False Prophet vs. Davis21wylie NFL Playoff Challenge/Super Bowl Predictions
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by users False Prophet and Davis21wylie
So, the two of us have a challenge going on to decide who is better at picking the NFL Playoffs. Davis21Wylie has his highly accurate formula that he is using, and False Prophet has his own logic that has betrayed him 1 time in the past 2 years.
We are also making predictions on the line based off of Thursday's Minneapolis Star Tribune:
Favorite Line O/U Underdog ---------------------------------------- Indianapolis 7 48 Chicago
Recap, Round 3
Here's how we did in the Conference Championship round:
D21Dub
*=Correct Predictions A-B Team A% Team B% OddsA Home A B Favorite -------------------------------------------------------------------- IND-NE 0.591 0.647 44.1% 3.1% 47.2% 52.8% New England CHI-NO 0.627 0.600 52.8% 3.1% 56.0% 44.0% Chicago* --------------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Championship Round Record: 1-1
Total Record: 6-4
'Prophet
*=Correct Predictions -------------------- Winner NE NO -------------------- Loser IND CHI --------------------
Conference Championship Round Record: 0-2
Overall Record: 5-5
Super Bowl XLI Predictions
D21Dub
The Updated Rankings:
For the Super Bowl, I ran the playoff numbers on Indianapolis and Chicago, just to get the most complete dataset possible on the two teams. After beating highly-ranked New Orleans by a wide margin, Chicago still holds a slight edge...
Team G pW1 pW%1 pW2 pW%2 Raw SOS NewRtg --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Chicago Bears 18 11.2 0.622 13.9 0.774 0.698 0.449 0.636 Indianapolis Colts 19 12.9 0.681 11.8 0.622 0.651 0.531 0.621 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Prediction:
A-B Team A% Team B% OddsA Home A B Favorite ----------------------------------------------------------------- CHI-IND 0.636 0.621 51.6% 0.0% 51.6% 48.4% Chicago -----------------------------------------------------------------
The Breakdown:
When Indianapolis Has The Ball: Did you hear? The Colts have a great offense and the Bears have a great defense! I know everyone is trying to keep this "strength vs. strength" matchup a secret and everything, but somehow it got out...
Let's be clear on exactly how dominant this Colts O is: they were easily the best in football, miles ahead of San Diego's second-ranked unit. In fact, Indy's attack probably ranks among the greatest offenses of all time, along with the 1999-2001 Rams and the early-eighties Redskins. With Peyton Manning slinging the ball to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark, the strength of this high-octane unit is through the air. But the running game, led by Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes, is no slouch, either. Look for a healthy dose of off-tackle stretch plays this Sunday when Indy wants to run the ball.
How do the Bears match up on defense? Chicago boasted the NFL's top D for much of the year, but the Tommie Harris injury in Week 13 seriously hampered this unit's effectiveness. They did not suffer much in terms of run defense, but Harris is a scary pass-rusher, and his absence turned the Bears' pass D from a strength into a major weakness -- especially on third down. Chicago's defense made something of a return to their old ways against New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game, but against Manning and Co. at a neutral site, this unit is not looking quite as appealing as it had earlier in the season.
The key matchup here is in the passing game: the Bears have to slow down the Colts' passing attack by pressuring Manning and maintaining coverage downfield -- something much easier said than done. They certainly can contain Addai up front, especially since Tank Johnson was cleared to play Sunday. Brian Urlacher is the X-factor; he is remarkably good at coverage for a LB, and is a weapon the likes of which none of the Colts' opponents possessed (except Baltimore's Ray Lewis -- but it wasn't the Ravens' defense that lost them that game). Simply put, to win the Super Bowl Chicago's D must bring an even greater effort this Sunday than they did against the Saints... and this time they don't have the weather on their side.
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Manning Peyton 2006 clt qb 16 303.0 2057.5 171.46 0.566 100.86 6.30 2.52 Harrison Marvin 2006 clt wr 16 47.5 739.5 61.63 1.297 50.56 3.16 1.26 Addai Joseph 2006 clt rb 16 245.0 1272.5 106.04 0.433 48.96 3.06 1.22 Wayne Reggie 2006 clt wr 16 43.0 697.0 58.08 1.351 48.06 3.00 1.20 Rhodes Dominic 2006 clt rb 16 204.0 789.0 65.75 0.322 18.22 1.14 0.46 Clark Dallas 2006 clt te 12 15.0 202.5 16.88 1.125 13.38 1.12 0.33 Utecht Ben 2006 clt te 14 18.5 187.5 15.63 0.845 11.31 0.81 0.28 Fletcher Bryan 2006 clt te 14 9.0 110.5 9.21 1.023 7.11 0.51 0.18 Stokley Brandon 2006 clt wr 4 4.0 47.5 3.96 0.990 3.03 0.76 0.08 Moorehead Aaron 2006 clt wr 12 4.0 46.0 3.83 0.958 2.90 0.24 0.07 Proehl Ricky 2006 clt wr 2 1.5 15.0 1.25 0.833 0.90 0.45 0.02 Carthon Ran 2006 clt rb 3 3.0 14.0 1.17 0.389 0.47 0.16 0.01 Dorsey DeDe 2006 clt rb 13 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 Snow Justin 2006 clt te 16 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sorgi Jim 2006 clt qb 2 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wilkins T. 2006 clt wr 15 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When Chicago Has The Ball: Did you hear? Rex Grossman is a stunningly mediocre quarterback! I know the media is trying to keep this a secret and everything, but somehow it got out...
For the Bears, everything hinges on establishing the running game. If Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson get the ball moving early and often, Grossman will be able to exploit play-action opportunites and limit his mistakes -- which will be the only way Chicago wins this game. If they find themselves behind and forced into a pass-first gameplan, the Bears can kiss any hope of a championship goodbye.
