Contender/Pretender N.L. Edition June 2006
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by user JuTMSY4
Like yesterdays article, today I feature the Senior Circuit, specifically, which teams seem ready to make the playoff push and make a bid towards to fall classic. I reviewed the American League teams yesterday and got some interesting feedback, namely a lot of you defending the Detroit Tigers. Well today, we see what kind of heat I can take for making picks in the National League. Without further adieu, I give you Contender/Pretender!
National League East
Atlanta Braves
First of all, this team merits a contender point by virtue of the fact that they have won 14 straight division titles. Of course that point is lost namely due to their in ability to stay ahead of the Marlins, which, most believe is fielding the worst team, possibly in the National League. So what’s wrong this year, easy. The braves feature one of the worst team OBP, .329, 12th in the NL, while their team average, runs scored and runs driven in are all among the tops in the league. The real problem here has been pitching. Without guru Leo Mazzone, they have a 4.83 ERA, 14th in the NL, and they’ve given up the 2nd most runs in the NL. If Bobby Cox and company are going to right the ship, they shouldn’t blame their offense. Sure they have some guys who can’t get on base, but if your team needs to score a ton of runs to support the staff, which this team has never needed to do before, you’re in trouble. By virtue of the fact that this team has won 14 straight titles, I’m a little hesitant, but…
PRETENDER
New York Mets
The Mets have loaded up this year and are preparing for a serious run at the title. They currently stand 2nd in the league in runs, hits, and RBIs and are among the top 5 in the league in average, slugging, home runs and so on. They are very well rounded offensively, with perhaps the only issue of note being OBP (Around the middle of the league), but then again, if you can hit you will do fine. They also lead the league in ERA and are tied for first in BAA. Even with injuries to guys like Floyd, Nady and so on, they should be able to manage. I like the additional of Orlando Hernandez, especially for the playoffs, but the age of their pitching staff scares me. Of course none of those old guys has ever done anything to make me think they will break down.
CONTENDER
Philadelphia Phillies
Really, it should be considered ridiculous for me to review my home town team, but I’m going to attempt anyways. The Phils having many issues surrounding their pitching staff, but namely the starters, as the Bullpen has been tops in the NL. Beyond Brett Myers (Who got back to form last night), they have no pitcher with an ERA below 4 and the Phils BAA ranks last in the NL. With the way the fielding has been as of late, this does not bode well. The Phils are also in the middle to lower portions of most major offensive categories except Home Runs (GO figure). This team is young and a few years away. As much as I want to say it, this is not the year.
PRETENDER
National League Central
Cincinnati Reds
What’s changed since last year. To be honest, I always thought the Reds fielded a good team, but they were always missing a piece. I think the pitching staff is still questionable. Bronson Arroyo is having a career year and he tends to get better in the second half, however he has never had an ERA below 4 in his career or for any one month period except July (He is a combined 16-8 during July, August in September). Plus, he’s even better come the post-season. Their Bullpen, namely David Weathers and Todd Coffey has looked stellar and current #2 on the staff, Aaron Harang has also pitched well, and is approaching 100Ks for the season. The negatives, the play in a very small park, doesn’t bode well for pitchers, but they can mash the ball with the best of them. Want a little odd piece of info, the highest paid player on the Reds is: Eric Milton with just over nine million. This division could be wide open.
CONTENDER
St. Louis Cardinals
Even without the best player (Who still leads the league in home runs and RBIs!) in the league, the Cardinals are still managing to maintain one of the better records in baseball, namely due to the play of Scott Rolen and Juan Encarnacion. Rolen is batting a cool .341 with 9 homers and 46 RBIs and is 7th in the National League in OBP. Jason Marquis (9) is among the NL leaders in wins and Chris Carpenter checks in with a cool 2.46 ERA and is averaging over 8Ks per 9 IP. This team is used to making he post-season and I doubt this year will be any different.
CONTENDER
Milwaukee Brewers
How can you count any team who’s entire nickname is based on my favorite beverage. Regardless, this young team seems geared up to be a powerhouse, in a few years. The Brew crew’s bats have been top notch ranking above average or at the top in most statistical categories. They are expected to have one of the better offensive infields in the league soon, but they’re pretty close right now. In fact, their infield average age is a little over 25 and when J.J. Hardy returns that will drop to a little above 24. On top of that, they have a great utility man in Bill Hall (Who’s currently playing SS). Chris Capuano is playing like the ace of the staff, posting 7 wins, a 3.3 ERA and a team leading 93 Ks. Unfortunetly, Doug Davis hasn’t been as effective as expected and Ben Sheets, due to injury, hasn’t seen much action. If all three of these guys can pick it up (Namely Sheets come back and Davis get better), and the rest of the staff can look a little sharper (Eveland and Bush have had moments), this team could contend, but they look awfully green.
