MLB Over/Under Predictions: National League

From: The Sports Point

Will the Diamondbacks and Rockies meet expectations this year after far exceeding them last season? Can the Cardinals return to their World Series form of '06 after a disappointing '07? Will the National League have a team that tops 90 wins, unlike last year? These are some of the questions that we pondered as we came up with our top 5 National League over/under predictions for the upcoming season.

Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 87.5

• No hitters in this lineup scare anyone and none of their younger players will sneak up on anyone this year.
• Eric Byrnes will never have another year like he did last year, a year in which he was a legit MVP candidate.
• Not enough is being made of the fact that besides acquiring Chad Qualls in a trade in which the D-Backs gave up the franchise saves leader, Jose Valverde, the D-Backs have done nothing to improve their bullpen, the biggest part of their success last year.
• To much is being made of the acquisition of SP Dan Haren and thus it made their o/u number inflated. Take a look at their roster besides Haren and Webb, do you see an elite pitcher or position player on the whole roster?
• They are in an extremely competitive division, all of these teams will not end up with 85 plus wins. The D-Backs will slide the furthest.

Cincinnati Reds UNDER 77

• This team depends way to much on Ken Griffey Jr. Any injury to him pretty much ruins their whole season, an injury which unfortunately is inevitable.
• Aaron Harang might have had the best season last year for a pitcher given his stats and the team he was on last year and still the team only won 72 games.
• We expect every team in the NL Central to be improved from last year, except for the Reds. They will take the brunt of these teams improving and finish in last place.
• The Reds are the worst type of team to root for. They have older overpriced veterans and a lot of young players who are all future role players, neither type of player give fans hope for the future. Can you say dead end?

Colorado Rockies OVER 83

• Their young lineup is legit and will only get better in '08. Last year the baseball world was introduced to stars like Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Garrett Atkins. This year that group will take the Rockies to an even higher level.
• During the course of their improbable run to the World Series last year the Rockies realized their bullpen was a huge factor in their success. They locked up their closer Manny Corpas who is an emerging star and signed Luis Vizcaino who joins Brian Fuentes to form a formidable 7th and 8th inning bridge.
• Todd Helton's veteran leadership is priceless and will keep this young group focused.
• 83 is way to low of a number for a team that is coming off of a National League pennant. It is perplexing they would have such a low number especially given they lost zero key players in the off-season. Again, people are putting the Dodgers and D-Backs at a higher number then the Rockies and Padres, which we think is a mistake.

St. Louis Cardinals OVER 76.5

• Everything went wrong for the Cardinals last year and they still won 78 games.
• LaRussa is too good of a manager to have a team go under .500 two seasons in a row.
• Converted from the bullpen last year and made starting pitchers, Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright will have better seasons the second time around as starters.
• The Cards play in one of the worst divisions in baseball and should be .500 based on that fact alone given the relative quality of their roster.

Washington Nationals OVER 71.5

• With the roster Manny Acta had to work with last year he should have been manager of the year given the fact that he guided that team to 73 wins.
• The Nationals have quietly stock piled a number of young, good position players and starting pitchers.
• Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Paul LoDuca on the same roster scares us but we think they can weather the storm and win 72 games.
• They are playing in a new stadium! That is good for 5 extra wins right there, GO Nats!

[O/U numbers from betcris.com ]

Tmil42AAA-er

616 days ago

Score 2

Dude...I disagree with all of these (except for the Cardinals) so much I don't know where to start.

Valverde had a career year last year, which could be an aberration. Qualls had the worst year of his career yet still managed to post a 1.319 WHIP. Don't forget that Qualls pitched 20 more innings than Valverde last year, either (and that saves are unbelievably overrated). Orlando Hudson's one of the best second basemen in baseball, Justin Upton is one of the most talented young players in baseball, and if Micah Owings is pitching, then you've got a very feared hitter. Asking for more than 2 elite pitchers on a staff? When was the last time that happened? Glavine-Smoltz-Maddux?

