NFL Preseason Awards/Projections
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Toby isn’t the only one who can pretend to be an expert when it comes to the NFL. Unlike Toby though, I won’t use my projections as a way of promoting my fantasy team and self-proclaimed drafting prowess. For those of you who are unaware, Toby drafted Brees and Adrian Peterson (his projected MVP and Rookie of the Year). He also projects his beloved Oakland Raiders to have the breakout performance of the year. In a completely different spin from Toby’s theme, I believe the offenses will continue to thrive. Talented rookies like Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Dwayne Jarrett, Brandon Jackson coupled with the emergence of second year players Bush, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Addai, Davis, Cutler, Lawrence Maroney, should lead to more points and scarier offenses. I would expect the numbers to continue to rise. Standings
NFC East
Philadelphia (10-6)
New York Giants (9-7)*
Dallas (8-8)
Washington (5-11)
NFC West
St. Louis (9-7)
Arizona (8-8)
San Francisco (7-9)
Seattle (7-9)
NFC South
New Orleans (11-5)
Carolina (9-7)*
Tampa Bay (5-11)
Atlanta (5-11)
NFC North
Chicago (12-4)
Minnesota (8-8)
Green Bay (5-11)
Detroit (5-11)
AFC East
New England (13-3)
NY Jets (10-6)*
Buffalo (7-9)
Miami (5-11)
AFC West
San Diego (11-5)
Denver (9-7)
Kansas City (5-11)
Oakland (4-12)
AFC South
Indianapolis (13-3)
Tennessee (9-7)
Jacksonville (7-9)
Houston (6-10)
AFC North
Baltimore (11-5)
Cincinnati (10-6)*
Pittsburgh (9-7)
Cleveland (4-12)
- Wildcard Winner
Wild Card Playoffs:
(3) Philadelphia over (6) Carolina; (5) Giants over (4) St. Louis
(4) Baltimore over (5) NY Jets; (3) San Diego over (6) Cincinnati
Divisional Playoffs:
(1) New England over (4) Baltimore; (1) Chicago over (5) Giants;
(3) San Diego over (2) Indianapolis; (2) New Orleans over (3) Philadelphia
Conference Championships:
(3) San Diego over (1) New England; (2) New Orleans over (1) Chicago
Super Bowl: San Diego over New Orleans 27 – 24
Top Players:
MVP: Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints Yes, it is probably two years too soon for this pick. Yes, Tomlinson, Brady, Brees and Manning are the easy picks, as they are the leaders of arguably the four best teams in the NFL going into the season. Bush’s upside is impossible to ignore. During his rookie year, Bush finished with 1300 combined yards, 88 receptions and 8 touchdowns. Bush’s offensive coordinator is just learning how to fully utilize his talent. With a full season under his belt, expect Bush to be on the field more often that last year. The versatile Bush lines up at running back, wide receiver and punt returner, making it very likely that he will be involved in the New Orleans scoring attack. Just ask Mr. Guevin what’s more valuable, the guy who simply hands the ball off or throws the short screen, or the guy who makes four guys miss on his way to a touchdown. Fantasy MVP: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals Guevin really went out on a limb by selecting Steven Jackson. Where is the fun in selecting one of the first round fantasy draft locks??? Carson Palmer is my pick because he put up beastly numbers on just one healthy leg. Despite his injury, Palmer passed the 4,000 yard mark for the first time in his career, finishing the season with a franchise record 4,035 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, only 13 interceptions and a 93.9 QB rating. Now Palmer is 20 months removed from reconstructive left knee surgery and feeling much healthier than last year. He still has all the same weapons, the Johnsons, Hoosh, and the poor Cincy D that keeps him involved in shootouts. Expect Palmer to match Manning’s numbers, and fantasy owners can grab him nearly two rounds later.
