Champions League Predictions for 10/3/07
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by Foolsgold
Liverpool 2, Marseilles 1
Anfield gives the Reds a huge advantage even with former players Djibril Cisse and Bolo Zenden on the opposing Marseille side. The French side should be better rested, but ten days is almost too long and it's not as if Liverpool played just two days ago. Four days should be adequate rest for the Reds especially since they'll infuse some players like Peter Crouch, Ryan Babel, and Steve Finnan into the line-up, none of which played on Saturday. The referee will be Konrad Plautz, who appears to favor home teams and shows a slight aversion to French sides. He has refereed Liverpool three times with the Reds holding a 2-0-1 record though none of those matches were at Anfield. For European matches in England overall, the home-side is undefeated, 2-2-0, when he's in charge. Outside of Lyon home ties, Plautz displays an alarming 0-0-5 European record involving French sides, including two France Internationals. He was most recently the ref for Scotland's miracle upset of France in Paris, 1-0. Word out of the Marseille camp is that Cisse is not fully fit and could possibly sit the match out. This could just be a ploy by Gerets, but I don't think it matters if the striker plays or not.
Beşiktaş 1, FC Porto 0
Porto are without a doubt the more talented side here, the Turkish club is playing at home and will be boosted by the returns of Turkish International keeper Rüştü Reçber and French defensive midfielder Édouard Cissé. The former had been out with a knee injury while the latter was serving suspension. The referee for the match is the relatively inexperienced Pieter Vink, who has only one CL match to record. He has been in charge of three international matches involving Portugal, all of which the Portuguese won. Overall though he tends to show a home bias. Ultimately I think unfamiliarity of BJK İnönü Stadium, the Turk's side stadium, combined with major Beşiktaş players being fit and fresh as well as a homer ref should be too much for Porto to overcome.
Valencia 2, Chelsea 2
This is easily the most difficult fixture to guess so far. On the one hand you have Valencia at Estadio Mestalla, a place where, until these two met there last year Los Che had only conceded two goals to an English side once. Not to mention that their keeper for life, Santiago Cañizares, is back from injury and their €20m summer acquisition, Serbian striker Nikola Žigić, could very well make his debut. Then you have the infinite conundrum that is Chelsea. Will Essien and/or Lampard play? What about John Terry? Did Drogba intentionally throw the match versus Fulham by getting two yellows? The answers to such questions we won't know until kick-off time, but there is one thing we do know, Petr Cech will play and with him in the net, only spectacular goals tend to get through. The ref for the match is Italian Roberto Rosetti who tends to show leniency towards the visiting side. He has also never been in charge of a Valencia match though Chelsea is 1-0 with him in black. Overall though, neither country has had a losing side with him at the helm in Champions League play, I look for that to continue.
Rosenborg 1, Schalke 1
I don't necessarily believe that Schalke is that much more talented than Rosenborg. The Norwegian side will have the home field advantage and surprisingly a more experienced Champions League side as Roar Strand and Christer Basma together have played more games in the tournament than nearly the whole Schalke side combined. The ref, Grzegorz Gilewski from Poland, appears to show no bias toward German, Norwegian, home, nor visiting sides, so I don't expect many questionable calls. Schalke will be without play-maker Hamil Altintop due to injury while Rosenborg appears to have no major injuries. One thing that might come into play, especially with Rosenborg's senior players, is the fact that they just played on Sunday, while Schalke had an extra couple of days of rest. If Rosenborg boss Knut Tørum had given the older players in his squad that match off, I would definitely be picking the Norwegian side to win here.
Lazio 2, Real Madrid 1
Lazio chief Delio Rossi wants to win this one pretty bad. So much so that he rested key players captain Zauri, Ledesma, Stefano Mauri, Goran Pandev, and keeper Ballotta for their Sunday match with Reggina. Schuster has the advantage of a large, talented roster to rotate, but still he'll probably have to use players that played Sunday including Fabio Cannavaro, the only Italian on the squad. It is unclear whether Ruud Van Nistelrooy will be able to return from injury, but I don't expect that to be a major factor either way. The ref for the match is Belgian veteran Frank De Bleeckere, who shows to be quite fair though does give a slight advantage to the home side. All-in-all he tends to allow the better team to win and stays out of the match. Despite their record, Real Madrid has not played well of late and with Lazio pumped and fit for this match, I can definitely see the home-side coming away with the three points.
Werder Bremen 3, Olympiacos 1
Considering Olympiacos have not won a Champions League away match in their last 31 tries and Bremen is seemingly in top form, I can't see any outside factors affecting the outcome of this one. Even without Torsten Frings and Tim Borowski, Werder thrashed Bundesliga opponent DSC Arminia Bielefeld, 8-1, on Saturday. Neither German International is expected to be fit for this match. What's even more impressive is that Boubacar Sanogo had a slight cold in that match yet still managed a brace and an assist. The official, Claus Bo Laursen, is quite clinical, efficient, and realtively fair in his match calling, though home sides rarely lose when he's at the helm. Especially when they are clearly the better side going into the match. It will be a miracle if Olympiacos win this one.
Celtic 1, AC Milan 2
I'm really up in arms about this one. The homefield advantage should be in full effect for Celtic as the weather looks to be typically Scottish and they do have some of the greatest fans in the world. Also in the Glasgow side's favor is they've had an extra day's rest. AC Milan, on the other hand, have the more talented, experienced side, and most importantly, Markus Merk is the referee. The German dentist appears to be an AC Milan fan, as the Italian side has never lost with him as the head official. Furthermore, Scottish sides are 2-2-4 with him refereeing. Injuries will also play a part as Vennegoor of Hesselink and Nakamura probably won't play for Celtic. Actually, if Nakamura does play, Celtic probably have less of a chance of winning, as he tends to not play well against Italian sides. It's pretty sad that UEFA chose Merk as the referee for this match, especially since the Scottish side will be erecting a statue of Celtic Legend Johnny Johnstone prior to the match.
Benfica 2, Shakhtar 1
Despite Mircea Lucescu resting major players Lucarelli, Nery Castillo and Ilsinho for Shakhtar's Ukrainian Premier League tie with FC Metalurh Zaporizhya on Saturday, I still can't see Shakhtar walking away from this one with even a point. The ref, German Wolfgang Stark, has never officiated a Portuguese win, but then again, he's never officiated in Portugal. He tends to be a fair ref and more talented home sides tend to win with him at the helm. Benfica may not be as good a squad as in the past, but they should be good enough to get the win here. There pace and quickness probably will be too much for the Ukrainian side to handle.
Originally posted here
