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Contender/Pretender June 2006 A.L. Edition

11
Vote

by user JuTMSY4

The question has come up especially as we approach the mid-season classic, who are the contenders and pretenders for the playoffs. Without true consideration to statistics (Which I admittedly detest for sports, but abuse constantly), this is my position on where some teams stand heading into the break. More importantly, I witnessed Steve Phillips pick the winners of each division a few weeks ago. Surprisingly, he picked the current leader in each. What can I say, the man deserved to be fired. Kansas City Royals need not apply, you’re a pretender before you started the season.

American League East

Toronto Blue Jays

As debated earlier today on AGM, Blue Jays and the Playoffs? In a word, no!, this team is still a few pieces short of being a legit contender. They do have an ace of the staff and what COULD be a great number two in A.J. Burnett but he’s got to stay healthy and he hasn’t done that. They also have some young arms in Gustavo Chacin and Ted Lilly, which remains to be seen. They do have what looks like 3 good outfields and a shutdown closer, not to mention a decent looking infield, hitting wise. I’m just not convinced. Prove to me that the staff can stay healthy and has a little more experience and I jump the fence, until then

PRETENDER

Boston Red Sox

Much like the Blue Jays, the Red Sox have an Ace (Curt Schilling) and a closer in young Jonathan Papelbon (I still think he’s a little young for those pressure closes, but he could very easily prove me wrong). Moreover, Josh Beckett has had his moments, and he’s also had some poor outings. The offense should never be an issue for this squad, boasting 4 (when healthy) very good outfielders and what looks like the best power hitting catcher in the league (or close to it). This team has the ability, they might be a pitcher short, but are still very close. Plus, they’ve been there before

CONTENDER

New York Yankees

The balance of this team hinges, almost entirely on health. If you tell me that Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield will come back in September in mid-season form, I’m listing them as a contender, no questions asked. But there are concerns. Mike Mussina has looked good up until late and Randy Johnson hasn’t until recently (He’s getting back to form, just relax), but they have issues in their rotation. Sometimes I’m really impressed sometimes I’m not. I wish I could go push on this, but I can’t

CONTENDER

American League Central

Detroit Tigers

Boy, Jim Leyland really gave these kids a kick in the pants. Things were really working and even when they cooled off, they still look pretty solid. Their pitching staff did look good, but besides Kenny Rogers can you really trust rookie Justin Verlander, Mike Maroth (Who’s hurt) and Jeremy Bonderman to get you through to the post season. I like Verlander, just not this year. Plus, I wouldn’t trust Todd Jones to close out the big ones

PRETENDER

Chicago White Sox

What is probably the most complete team in baseball, the Chicago White Sox, to me, look as good, but different than they did last year. Jon Garland hasn’t played up to par with what we expected, however, they’ve gotten great games from guys like Freddy Garcia and Jose Contreras. Moreover, the offense has been dominant, especially with a guy like Jim Thome in the heart of the order. You can argue with who will win the World Series, but this guys have to come up in that argument.

CONTENDER

American League West

Oakland Athletics

Good rule of thumb is, someone has to win this division. I don’t particularly like the Athletics, but they’ve done it before and have the advantage of some playoff experience. Their pitchers are different but the same, with the big three consisting of Barry Zito, Danny Haren and Rich Harden (He needs to get healthy]] along with some extras like Joe Blanton and Kirk Saarloos who have been serviceable. The lineup looks better, especially the way Nick Swisher has been playing. You got to think this team is playoff caliber again, even though their division is just plain terrible.

CONTENDER

Texas Rangers

I dare you, with a straight face, to name a Rangers starting pitcher past Kevin Millwood that you would trust in the post-season. Don’t even mention that slug, Vicente Padilla, who’s best statistic was how many beers he drank in a night. This team has major concerns around their staff, but few around the lineup. Guys like Hank Blalock and Brad Wilkerson are more than making up for the slow start for Mark Teixeira. Plus, this team is still searching for a closer since Francisco Cordero starting blowing up. If this team had one word written all over it, it would be:

PRETENDER

That's a wrap, N.L. Should come tomorrow.


