False Prophet vs. Davis21wylie NFL Playoff Challenge Update/Predictions
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by users False Prophet and Davis21wylie
So the two of us have a challenge going on to decide who is better at picking the NFL Playoffs. Davis21Wylie has his highly accurate formula that he is using, and False Prophet has his own logic that has betrayed him 1 time in the past 2 years. Here's how we did in the Divisional Round.
Recap, Round 2
D21Dub
*=Correct Predictions A-B Team A% Team B% OddsA Home A B Favorite -------------------------------------------------------------------- SDG-NWE 0.667 0.647 52.2% 3.1% 55.3% 44.7% San Diego BAL-IND 0.681 0.591 59.6% 3.1% 62.8% 37.2% Baltimore CHI-SEA 0.627 0.451 67.2% 3.1% 70.3% 29.7% Chicago* NOR-PHI 0.600 0.590 51.0% 3.1% 54.2% 45.8% New Orleans* --------------------------------------------------------------------
Divisional Round Record: 2-2
Total Record: 5-3
'Prophet
*=Correct Predictions ----------------------------------- Winner BAL NE* CHI* NO ----------------------------------- Loser IND SD SEA PHI -----------------------------------
Divisional Round Record: 2-2
Overall Record: 5-3
Conference Championship Predictions
D21Dub
The Predictions:
A-B Team A% Team B% OddsA Home A B Favorite -------------------------------------------------------------------- IND-NE 0.591 0.647 44.1% 3.1% 47.2% 52.8% New England CHI-NO 0.627 0.600 52.8% 3.1% 56.0% 44.0% Chicago --------------------------------------------------------------------
The Breakdowns:
Indianapolis vs. New England - Brady-Manning. The Final Reckoning. Does it get any better than this? Well, maybe. Neither team impressed in their Divisional victories: the Colts, heretofore owners of an abysmal defense, had to rely on that unit (and a little Adam Vinatieri) to beat Baltimore when Peyton Manning suffered through another uncharacteristically bad game; meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Pats were outplayed for the majority of their game against San Diego, only winning thanks to a couple of lucky breaks and an inspired final drive. But one of them has to win this weekend...
On paper, New England should have a slight edge despite being on the road. Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney ought to run at will against Indy's (theoretically) weak rush D... but remember that they only combined for 51 yards last week, against a Chargers defense that isn't much better at stopping the run. If New England can't run the ball effectively, Brady may be forced into the same types of situations that led him to play so poorly last week (recall as well that Indy's Cover 2 picked Brady off 4 times when they met earlier this season). In other words, if the Patriots are to win this game, they must play a run-first, ball-control style, exploiting Indy's run defense and keeping the pressure off Brady.
With "regular-season Manning" at the helm, Indianapolis' passing game could be their ticket to Miami... But #18 has underwhelmed in recent weeks, and Bill Belichick's 3-4 defense has always been the kryptonite to Manning's Superman during the playoffs. Balance ought to be Indy's goal on offense, then, since the Patriots' run defense is a beatable group. With the off-tackle stretch play as one of the keys to their offense, the Colts could take advantage of a New England D that lacks speed at the edges. But even that plan has its flaws, as Joseph Addai will not be at 100% this weekend. Still, balance needs to be Indy's motto on offense, if not simply to give Manning a fighting chance to exorcise his Patriot demons.
Despite the subpar performances by each team last week, this has all the makings of an epic. Brady vs. Manning, Belichick vs. Dungy, Vinatieri vs. Gostkowski -- it's a battle of two very evenly-matched teams. New England has been the better team all year long, while Indy is playing better right now and they're at home... It's a tough call, but I'm going with New England. I think they will be able to establish the run, quietly rely on their superior special teams, and frustrate Manning again. But it will be a terrific game, likely decided in the final minutes.
