2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Outfield/DH
| 8
|
by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
In five days, the Halls of Cooperstown may include additional plaques, as writers will vote on the 2007 Class. I will evaluate each eligible player in the days leading up to the results. There are thirteen candidates at outfield and/or DH: Tony Gwynn, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Albert Belle, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Eric Davis, Dante Bichette, Jay Buhner, Paul O'Neill, Devon White, Jose Canseco, and Harold Baines.
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: First Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Third Base |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Shortstop |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Outfield/DH |
| 2007 MLB HOF Ballot: Pitchers (and Wrap-up) |
This article will evaluate players similar to this previous article. Also, check out Handicapping the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for another perspective of this year's ballot.
JAWS
First, each player will be evaluated by their JAWS score, which was created by Jay Jaffe at BaseballProspectus.com. The JAWS score uses the WARP(wins above replacement player) stat by adding the player's seven best seasons and their career WARP total, then dividing by two([PEAK + Career]/2).
Tony Gwynn
Career: 124.3 Peak: 68.4 JAWS: 96.3
1994, 1986, and 1984 were all seasons worthy of a Hall-of-Fame player, but 1987 was hands-down the best of Gwynn's career. Gwynn posted a ridiculous .447 OBP and socred a career-best 119 runs. Gwynn remained a valuable player well into his late-30's.
Andre Dawson
Career: 109.5 Peak: 58.4 JAWS: 83.9
Dawson really only had one Hall-of-Fame season, 1981, and a couple borderline ones in 1980 and 1982. Outside of these three seasons, Dawson had a handful of All-Star caliber years and was an asset through 37-years-old.
Albert Belle
Career: 90.0 Peak: 74.7 JAWS: 82.3
Belle has the highest Peak score on this list, thanks to five Hall-of-Fame seasons, and arguably six with his 1999 performance. In other words, Six of Belle's ten full seasons were indicative of a Hall-of-Fame player. Belle may have been below-average in the field, but his bat made this irrelevant.
Paul O'Neill
Career: 98.6 Peak: 61.7 JAWS: 80.1
O'Neiil had one truly amazing season (199]), a couple great years (1997 and 1998), a couple solid, but not quite great seasons (1991 and 1996), and played above average until his last season. It was a shame 1994 was shortened by the strike. O'Neill boasted a .460 OBP, .603 SLG, and 83 RBIs in only 103 games.
Dale Murphy
Career: 91.6 Peak: 67.1 JAWS: 79.3
Murphy peaked from 1982 until 1987, recording three Hall-of-Fame type seasons and two more that were arguably so. Unfortunately, he only had one great season outside of this peak, and more often than not was below average. He did not belong in the majors by the age of 36, yet he still managed to suck 104 at bats out of the Phillies and Rockies in 1992 and 1993.
Harold Baines
Career: 102.4 Peak: 49.1 JAWS: 75.7
Not once did Baines have a season worthy of placing him in Cooperstown. He hung around three years too many after hitting 40-years-old. Baines was a strong defensive rightfielder, but the White Sox turned him into a DH in 1987, at the age of 28, for good.
Jim Rice
Career: 89.2 Peak: 58.2 JAWS: 73.7
Jim Rice was a below-average fielder with a consistent bat that never fell below average in his career, not counting his final year, which he only played in 56 games. 1978 was his best, and only truly great season. Rice faded early, at the age of 34, but hung around for a couple more years as an average player.
Jose Canseco
Career: 87.8 Peak: 54.0 JAWS: 70.9
Canseco had an all-time great season in 1988, and came close only one more time in his career to this greatness (1991). In 1988, Canseco had a line of .307/.391/.569, drove in 124, scored 120, hit 42 HRs and stole 40 bases. Not to mention, this was one of the few years Canseco contributed in the field.
Dave Parker
Career: 86.3 Peak: 54.8 JAWS: 70.5
Parker had finished his peak years by the age of 28, when most players are just beginning theirs'. Parker's best year with the bat came in 1978, as he hit 74 extra base hits and posted a .394 OBP, while driving in and scoring over 100 runs. Defensively, he was well below average, spending most of his time in right field.
Devon White
Career: 79.2 Peak: 51.0 JAWS: 65.1
White was not much more than an average bat for most his career, but played impressive defensive in center field. 1991 and 1993 were the only seasons in which his offense played up to the level of his defense. White, with a career .319 OBP, jumped his OBP up into the .340's in these two seasons. As well, he scored over 110 runs, over 40 doubles, and stole over 30 bases in each of these two years. White provided some value to his teams throughout his career, but probably could have hung up the spikes after 1998 and not lost anything from his career.
Eric Davis
Career: 72.0 Peak: 53 JAWS: 62.5
In 1987, Davis looked like a Hall-of-Famer. Any year other than '87, Davis was a borderline All-Star at best. Davis was a strong basestealer, swiping 349 bases and only getting caught 66 times.
Jay Buhner
Career: 64.6 Peak: 48.5 JAWS: 56.5
Not once did Buhner play like a Hall-of-Famer. His defense was below-average and could more accurately be described as weak later in his career. Buhner had a few seasons worthy of being an All-Star, but none were Cooperstown material.
Dante Bichette
Career: 53.7 Peak: 36.0 JAWS: 44.8
Bichette never came close to Hall-of-Fame level, and really never played well enough to justify an All-Star selection. His RBI totals of 141, 133, 122, and 118 should be taken with a grain of salt, as he was playing in Coors Field. Bichette was nothing more than an average player in most of his years.