The Reds depend more on Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips than they do on Junior. Harang had his second consecutive above-average season, but he can only start every fifth day. The Reds have a lot of older, overpriced players? Besides Griffey, that's not true at all. Younger players with futures as role players? You can double-check with this guy, but unless I'm mistaken, the Reds have one of the top-5 farm systems in the majors. Homer Bailey and Joey Votto are future stars and both are going to have big effects on the Reds in 2008.

Holliday is a good hitter, but he's not as good as his overall numbers suggest (call it the Dante Bichette effect) and it was laughable that he finished 2nd in last year's MVP race. Atkins was on the trade block for most of the offseason to make room for Ian Stewart. Vizcaino was signed to replace LaTroy Hawkins, who was better than Vizcaino despite pitching in Coors. They would have been better off with Hawkins.

Washington moving into a new park will help their offense, no doubt, considering how much of a pitcher's park RFK was. However, the Nationals have no pitching to speak of and the move to a more neutral park will hurt them. The Pirates finished 62-100 in 2001 when PNC Park opened, 7 wins fewer than in 2000. The Cardinals finished 17 games worse in 2006 than in 2005 despite opening the third Busch Stadium at the outset of 2006.

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Falcon02520Legend

616 days ago

Score 1

The Reds are going to be good sooner or later because Homer Bailey will be in the starting rotation again this season, Jay Bruce is the number one hitting prospect in the country, and Joey Votto is very solid himself. Brandon Phillips may or may not be for real yet (he has no disipline and a bad batters eye), but the Reds have some talent...

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Tmil42AAA-er

616 days ago

Score 2

Oh man, I can't believe I forgot to put Bruce in there. I swear I meant to. Now I just feel inadequate.

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Falcon02520Legend

616 days ago

Score 1

The plan for Atkins is to move him over to first base and unload Helton to make room for Stewart. The Rockies would rather hold onto Atkins than Todd. But you are dead on when it comes to Holiday. Overall, good points Tmil, and I'm pulling a Yakob "Ya, I Agree"

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Tmil42AAA-er

616 days ago

Score 1

Thanks Falcon. I hadn't heard about Atkins moving to first. From what I've heard, they've tried to convert Stewart to second (and it wasn't going well). Of course, that was in November, so they've probably already given up on that.

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Falcon02520Legend

616 days ago

Score 1

Yeah, it went, well... very badly. Stewart is tailor made for third, Atkins is suited well for either first or third, so naturally he is the one who they will move. Helton's contract is too large to hold onto (even though he is a free agent at the end of this year, I believe), the Rockies will look to move him as soon as a reasonable offer surfaces.

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Tmil42AAA-er

616 days ago

Score 0

At this point, Helton's contract is so prohibitive (he's still got 4 years left for a total of $68.9 million with a team option for the 5th year at $23) that it's going to be tough to find a taker. I mean, the Red Sox were interested last year, but they're not going to want him after they won the World Series with Kevin Youkilis at first base. That 9-year contract isn't looking so hot right about now. Too bad Isiah Thomas isn't an MLB GM.

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Bobbyjim45Draft Pick

616 days ago

Score 0

I think you are mostly going by what past teams have looked like in Cincy. They actually seem to have a good mix of vets and young guys. Once those guys develop, I think this could be a playoff team down the road, and I think they'll get over 77 this year.

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TheSportsPointWaterboy

616 days ago

Score 0

that prediction was more based on the fact that the reds will be the 4th best team in their division. It is very unlikely that a 4th place team will have a .500 record.

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TheSportsPointWaterboy

616 days ago

Score 0

Some of what you guys are saying makes absolute sense and to be honest you guys broke me down pretty good. I guess at the end of the season we will see who is right. Thats the great part about baseball the cream usually rises.

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Tmil42AAA-er

616 days ago

Score 0

Trust me, we're not trying to be rude about these. I think some of your predictions are spot-on (Byrnes' 2007 was definitely his career high, and Wainwright will be very very good in 2008). I guess I just like for people to back up their predictions with a lot of statistical support.

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TheSportsPointWaterboy

616 days ago

Score 1

I like when my opinions are challenged it makes me a better writer in the long run. That's why I like this site. Go Mets!

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