Chicago vs. New Orleans - Are the Saints officially America's Team? Before Hurricane Katrina, many expected the franchise to bolt New Orleans for the greener pastures of another city; and when Katrina struck, the team became wandering nomads, playing 13 games on the road and stumbling to a 3-13 record. In the wake of their disastrous 2005, the Saints looked every bit as wrecked as their home city... But suddenly, an amazing chain of events transpired -- first, Reggie Bush fell into their laps on draft day; then, they hired Sean Payton as head coach and revamped their offense with QB Drew Brees and young talents like Marques Colston; and finally, they were greeted with a wave of support everywhere they went, especially at the Superdome, which sold out for the first time ever. Now they're the darlings of the NFL, having won 11 of their 17 games so far this season, and they sit on the cusp of a Super Bowl. Their opponents in the NFC Championship Game are the Chicago Bears, who fizzled down the stretch after a great start. Da Bears are the next-to-final hurdle for the Saints to overcome en route to one of the greatest Cinderella stories in sports history... but can they weather the fierce cold of Soldier Field and finish the job? Let's break it down.
Last week, Chicago required some overtime heroics from kicker Robbie Gould to advance past an inferior Seattle team, as the Grossman-led offense was once again moribund. The good news is that New Orleans' defense is no better than that of the Seahawks -- meaning Grossman and company will get another chance to at least not suck, and let the defense do their thing. Once again, ball control will be imperative, as Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson must keep the chains moving and keep the pressure off of Grossman. When they are forced to pass, protection will be key against the fearsome pass rush of Will Smith and Charles Grant. But the main focus for Grossman should be to avoid turnovers at all costs, and exploit the play-action opportunities afforded him by Jones and Benson's rushing.
The more compelling matchup this weekend will be between New Orleans' high-octane offense and the Bears schizophrenic defense. The loss of Tommie Harris has taken the wind completely out of this defense's sails, and it showed last week, when a mediocre Seattle offense was able to move the ball against them with regularity. Without the pressure Harris brings, Brees and the Saints should be able to really open up the passing game against the Bears, using their scary-talented stable of skill players to their fullest potential. Luckily for Chicago, though, their run defense is just as tough as ever, and it could prove the difference in this game if it can shut down Deuce McAllister and Bush on first down.
In the final analysis, this game will come down to the Bears' defense. If Chicago plays like they did in the first half of the season (a big if without Harris), and Grossman plays the caretaker and limits his mistakes, the Bears will win this game. But if the Saints are allowed to run wild on offense, Chicago's offense may not provide enough scoring for the team to stay afloat. Throw in some Chicago weather, though, and it will be a close affair. By virtue of home-field advantage, I'm taking Chicago... with reservations. The strength-vs.-strength matchup of New Orleans' offense against Chicago's defense should be fun to watch, at any rate.
'Prophet
Forget formulas, forget everything. I am here to tell you the winners of the game from an objective point of view, mine.
vs. 
Some people think this is finally Peyton's year. I say you have to have a better reason than that to bet against the Pats right now. They have one of the top Defenses in the league, expected to be strengthened by the Possible return of Rodney Harrison. They have a strong Offense that won't have a problem against Freeney. Why? They handled the Chargers D well enough to keep Brady on his feet, and Freeney is only 1 guy vs the rest of the Chargers D being tough to stop. Maroney and Dillon don't need to run a lot, just enough to give them a running threat, so Brady can step up and throw. Last week required some heroics by Troy Brown to win, but I still think that they did enough to win last week, and that they could have figured out a way to win even if that fumble diddn't happen.
The Colts, on the other hand, score 0 TD's last week. 0? From such a dynamic offense? It just doesn't seem right. The Pats defense that is good at stopping the run will also be able to stop the pass with Harrison practicing Thursday, making it more likely he will start. I picked the Pats last week, and I'll take them this week.
vs. 
The Saints are the story of the year. Ravaged by Katrina, and faced with a possibilty of being moved, the Saints come back to the Superdome, and finish second in the JV Conference. This offense has been phenominal, but the question is which Chicago Defense will show up.
the Bears need a good game from Grossman in order to win, and for their defense to show up to play. Last week required a miracle in OT to win against a lack luster Seatle team that I think is vastly overrated. I have to go against them this time, if only because I think the Bears defense is no longer quite as dominating as it was in the Regular Season.