Fantasy LVP: Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs and Ravens TM Defense Finally, Toby got one right. LJ has been abused for the last two years, and the wear and tear on Johnson’s body will eventually catch up with him. Furthermore, Johnson’s holdout cost him valuable time in camp getting himself into game shape. The KC front office did very little for Johnson’s value, replacing Green with a rookie QB and making zero additions to the aging receiving core of Kennison and Gonzalez. Kennison wasn’t a #1 receiver years ago when KC signed him. He definitely isn’t one now at age 34. Expect Johnson to see 8 in the box all year. The Ravens D blew up last night, and I will be the first to tell you that I reaped the benefits all the way to the playoffs. However, Team Defenses are rarely consistent year to year. Baltimore lost arguably its best player, Adalius Thomas, to the New England Patriots this offseason. Ray Lewis is a year older. Baltimore is also playing a first place schedule this season, which includes games against the following offenses: Cincinnati (2), San Diego, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh (2), New England, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis, NY Jets, San Francisco and Buffalo. Baltimore will still be good, but they should fall far short of last year’s production.
Rookie of the Year (Fantasy and Reality): Calvin Johnson, WR Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson has all the tools you want in a wide receiver. He is incredibly tall and strong, yet he still has the speed to blow by most corner backs. Additionally, he is a very good route runner. Johnson comes from a good college program and he was virtually uncoverable. He now goes into an offensive system led by Mike Martz that likes to throw the football. Martz may make asinine decisions at times, but they are almost always in favor of scoring more points. With an earlier injury to Mike Furrey, expect Johnson to see playing time instantly. Also, playing alongside Roy Williams should give Johnson a lot of one-on-one coverage, which hopefully he will be able to exploit. Detroit is not a juggernaut, and I anticipate that they will be playing from behind for most of the year. This equates to more passing situations. Unlike Peterson, Johnson does not have to “split time” with anyone during the first half of the season. This should give Johnson a head start in the race for rookie of the year, and he will never look back. Comeback/Breakout Fantasy Player of the Year: Lamont Jordan, RB, Oakland Raiders
In 2005, the year before his injury riddled 2006 season, Jordan had 1600 total combined yards and 11 touchdowns. At that time, he was considered a top 10 back. I look at 2006 as a “year off” for Jordan, and now you should fully expect a bounce back year in 2007. Rhodes is out for the first four games, so the show is Jordan’s. Even if defenses shut down the Raiders’ rushing attack, Jordan is equally as valuable catching balls out of the backfield, as he caught 70 balls two years ago. Expect Jordan to average in the neighborhood of 10 or 11 points a game and creep his way back into top 20 running back status. Bust of the Year: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins His job status is already in question. Jesse Chatman is challenging him on the depth chart. Jesse Chatman??? This is not a good sign for a running back playing on a below average team. Miami has nothing to do but look towards the future, yet they are so down on Brown that they don’t think he has the potential worth developing. Miami has a poor offensive line, and a VERY old quarterback. Other than Chris Chambers, there are few options that an immobile Green can rely on. Look for the Miami offense to face eight in the box early and often, which spells trouble for their running game, no matter which back they choose.
Breakout Team: New York Giants
If Toby gets to bombard his column with homer picks, then I can slip one in. Yes, I am a Giants fan, and yes everyone is completely writing them off this year. Why shouldn’t you? I mean the franchise’s offensive star retired. The franchise’s defensive star nearly retired. The coach is a lame duck with a one year contract and very little support in the locker room. The face of the franchise looks like a deer in headlights half the time, and he is throwing off his back foot the other half. But that’s just it…everyone has written them off. It is in these types of situations tgood. Though he is not as versatile as Tiki, Jacobs should wear down defenses in the second halves of games. Eli will have loads of receiving weapons, from Plex to Shockey to Toomer to the recently drafted Steve Smith. His offensive line has another year together, and David Diehl will be more than a serviceable replacement for the often-injured Luke Petitgout. The Giants play inhat teams tend to come together. With Strahan in uniform, the front seven 7 should be very a very overrated division, as both Philly and Dallas have their fair share of holes, as well as a very mediocre conference in which only New Orleans and Chicago have separated themselves from the rest of the competition. Plus, the Giants have a 3rd place schedule this year in which New England and Chicago should be the only “guaranteed” losses. In fact their opponents in the remaining 14 games had a combined record of 103-120 last season. So as everyone continues to write the Giants off, they could potentially bond together and rattle off 9 or 10 wins.
--Golden Boy at FleaFantics
