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RollingWave

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Why k/9 is a flawed stat

by RollingWave
created March 27, 2008, last edited April 02, 2009
20
Vote

Thanks to Bill James, we come to realize the importance of the strikeout for pitchers, and the stat-minded fans keep close eye on every pitcher's strikeout rate. one of the stats people often like to cite or keep an eye on is K/9, or strikeout per 9 inning. while like OBP a percentage value helps to put things into better perspective. K/9 is a flawed way to look at a pitcher's true strike out ability.

Why? because K/9 measures how many people you strike out per 27 batters retried. but it doesn't take into account something obvious... that during that 27 out few pitchers face the same amount of batters!

It doesn't take a geniues to understand the obvious problem. if a guy struck out 9 while retiring 27 guys but walked 10, gave up 6 runs and 12 hit. that's obviously NOT the same strikeout ability as a pitcher who also struck out 9 . but only allowed 1 walk 8 hit and 3 runs during the process. if no DP or base running outs or men left on were involved. the former pitch faced 55 batters for those 9 strikeouts. while the later faced just 36. the difference is huge. and it's a much better measurement of one's true strikeout ability to use batters faced to corerlate with strikeouts. and shed better light onto the TRUE ability of pitchers to whiff batters.

I really suggest that many of the big stats site start replacing K/9 with K/PA . which is probably a bit more complicated to understand but much more representative of a pitcher's true ability. in the current model. guys who give up more runners actually look better while guys who get people out take hits. particularly those that could induce a lot of a DPs and such. right now if a guy gets knocked around and need to face 60 hitters on average to record 27 out but record 9 Ks while doing so. he has a K/9 of 9 and is considered a strong strike out guy. while a guy who faced only 30 guys but only got 5 K in the process has a K/9 of 5 is considered a low strikeout guy. but in reality the later is probably the better strikeout pitcher.




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Alex HolowczakHall of Famer
597 days ago
Score 5+-
k/9 - the dog stat. :)
Permalink | Reply
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
597 days ago
Score 4+-
Jeez - more overly complicated stats? :-) I liked it better during the 70s & 80s when all people cared about was wins, ERA and strikeouts. Much easier to take that in.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
597 days ago
Score 2+-
Good article... I linked it over at Baseball Fever, we'll see what the sabermetrics crowd thinks. :)
Permalink | Reply
Niteowl049AAA-er
597 days ago
Score 2+-
The ESPN game score is a good way to tell how good a game a pitcher really pitches since it adds points for strikeouts and takes away points for walks.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
597 days ago
Score 0+-
Invented by...