Hall of Fame Scores
Black Ink measures the number of times a player led the league in a category. Gray Ink measures a player's frequency in the top ten. HOF Standards provides a value to a player's career. HOF Monitor measures how likely it is that player will be voted in.
Further explanations can be found here: Baseball Reference explanation
Tony Gwynn
Black Ink: 57
Gray Ink: 155
HOF Standards: 53.9
HOF Monitor: 277.5
Gwynn won eight batting titles, but never won an MVP. His best MVP finish was third place. All of his above scores are easily Hall-of-Fame caliber.
Andre Dawson
Black Ink: 11
Gray Ink: 164
HOF Standards: 43.7
HOF Monitor: 118.0
Dawson won the MVP in 1987, while also leading the league in home runs and hits the same year. He also finished runner-up for the MVP twice.
Albert Belle
Black Ink: 28
Gray Ink: 137
HOF Standards: 36.1
HOF Monitor: 134.5
Belle finished runner-up in MVP voting in 1995 and third place in 1994 and 1996. He led the league with 50 home runs in 1995 and led the league in RBIs three times.
Paul O'Neill
Black Ink: 4
Gray Ink: 45
HOF Standards: 36.9
HOF Monitor: 70.5
O'Neill won a batting title in 1994, but never led the league in any other categories. His best MVP finish was fifth in 1994, and he never finished in the Top 10 in any other season.
Dale Murphy
Black Ink: 31
Gray Ink: 147
HOF Standards: 34.3
HOF Monitor: 115.5
Murphy won back-to-back MVPs in 1982 and 1983, the same two years he led the league in RBIs. Murphy led the league in home runs the next two seasons, hitting 36 in 1984 and 37 in 1985.
Harold Baines
Black Ink: 3
Gray Ink: 40
HOF Standards: 43.5
HOF Monitor: 66.5
The only time Baines led a category was 1984, when he led the league with a .541 SLG. Only once did Baines finish in the Top 10 in MVP voting, with a ninth place finish in 1985.
Jim Rice
Black Ink: 33
Gray Ink: 176
HOF Standards: 42.9
HOF Monitor: 146.5
Rice led the league in home runs three times and RBIs twice, among other categories. In 1978, Rice won the MVP. Five other times, Rice finished in the Top 5 in MVP voting.
Jose Canseco
Black Ink: 15
Gray Ink: 93
HOF Standards: 38.1
HOF Monitor: 103.0
Canseco won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1986, then followed up two years later with an MVP. Only one other time did Canseco finish in the Top 5 in MVP voting (1991). Twice Canseco led the league in home runs and once in RBIs.
Dave Parker
Black Ink: 26
Gray Ink: 145
HOF Standards: 41.1
HOF Monitor: 125.5
In 1978, Parker won the MVP; he also finished in the Top 5 on four other occasions. Parker won the batting title in back-to-back years.
Devon White
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 41
HOF Standards: 21.3
HOF Monitor: 34.5
White made the MVP voting in only one season, with a sixteenth place finish in 1991. He was a three-time All-Star, but never led the league in any categories.
Eric Davis
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 61
HOF Standards: 26.8
HOF Monitor: 27.5
Davis never led the league in any categories, but did grace the Top 10 in MVP voting twice, both ninth place finishes. Davis ranks thirteenth all-time in the Power/Speed Number.
Jay Buhner
Black Ink: 0
Gray Ink: 31
HOF Standards: 25.8
HOF Monitor: 34.5
Buhner's only league-leading statistic was strikeouts, twice. He did not fair well in the MVP voting either for a Hall-of-Fame candidate, with one Top 5 finish.
Dante Bichette
Black Ink: 19
Gray Ink: 81
HOF Standards: 30.5
HOF Monitor: 82.0
Bichette led the league in several categories in 1995, including home runs, RBI, extra-base hits, hits, and total bases. His only notable MVP finish was runner-up to Barry Larkin in 1995.
Verdict
Tony Gwynn: In: One of two no-brainer picks for 2007, along with Ripken.
Andre Dawson: Out: Has a solid case, but his peak was not impressive enough to warrant a vote.
Albert Belle: In: The voters will never put him in, but his bat was truly one of the all-time greats during his prime. If not for a shortened career, his totals would have easily placed him in Cooperstown.
Paul O'Neill: Out: 1994 is the only leg he has to stand on for consideration. That is not good enough.
Dale Murphy: Out: He has become a popular pick, thanks to two MVPs, but he was literally useless outside of his peak years. Murphy is a borderline Hall-of-Famer whose inclusion in Cooperstown, while not necessary, would not be a travesty.
Harold Baines: Out: Baines was a good player who played forever, but no one should mistake him for a Hall-of-Famer.
Jim Rice: Out: Like Murphy, Rice has garnered much support, with his ability to "strike fear" as the main reason to honor him with a plaque. Rice was a good, rarely great, hitter with an average glove. Hall of Fame? I think not.
Jose Canseco: Out: Canseco appeared to be on his way to the Hall-of-Fame in 1991. Those hopes abruptly came to an end starting in '92. Canseco was nothing but a flash in the pan in the late '80's.
Dave Parker: Out: Outside of 1977, Parker's candidacy is laughable.
Devon White: Out: See above, but insert "1991" for "1977" and "White" for "Parker".
Eric Davis: Out: See above, but insert "1987" for "1991" and "Davis" for "White".
Jay Buhner: Out: Voters should just chuckle and move on when they get to Buhner's name on the ballot.
Dante Bichette: Out: See Jay Buhner