PRETENDER
Houston Astros
Can you ever discount a club that just signed the best pitcher of the past 20 years? The short answer to that is no, but there are a lot of question marks. Can Roy Oswalt get back to form after his injury (He look good in his last start even though it was the cubs), can Roger Clemens get back to his sub 2 ERA form of last year, can Brad Lidge get back on the horse or is Albert Pujols still in his head, can the rest of the pitching staff hold it together (for God’s sake Taylor Buchholz look bad against the Kansas City Royals). Houston looks good on paper, but their offense ranks in the bottom half or third in almost every major statistical category. To that point, they also have one of the worst team ERAs in the NL. I know this team is close and maybe Clemens puts them on top of the wild card, but I’m not so sure.
PRETENDER
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks
If someone told you last year that the NL West was going to be the toughest division in baseball, you’d probably laugh. Not anymore! If there’s one way to describe the D-Backs, its scrappy. They have what looks like the league’s best pitcher, in Brandon Webb, but with the trade of El Duque, there’s not much after that and I can’t picture the D-Backs marching Russ Ortiz to the hill come game 3 of a series. Their lineup features a young infield and pretty damn good outfield. This HGH funk must have gotten to them as they’ve been icy cold since Jason Grimsley got fingered. And to round it out, if you’ve got Jorge Julio closing games, you might be in trouble.
PRETENDER
Colorado Rockies
Coors Field seems the like the typical place to ruin a pitcher, but not this year. They don’t have an ace or for that matter a solid starter of any kind, but they have plenty of above average pitchers, which seems to work pretty well up there. Plus you can never count out a team with Byung-Hyun Kim (Kidding!). They’ve also found their closer in Brian Fuentes. Meanwhile, Matt Holliday has just been a monster this year, leading the Rocks in HRs, RBIs, Rs and Average not to mention the fine play from Brad Hawpe. This team can certainly contend offensively, but do you think they can survive at Coors? I think its back to the drawing board until the Rockies can put together a fine ground ball staff, which they starting to.
PRETENDER
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers sure look like the real deal to make a push for October. Nomar Garciaparra is playing like the all-star he used to be, J.D. Drew is finally playing like the all-star he was supposed to be, and the additions of Kenny Lofton, Rafael Furcal, and Jeff Kent (Last year) have made this team complete. Their pitching staff has been very strong, namely Brad Penny who has gone 7-1 this year with a 2.49 ERA both of which are leading his team. I think the only thing that will hold this team back is injuries. If you guarantee me that everyone will stay relatively healthy for the rest of the season, I guarantee this team a post-season birth and a pretty darn good shot at the whole thing, but you can’t. The staff is experienced and playing well. This team does have some of the makings of a real champion.
CONTENDER
San Diego Padres
In a ever so quiet trade that shipped Adam Eaton & Akinori Otsuka out of San Diego and picked up Chris Young & Terrmel Sledge, the Padres seemed to have upgraded where they needed to. Sure the Texas Rangers added a bullpen arm that San Diego could have used, but the Pads got a very valuable addition to their staff, namely a solid #2 who has become an ace in the absence of a solid year from Jake Peavy. Young is 10th in the NL in ERA and 3rd in WHIP and BAA, suprising considering he was nothing more than a run of the mill starter in Texas, shows you what a change of scenery can do. And I haven’t even mentioned his two almost no-hitters. Moving on, don’t forget the resurgence of Dave Roberts and in the Young trade they also netting quiet and powerful first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Brian Giles is having another typical year and the Padres only play seven innings a game because of Scott Linebrink who is 6th in the NL in holds and Trevor Hoffman who is 5th in the NL in saves. If Jake Peavy can get back on track, this team has one of the most solid one two punches in the league and could possibly win a series.
CONTENDER
San Francisco Giants
Barry Who? The focus of this team is age. Their outfield is averaging an age of 40, with the youngest outfielder being Moises Alou, who is oft injured and is 39 (40 on July 3rd). When Barry Bonds and Alou don’t play Randy Winn (The Youngest regular outfielder at 32) has stepped in and played admirably and Mark Sweeney who has served the team well as a fifth outfielder, but is also aged, coming in at 36. So yes, the average age of the Giants top 5 outfielders is around 38. Really, the strength of this team is pitching. Ace, Jason Schmidt is having another great year and has had a rubber arm, leading the league in complete games and 4th in Innings pitched. While Matt Morris hasn’t played as well as he did last year, young guns Noah Lowry and Matt Cain have stepped in and played well. Still the production isn’t has solid anywhere and how much can you really depend on Lowry and Cain the produce. Cain is still basically a rookie and Lowry is still having a tough go of it as a sophomore. I don’t think this teams offense can pick it up when the pitching lets down.
PRETENDER
Well that’s it. I know you guys are going to pick this apart. Go for it. As we get closer to the break, I’ll pick through my contenders and pretenders for the fall classic.
Date
Tue 06/20/06, 11:28 am EST