Bill James.
Permalink
Too Manny StilesVarsity Captain
597 days ago
Score 3+-
I thought we all agreed that as far as stats go a good NERD was all we needed... Personally, I'll continue to stick with O!F...
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KelsdadAll-Star
596 days ago
Score 2+-
Couldn't agree more. Relief pitchers with 12 K/9 gives a false sense of superiority because they don't worry about pitch counts or stamina, they just go out and gas for an inning. The more they pitch during a game, the more their ratio would come down. Nice theory, RollingWave.
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EnyboDiv-I Stud
596 days ago
Score 2+-
Interesting, I never thought of it that way. That must be why I always lose in fantasy.
Permalink | Reply
PeanMajor Leaguer
596 days ago
Score 3+-
actually, its because I'm in your league
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
596 days ago
Score 5+-
Image:Pean_LOLCAT.jpg
Permalink
PeanMajor Leaguer
596 days ago
Score 2+-
hahah, davis FTW
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
596 days ago
Score 6+-
USPatriot made a great point over at B-F, in that K/9 also rewards pitchers too much for giving up contact, when the whole point of "K ability" (or whatever we're trying to measure here) is to avoid contact (miss bats) as much as possible. A guy could give up many hits and still maintain his K/9 as long as he wasn't getting outs in play to go along with them, whereas K/PA sees all contact -- OIP or hits -- as a failure, which is a truer measure of strikeout pitching. The more I think about your theory, the more I like it...
Permalink | Reply
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
596 days ago
Score 1+-
I couldn't agree more. ++++++++++++++++
Permalink
Too Manny StilesVarsity Captain
596 days ago
Score 0+-
D21Dub - remember the guy that said strikeouts were overrated in this go-'round? Jeez, time flies by!
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
596 days ago
Score 1+-
Strikeouts aren't overrated per se, it's just that the conventional "strikeout rate" (K/9) is flawed. Strikeouts are a proxy for good stuff and power pitching skills -- as a general principle, less contact = better stuff. But you can't be walking guys all over the place either, so for my money K/BB is the best "easy-to-calculate" pitching stat out there. Command and stuff in one number, and it predicts future ERA better than anything else as well.
Permalink
Too Manny StilesVarsity Captain
596 days ago
Score 3+-
I just maintain that strikeouts are not efficient outs. They simply take at least 2 too many pitches to make an out... Of course, I'm a Rays fan - they led the AL in Strikeouts on BOTH sides last year - pitching and hitting!!!
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
596 days ago
Score 1+-
If you're talking in terms of pitch conservation, strikeouts are probably more efficient. It's true that one strikeout takes at least 3 pitches, and usually more; and a groundout can take only 1 or 2 pitches. However, when you consider the fact that a strikeout is an out essentially every time (with the exception of passed balls on the 3rd strike and the runner getting to first), and that balls that are put into play are not always converted into outs, strikeouts emerge as the more efficient.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
596 days ago
Score 0+-
On a roll today, Manny, right twice in the same thread. Strikeouts are not efficient outs, although from a pitching standpoint can be depending on situation. Tie game, ninth inning, need a strikeout, double play to get out of the inning, a ball in play loses the game. Those scenarios are few and far between, however. From an offensive standpoint, there is no such thing as an efficient strikeout.
Permalink
Sj-hypocycloidAll-American
596 days ago
Score 1+-
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
Permalink
RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
596 days ago
Score 0+-
You make several very good points that I had never really thought about. K/9 really doesn't measure anything important. As Kelsdad mentioned, relievers have bloated K/9, but when the hell do they pitch 9 innings? And there are plenty of guys who rack up Ks, but also allow lots of hits and walks. K/PA sounds like a good stat. I like K/BB, as well. Maybe we can go nuts and do a (K/9)/WHIP.
Permalink | Reply
Tyrone BriggsHall of Famer
596 days ago
Score 0+-
There is only one stat that matters and that is which team wins the last frigging baseball game at the end of the year. Everything else is just a damn useless statistic used by agents to whore their clients.
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RawbeezeitzMajor Leaguer
596 days ago
Score 2+-
I'd say runs scored and runs allowed are important stats. They kind of determine the winners of games, which lead to that final game, which is also determined by runs scored and runs allowed.
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
596 days ago
Score 3+-
Career K/9IP

Clemens: 8.55, Maddux 6.12

Career BB/K

Clemens: 2.95, Maddux 3.38

If Maddux retired today, he would join Ferguson Jenkins as the only two pitchers in history with 3000 K's and fewer than 1000 walks. Pretty damn amazing stat if you ask me.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
596 days ago
Score 2+-
Maddux is amazing, even at 42(!) years old he's still a joy to watch pitch.
Permalink
Too Manny StilesVarsity Captain
596 days ago
Score 0+-
He's not a pitcher. He's a surgeon!
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
596 days ago
Score 2+-
A couple weeks ago I went out and saw him against the Rangers. Got right up behind the bullpen and watched his pre-game warm-ups. He did things in his routine I've never seen another pitcher do, ever. It was pure magic, one of those experiences you'll remember for life. It was genius.
Permalink
Tyrone BriggsHall of Famer
596 days ago
Score -2+-
Visiting teams at Wrigley used to have a great time against Maddux (second stint) in the first 3 innings as well. Bombs away.
Permalink | Reply
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Categories: Opinions | Opinions by User RollingWave | March 27, 2008 | March 2008 | MLB Opinions

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