False Prophet vs. Davis21wylie NFL Playoff prediction update/predictions
| 14
|
by user False Prophet and Davis21wylie
So the two of us have a challenge going on to decide who is better at picking the NFL Playoffs. Davis21Wylie has his highly accurate formula that he is using, and False Prophet has his own logic that has betrayed him 1 time in the past 2 years. Here's how we did in the Wild Card weekend.
Recap, Round 1
D21Dub
*=Correct Predictions A-B Team A% Team B% OddsA Home A B Favorite ------------------------------------------------------------------- IND-KC 0.591 0.513 57.8% 3.1% 61.0% 39.0% Indy* SEA-DAL 0.451 0.564 38.8% 3.1% 42.0% 58.0% Dallas NE-NYJ 0.647 0.487 65.9% 3.1% 69.0% 31.0% New England* PHI-NYG 0.590 0.488 60.2% 3.1% 63.3% 36.7% Philly* -------------------------------------------------------------------
Wild Card Record: 3-1
Total Record: 3-1
'Prophet
*=Correct Predictions ----------------------------------- Winner KC SEA* NE* PHI* ----------------------------------- Loser IND DAL NYJ NYG -----------------------------------
Wild Card Record: 3-1
Overall Record: 3-1
Divisional Round Predictions
D21Dub
The Objective Predictions:
A-B Team A% Team B% OddsA Home A B Favorite -------------------------------------------------------------------- SDG-NWE 0.667 0.647 52.2% 3.1% 55.3% 44.7% San Diego BAL-IND 0.681 0.591 59.6% 3.1% 62.8% 37.2% Baltimore CHI-SEA 0.627 0.451 67.2% 3.1% 70.3% 29.7% Chicago NOR-PHI 0.600 0.590 51.0% 3.1% 54.2% 45.8% New Orleans --------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: The Following predictions do not count in the challenge, these are purely for fun.
The Subjective Predictions:
- San Diego vs. New England - The key matchup will obviously be LaDainian Tomlinson against the Pats' run D, which ranked 10th in the league by Football Outsiders' metrics. If LT can have one of his signature performances, it could seriously hamper New England's chances, especially since the Bolts are at home. Likewise, the Pats' rushing game could enjoy a fine performance against San Diego's run defense, which was one of the weaker run-stopping units in the NFL during the regular season. But in a game of this magnitude, the passers also deserve a lot of focus. Tom Brady had another mistake-free playoff game vs. the Jets last week, and San Diego's secondary is not a particularly top-flight group. Meanwhile, New England's pass D ranked 7th during the season, and could prove a daunting opponent for Philip Rivers, who faded down the stretch of the regular season and boasts no playoff experience. And you can be sure that Bill Belichick will draw up a scheme to confuse the young passer, making San Diego's task that much harder. In other words, based on their track record, New England has to be the (slight) favorite here -- numbers be damned.
- Baltimore vs. Indianapolis - I smell an ambush. Indy will be walking into an incredibly hostile environment, against an opponent that has doubtless used their week off to strengthen their game plan. Peyton Manning did not look like himself against K.C. last week, and Baltimore has the best defense in football. If the Colts are to win, they will have to exploit the Ravens' weak running game and force Steve McNair to make plays in long-yardage situations. But McNair is looking as sharp recently as Manning looked confused last week... This should be a fun matchup to watch, but I just don't see Indianapolis winning. You gotta take Baltimore.
- Chicago vs. Seattle - People are saying that this showdown is all about Rex Grossman, but it doesn't have to be. Seattle's run defense was extremely porous during the regular season, while the Bears boasted one of the top rushing attacks in the league. If they can control the ball (specifically keeping Grossman out of long-yardage situations), Chicago should have a very good chance to win against a Seahawks squad that underachieved all season and were lucky to advance past Dallas last week. Theoretically, the Bears are facing the weakest team remaining in the postseason, and even though Seattle is certainly capable of another upset, their luck probably ran out with the Romo gaffe. Consider Chicago the favorite in this matchup.
- New Orleans vs. Philadelphia - Both of these teams have overcome serious obstacles just to get to this point, but one of their storybook seasons has to come to a close this weekend. Which will it be? Philly's offense is dynamic and versatile, and should be able to have their way with New Orleans' suspect defense. New Orleans has an equally high-powered offense, although Philly's D is better than that of the Saints' (especially in the secondary). Since these two teams are so evenly-matched, this game may come down to special teams -- the Eagles' specialists have been disappointing all season long, and they've been particularly deficient in the second half of the year. Whatever happens, it should be a fun game to watch. I'll give New Orleans the nod by virtue of their being at home, but it's far from a lock.
'Prophet
No crazy formulas, almost no stats or ranks, just my thoughts and analysis.
vs. 
Brady vs. Rivers, The Teacher vs. Marty Ball. Bolts O vs. Pats D. Bellichik has likely been working on a gameplan for the Chargers since they clinched a playoffs spot , and I'm sure he's found a way to keep LT out of the End zone. What the pats have to do to win is simple, score quickly and early multiple times. If the pats get up 10-0 or 14-0, and the chargers have had 2 3 and outs and a long drive that is ended just out of field goal range, the Bolts will have to start throwing, which means the Pats can blitz and mess up Rivers. I think this will be fun to watch, but the Pats get it done.
vs. 
There isn't a heck of a lot to say about this game. Manning will get blitzed, and sacked. Addai will get nowhere on the ground, and the Colts will lose in an absolute blowout.
vs. 
I love what the Saints have done this year. It has been ammazing and a good sign of the future, but I just don't buy into them as a top 5 team. The Eagles, on the other hand, are amazing. They may have beaten the Giants on a GW Field Goal, but the Giants actually showed up to play last week, and the Saints were not hot to end the season. I think that as long as Brian Westbrook has a good game, the Eagles will win.
vs. 
This is a hard game. The Bears have a bad offense, and we will se what they can do on defense with one of their starters out and Tank Johnson not being quite focused on the game. I think I have to go with the Bears, because when I wrote my False Prophet's 2006 NFL Playoff Preview, I had this matchup going to the Bears.
