Gomez/Drury Analysis Part IV: Salary Cap Suicide?
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So we've finally made it to the last installment of my four part analysis of the Gomez and Drury signings. The last major issue to analyze is how the signings will effect the Rangers in light of the new salary cap system introduce in the NHL. Some would have us believe that the teams' signings of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury have placed a noose around the team's financial neck for years to come. We know that the team is up against the "cap wall" for this season. What about the future? Will the Rangers be financially paralyzed for the 2008-09 season? Take a look at this list:
1. Brendan Shanahan: $2.5m base.$2.8m bonuses: $5.3m per season
2. Martin Straka: $3.3m per season
3. Paul Mara: $3.0m per season
4. Darius Kaspasraitis: $2.989m per season
5. Michal Rozsival: $2.5m per season
6. Jason Strudwick: $500,000 per season
7. Andrew Hutchinson: $475,000 per season.
That's a list of players who's contracts are expiring after the upcoming season. With the exception of Roszival (possibly), none of them will be back (unless they're willing to play for a steep discount). What that means is that the Rangers will have over $18m of cap space just from these players.
Sean Avery and his $1.9m contract will also expire at seasons end as does Marcel Hossa's $780,000 contract. If the Rangers are unwilling or unable to resign either of these players, the cap picture looks even better.
Obviously, some of the teams core players will become RFA's looking for raises. Most notably, Henrik Lundqvist and Fedor Tyutin. However, it appears as though signing these players shouldn't be a problem given the amount of money that will be freed up at seasons end.
Granted, the Rangers will have to fill the vacancies created by these players' departures. Here's where the Rangers' critics jump in: they argue that since the team has committed nearly $15m per season for just two players, how can the Rangers possibly expect to have enough money left over to round out the rest of their roster?!? They point to the Tampa Bay Lightning as an example of the dangers wrought by investing too much money into too few players. These, critics, however, are missing one crucial point: The Rangers have quality prospects who can be used to fill out roster spots, Tampa doesn't. In fact, Hockey's Future ranked the Rangers sixth (6th) in the NHL in terms of the quality of its prospects while Tampa was ranked 29th!. By filling roster spots with young players the Rangers will be able to keep their cap charge down since these players are still playing out their relatively cheap entry level contracts. Here's a list (by position) of some notable prospects who should be ready to step in by 2008-09:
1. Al Montoya - Goaltender. This kid looks like the real deal and is probably ready to play in the NHL now. The emergence of Lundqvist, however, makes Montoya the odd man out. Look for the Rangers to trade him at some point. He should be able to fetch a handsome return.
2. Marc Staal - Defense. All indications are that the Rangers have got themselves a gem. Staal should definitely be able to take one of the roster spots that will become available with the departure of all of the aforementioned defenseman currently on the Rangers' roster.
3. Bobby Sanguinetti - Defense. Here's part of what Hockey's Future says, "Sanguinetti has the potential to be a member of an NHL first defensive pairing." What I like most about the kid is that he's thrilled to be a Ranger having grown up idolizing Brian Leetch.
The Rangers also have Thomas Pock and Dan Girardi who have already spent some time with the big club in promising stints. These guys will presumably be able to fill some of the vacancies on the blue line in 2008-09. The most important thing about them (in terms of salary cap analysis) is that they'll be relatively cheap.
Up front, the Rangers have well known prospects Nigel Dawes, Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov and Ryan Callahan battling for roster spots this season. By 2008-09, some of these guys should be able to fill the spots vacated by Straka, Shannahan and perhaps Avery. In addition, the Rangers also have a number of other quality prospects up front. Most notably, Alex Bourret, Brodie Dupont and Lauri Korpikoski. Last, but certainly not least is this seasons #1 draft pick Alexei Cherapanov who may very well turn into a special player for the New York Rangers.
It would certainly appear that the Rangers have the young talent necessary to round out their roster. If the team needed to look towards free agency to fill every roster spot then, perhaps, there would be cap trouble on the horizon. Fortunately, however, that is not the case. Some of these young players should be able to adequately fill roles that will be opened in the near future. These players are still relatively cheap as they are playing under their entry level contracts. Over-all, the cap outlook in New York looks pretty encouraging.
The beauty of the Gomez and Drury signings are that the Rangers have their core centerman locked up for years to come. The incoming young talent will be asked to play supporting roles rather then primary ones. That's a huge bonus for young players learning the ins and outs of the best league in all of hockey. The presence of Gomez and Drury should help ease the transitions that these youngsters will face.
The Blueshirt Bulletin recently ran a great feature praising the Rangers' ability to rebuild while dressing a competitive team. With Gomez, Drury and Lunqvist in the fold and the impressive stable of young talent already in the system, the Rangers should be able to continue that trend into the foreseeable future.
If the Rangers' youngsters do in fact realize their potential on Broadway, not only will the Rangers not be in cap trouble, on the contrary, New York fans may get to see the likes on Dany Heatley or Wade Redden playing at The World's Most Famous Arena!
It goes without saying that I give Slats & Co. to very enthusiastic thumbs up for the signings of Gomez and Drury. The Rangers are unquestionably a better team today then they were at the end of last season. Given the strength of the teams' prospects, I believe that the future cap outlook for the team is just fine. The Rangers should be competitive for years to come with Gomez and Drury anchoring their top two lines.
Don't forget to check out the first three parts of the analysis over here, here and here.