Date

Mon 06/19/06, 12:25 pm EST

Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
Bleeding GreenVarsity
1261 days ago
Score 1+-
I still think that when it comes down to it, the Sox are a contender. Say what you wish about Beckett now, and it will all likely be true... But the guy is money in the postseason, until he proves otherwise he and Schilling may be the most fearsome, proven duo late in the season. Those guys, along with Papi, Manny and others shine in big spots late in the year.
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Bleeding GreenVarsity
1261 days ago
Score -1+-
Oh and about the A's... I have to see whether Barry Zito is still on the team at the trade deadline before I decide whether they're a contender or not.
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JuTMSY4Legend
1261 days ago
Score 1+-
Yeah I agree. Beckett could easily winn 200 games in his career...then again....he could not...
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Anonymous Fanatic #1
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
I don't think Billy will move Zito. I think that he is willing to let Zito walk and get back a draft pick in return.
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EnyboDiv-I Stud
1261 days ago
Score 1+-
200 games? He can't even pitch 200 innings.
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DNLLegend
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
Until the Tigers start to decline, I think you gotta call them contenders.
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JuTMSY4Legend
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
The decline is coming...Trust me, you won't see detroit come october...
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ChristofMVP
1261 days ago
Score -2+-
Yanks are not a contender with the current lineup. And the starting pitching staff is killing the bullpen. It will catch up to them before the season is over.
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ASwaffAll-American
1261 days ago
Score 1+-
With the current lineup? Even with the injuries, a lineup that includes Damon, Cano, Jeter, ARod, Giambi and Posada is one of the best in baseball. Then, they may get Matsui and Sheffield back. If there's anything about the Yankees you CAN'T knock, it's their lineup. I do agree about the starters, though. I can't believe how bad they've been. And you've seen how some of these guys have performed outside of New York. I have to chalk some of that up to coaching.
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JuTMSY4Legend
1261 days ago
Score 1+-
Gotta agree. Yanks lineup is still one of the best in baseball...
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ChristofMVP
1261 days ago
Score -3+-
What is the average age of the lineup. Yes, it has a lot of names. But the extra stress caused by injuries in June will haunt them come September.
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ASwaffAll-American
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
Average age? What does that matter, if they're prodcuing? The team doesn't just have names, they have the numbers. When they lose, they tend to lose high scoring games. Their problem is not their lineup. Seriously, give it up. You're only going to look silly trying to dis one of the best lineups in baseball.
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ASwaffAll-American
1261 days ago
Score 2+-
How are you gonna call the Tigers a pretender? They don't have a staff ace, but you give no reason for not trusting their starters and their closer beyond the fact that you don't. That's not gonna cut it, even in a short article like this. If you're going to call the team that has had the best record in baseball for the first two and a half months a pretender, you're going to have to back it with something more than that. Also, the Rangers aren't looking for a closer. They've had Akinori Otsuka closing games for them, and he's been phenomenal. He deserves to be an All Star. He has converted 13 out of his 15 save opportunities, and were it not for David Ortiz's three run homer to blow one of his saves week before last, he would be almost perfect in June. Aside from that outing, he has not allowed a run this month. Cordero is also doing well as a setup man. His ERA since becoming a setup man is below 3.00.
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JuTMSY4Legend
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
Easy. Name on thing any of those starters has actually done. Rookies are notorious for breaking down in the second half and how effective historically are bonderman and maroth...not very...
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ASwaffAll-American
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
By the way, Ted Lilly's not that young. He's 30.
Permalink | Reply
ASwaffAll-American
1261 days ago
Score -1+-
History is history, and you can't look at what some rookies do and hold it against other young players. Some rookies have gone into the post season and done magnificently. Andruw Jones is a good example.
Permalink | Reply
Anonymous Fanatic #2
1261 days ago
Score -1+-
And you can't base everything on current stats. People do cool off and get better. Some players have a good year or half and then fall off. There's no guarantee. I have no reason to believe the tigers will continue to be good. Oakland does this every year. Look at cleveland...i think they might be a better team this year than last (minus millwood). I'll eat my words if they're in the playoffs, but i'm not to worried...
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ASwaffAll-American
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
Yeah, people cool off. But my point is that you can't say you expect this year's Tigers young players to cool off just because they're young and haven't had the CHANCE to prove themselves. You should give some observation you've made about the players themselves that leads you to believe they'll cool off. The fact that they're too young to have a chance to prove themselves isn't sufficient to realistically say they're not for real.
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Anonymous Fanatic #2
1261 days ago
Score 1+-
Sounds fair. In starts where verlander has played teams above (CWS, NNY, OAK, TEX) .500 he is 2-3 with a 6.61 ERA. That shows me that his stats may be a little inflated. Mike Maroth, 45-60, 4.75 career. Maroth is a collective 12-13 during august and sept, but his ERA hovers around 5, can the lineup produce? Jeremy bonderman is 37-49, 4.84 ERA career he has never had an ERA below 4 and is notoriously bad in august (4-12 5.87 ERA) however he gets a little better in september, if he makes it there (4-5, 4.19 ERA).
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JuTMSY4Legend
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
That's mine !
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PeanMajor Leaguer
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
mike maroth is out until august
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ASwaffAll-American
1260 days ago
Score 0+-
Okay, you've got stats. I can dig that. That's all I wanted. You have some real proof for your statement. I wasn't saying you were wrong, I was just saying that the premise that they would fall apart simply based on past experience with OTHER players was a false premise.
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JuTMSY4Legend
1261 days ago
Score 0+-
Above
Permalink | Reply
ASwaffAll-American
1260 days ago
Score 0+-
Seriously, is someone giving me minus comments just out of spite? I minus comment for pointing out that Ted Lilly isn't young? Come on!
Permalink | Reply
JuTMSY4Legend
1260 days ago
Score 0+-
No Aswaff, I've felt the burn as well, I'm not sure what's going on...
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ASwaffAll-American
1260 days ago
Score 0+-
Glad it's not just me. I don't wanna feel like I'm making myself a victim here. I just like to know why I'm getting minuses. It's kind of annoying to get a minus that seems to just be there for no reason at all.
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