As oft-criticized as this Bears offense has been, the Colts' D has been just as maligned all season long -- until the playoffs, that is. The book on Indy is that they cannot stop the run to save their lives, which was true for 17 weeks (they held approximately no one under 100 yards on the ground during the regular season), but startlingly false the last four weeks (nobody gained 100 yards on the ground vs. Indy in the playoffs). So have the Colts made a shocking defensive turnaround just in the nick of time? We'll find out on Sunday.
I think I'll repeat myself for emphasis: the Bears must establish the run to win. That means the Colts must stuff the run... but they can't afford to bring Bob Sanders into the box, as Chicago's only consistently effective passing strategy has been to throw long passes deep downfield. So maybe they rush Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney inside more often, or force the Colts to run to the edges, where Indy's defensive speed gives them an advantage. But, either way, they have to force Grossman to take to the air.
Surname Name Season Team Pos G Plays TAY Net Pts Pts/Ply PAR PAR/G WARP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jones Thomas 2006 chi rb 16 313.5 1294.5 107.88 0.344 34.83 2.18 0.87 Muhammad Muhsin 2006 chi wr 16 30.0 454.5 37.88 1.263 30.89 1.93 0.77 Berrian Bernard 2006 chi wr 15 27.5 420.5 35.04 1.274 28.63 1.91 0.72 Clark Desmond 2006 chi te 16 22.5 341.5 28.46 1.265 23.22 1.45 0.58 Benson Cedric 2006 chi rb 15 160.0 707.0 58.92 0.368 21.64 1.44 0.54 Grossman Rex 2006 chi qb 16 265.5 943.5 78.63 0.296 16.76 1.05 0.42 Bradley Mark 2006 chi wr 10 7.0 155.5 12.96 1.851 11.33 1.13 0.28 Davis Rashied 2006 chi wr 16 11.0 161.0 13.42 1.220 10.85 0.68 0.27 Peterson Adrian 2006 chi rb 16 13.0 103.0 8.58 0.660 5.55 0.35 0.14 McKie Jason 2006 chi rb 15 20.5 97.5 8.13 0.396 3.35 0.22 0.08 Gage Justin 2006 chi wr 8 2.0 34.0 2.83 1.417 2.37 0.30 0.06 Gilmore John 2006 chi te 16 3.0 29.0 2.42 0.806 1.72 0.11 0.04 Reid Gabe 2006 chi te 13 2.0 18.5 1.54 0.771 1.08 0.08 0.03 Currie Airese 2006 chi wr 1 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 Runnels J.D. 2006 chi rb 2 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 Griese Brian 2006 chi qb 6 22.0 29.5 2.46 0.112 -2.67 -0.44 -0.07 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Special Teams: This another "hidden area" where the Bears chip away at Indy's advantage. Thanks to Devin Hester, Robbie Gould, Brad Maynard, and co., the Bears have the best special teams in football, and their efforts will give Grossman a much-needed advantage in field position. As good as the Bears' specialists are, the Colts' special teams are that bad, especially on kick/punt coverage.
Bottom Line: The oddsmakers, for some reason, have decided that the Colts are a vastly superior team to the Bears, but the facts do not quite bear this out. Chicago had a much better point differential during the regular season (albeit in a weaker conference), and they convincingly beat a legit Top-5 team to secure a spot in Miami (whereas Indy squeaked past their equally legit opponent in the AFC title game). Plus, there are numerous examples of teams with the shaky QB-dominant D combination pulling a Super Bowl surprise, but few teams with defenses as shaky as the Colts' have ever won it all. Despite all the hoopla, the Colts are a flawed team. If Chicago plays to their abilities on both sides of the ball, they will win Super Bowl XLI. It's going to be a close game, but I'm going with the Chicago Bears as your 2006 NFL Champions.
Spread-wise, I obviously think the Bears will cover. I'm also taking the under; 'Prophet is right about there being no way the two teams get into a wide-open scorefest.
In closing, I'd like to say that it's been a great season, everybody (as predicted by me!). Thanks for reading, and enjoy the Big Game tomorrow!
'Prophet
Forget formulas, forget everything. I am here to tell you the winners of the game from an objective point of view, mine.
The Prediction
vs. 
Peyton finally made the big game. Congradulations, now lets see how he does so we know who to compare him to, Elway or Marino. The Colts are overrated. They beat a New England Patriots team that was injured, and henceforth had several defensive players that were battling sickness and faitigue, both of which killed an all ready tired defense. Brady slipped up on that last drive. I'm not going to say that was the play, I'm just saying Brady slipped up for once (he's only human, you know), and it happened to be when it mattered most.
The Bears...what to say. Their defense is legit, as I found out last week. Grossman can control the game and is not a bad QB, and Benson and Jones are able to work together. I have nothing to criticize them on that they haven't proven wrong.
This game comes down to, get this, the Colts punter. If he lets Devin Hester return punts, the Colts are in trouble. My prediction is this game will be won by Hester (a la Desmond Howard in '96). Neither offense will get very far at all, and Hester will retun at least one for a TD if not more. I'll go with the Bears to win SB XLI.
Vs. the Spread
Favorite Line O/U Underdog ---------------------------------------- Indianapolis 7 48 Chicago
I have thought about this alot. When I see this, there is one prediction that is easy for me. The over/under whichis set at 48. There is no way that this game will go over 48 points, the Bears will not be trying to sling the ball down field and score every play, and the Colts will get stuck a lot against a very good defense. I'll take the under.
As for the Line. I think that 7 points is a bit of a large margin for what should be a close game. Most Super Bowls in the 21st century have been decided by less than a TD. I will take Chicago to cover.
