very good baseball right now either, as they have lost 6 of their last seven against Cleveland, Seattle, and Texas. They have had a very tough time at the plate all season, and have only two hitters above a 1.00 WPA on the year, Jack Cust and Nick Swisher, who are at 3.13 and 1.57 respectively. Granted, so do the Red Sox with David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, but they also have Mike Lowell knocking at the door at 0.96. The A's pitching staff is basically Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, then not much of anyone else. Haren looked like a Cy Young Award finalist for much of the year, but he only has 2 wins in his last 7 decisions. Haren and his team-leading 3.12 ERA will not face the Red Sox, as the A's will throw Blanton and Chad Gaudin. Injuries have really bit the A's hard this year. Mark Kotsay and Eric Chavez were out for the year starting a few weeks ago, Nick Swisher has not been his old self for most of the season, posting an OPS a full tenth of a point lower than last year.
Let's take a closer look at each of the pitching matchups.
Game 1
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Gaudin was a surprising 6-1 through the beginning of June, but has fallen off considerably since then. He is a rough 1-3 in his last four starts against division foes Los Angeles, Texas, and Seattle. Gaudin is 5-6 in 17 road starts this season, including a no-decision in a five-inning stint at Fenway in early May, his only start against Boston this season. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher, posting a 1.74 GB/FB ratio with a solid Oakland infield defense, but has struggled with his control at times, walking four batters per nine innings. In his first full season as a starter, he has allowed almost a home run per 9 innings, which could be a problem against the powerful Red Sox lineup.
Curt Schilling, nearing the end of what I think is a Hall of Fame career, has shown flashes of his old brilliance in a season that really has been remarkable only in being mediocre and unremarkable. The last time he faced the A's, he learned why you don't shake off Jason Varitek the hard way, losing what would have been the first of two no-hitters for the Red Sox with two outs in the ninth inning. Since then, he missed almost two months worth of starts with a shoulder injury, possibly incurred during said near-no-hitter. He sports a 9-4 career record against Oakland. He really needs to calm down and pitch well to get the Sox a much-needed W, and not try to duplicate the dominant effort he had in his last start against the boys in green and yellow. Like his teammate Daisuke Matsuzaka, Schilling needs to rely on his fastball less late in the count and go to his off-speed and breaking stuff more, especially his splitter. He worked very hard in the offseason developing a change-up, but I would argue that perhaps he is throwing it a bit too much, and should maybe stick to the splitter in situations in which he would possibly use the change.
Key Players: Nick Swisher and Shannon Stewart really need to pick it up against Schilling, as both of them sport averages below the Mendoza Line against Schilling in their careers. Jason Varitek could stand to snap out of his batting funk against Gaudin, who has four hits and two doubles in six career at-bats against Gaudin.
Game 2
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Blanton had a hard-luck start in his previous start against Boston, taking the loss despite only allowing 1 earned run in 7 1/3 innings (Schilling was the other pitcher). He has been the most consistent pitcher on the Oakland staff not named Haren so far this season. In contrast to Gaudin, he has won 3 of his last 4 starts, all against the three other members of the AL West. He has a very solid WHIP on the year, standing at 1.18, but he has had a good deal of trouble with men on base this season, with a 7.23 ERA with men on base, and a staggering 22.57 with RISP and 2 outs -- perhaps reflecting a weakness with buckling down and getting himself out of jams -- a weakness that can really come back and bite him against the Red Sox, who see the second most pitches in the AL and are second in OBP and third in SLG.
Lester could be one of the best stories in baseball this year, posting a 4-0 record so far this year after coming back from lymphoma in July. Lester stands to be a mainstay of the Red Sox rotation of the future, along with current stars Josh Beckett and Matsuzaka and rookie phenom Clay Buchholz. The only southpaw starter for Boston, Lester is 1-0 in three starts at Fenway this season. He has faced the A's only once in his career, last year, getting a no-decision in 5 innings of one-run ball. Lester is a power pitcher, although his strikeout numbers are down bit this season to 6.14 K/9. Like many power pitchers, he tends to walk a lot of batters as well, which can be trouble against a patient team like the A's -- especially considering that he has struggled with his control since coming back from cancer while his velocity has returned its normal low-to-mid 90's range on his fastball.
Key Players: The only active Athletic with a hit against Lester is Swisher, so it's hard to pick out a notable hitter for them. However, Swisher is generally the key to their offense, so he must produce for them to be successful. David Ortiz is 3-5 against Blanton this year, and 4-10 in his career. Manny Ramirez would be helpful, but there is still no word on his return to the lineup, and it might stand to reason that the Red Sox would keep him out until the playoffs, having clinched at least the Wild Card.
