Winter Meetings Preview
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This is my favorite time of year: for a person who updates rosters on his video games like crazy, all of these potential moves make me salivate (sorry for the gross image). I’m not just talking about the Twins. There are many free agents that could go anywhere and it’s just fun to watch. Constant updates from Peter Gammons, Steve Phillips and Buster Olney highlight my nights.
This is a season that the Twins though are even more involved. I assume every SportsCenter 30 @ 30 to feature an update on Johan Santana. Today on the radio Mark Rosen didn’t hesitate when he said “next week when the Twins trade Johan Santana.”
Lets look at our holes and who could fill them:
3B: Free Agents: Mike Lamb (HOU), Corey Koskie (MIL), Tony Batista (WAS)
Trades: Scott Rolen (STL), Brandon Wood (LAA), Andy LaRoche (LAD), Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
In-House: Brian Buscher, Tommy Watkins, Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Matt Moses, Matt Macri, Chris Basak
Outlook: I really don’t see the Twins filling this spot in trade with a veteran. If they trade and get Brandon Wood or Andy LaRoche, then they will most likely slip into the starting role (even though Wood could play SS). In reality, I look for the Twins to sign a low-level free agent, who can play multiple positions to be their insurance at 3B. That would be Mike Lamb. Lamb is a left-handed hitter, who hit .289, 11 HR and 40 RBI’s as a role player with Houston last year. If the Twins sign Lamb, they can also work out Buscher and Macri (in-house leaders), with less risk than if they go into Spring Training with only them as the candidates. Watkins may be a utility infielder (in the mold of Luis Rodriguez), Punto and Harris may play at other positions, but if they fill those positions than either one could play at 3B, and Moses regressed and is still some time away.
SS/2B: Free Agents: SS: David Eckstein (STL), Neifi Perez (DET) 2B: Kaz Matsui (COL), Marcus Giles (SD), Tony Graffanino (MIL), Tadahito Iguchi (PHI), Jose Valentin (NYM).
Trades: Jed Lowry (BOS), Jose Reyes (NYM)
In-House: Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Brendan Harris
Outlook: Brendan Harris, Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla have the edge at these positions. Harris will play either 2B or SS, and depending on a trade or signing, it seems that Casilla or Punto will have the upper hand on the other one. If we go the free-agent route, I think Marcus Giles in a low-risk high reward player, and Iguchi or Matsui would be pretty nice role players if we could get them here. The top way to upgrade here would be through trade. Jose Reyes would be ideal, a great leadoff hitter, fielder and speed guy, but Jed Lowry, who had a .500 slugging % @ AAA, would also be a nice fit.
DH:
Free Agents: Mike Sweeney (KC), Tony Clark (ARI), Sammy Sosa (TEX), Mike Piazza (OAK)
In-House: Jason Kubel, Craig Monroe
Outlook: Ideally the Twins will sign Mike Sweeney. That isn’t going to happen. More likely Jason Kubel will be the DH, and I’m fine with that. He has not been a bad player when he has had consistent at-bats. Monroe will be non-tendered. He won’t be cheap enough, and he didn’t do his job as Torii-Friend to keep Hunter. I do see the Twins trying to sign Tony Clark to fill a bench spot.
CF: Free Agents: Mike Cameron (SD), Darin Erstad (CHW), Kenny Lofton (CLE), Andruw Jones (ATL), Corey Patterson (BAL), Aaron Rowand (PHI), Milton Bradley (SD)
Trades: Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Coco Crisp (BOS), Melky Cabrera (NYY), Austin Jackson (NYY), Carlos Gomez (NYM), Matt Kemp (LAD), Reggie Willits (LAA).
In-House: Jason Pridie, Denard Span, Jason Tyner
Outlook: The Free-Agent market is thinner than it looks. Mike Cameron is suspended 25-Games to start the year, Andruw Jones is being over-priced (by Scott Boras), Milton Bradley isn’t a natural CF, and is a type A Free-Agent, which would cost the Twins a 1st-Round Pick, so he is a no-go. The most likely free-agent candidates are Darin Erstad and Kenny Lofton if we want a stop-gap, or Aaron Rowand if we spend a little money. The In-House candidates are not very stable. Span is not ready, Pridie is an unknown and Tyner is a known (which hurts him). Too many trade targets, but I will look a little at Austin Jackson, the one we have heard the least about. Jackson is 6-1, 185 lbs, and does everything RH. He hir.345 at high-A ball last year, but he doesn’t seem to be our ideal fit, with Ben Revere already entrenched for the future. I assume whichever one we get for Santana will be our starter.
SP: Who We Have: Scott Baker, 4 Spots are open Free-Agents: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents?positionId=15&season=2007
Trades: Clay Buchholz (BOS), Jon Lester (BOS), Ian Kennedy (NYY), Phil Hughes (NYY), Joba Chamberlain (NYY), Ervin Santana (LAA), Jered Weaver (LAA), Joe Saunders (LAA), Dustin Moseley (LAA), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Mike Pelrey (NYM)
In-House: Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Matt Guerrier, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing
Outlook: I see the Twins filling two spots with Liriano (if healthy) and Kevin Slowey. Unfortunately I don’t see either Guerrier or Perkins getting a fair shot (even though Perkins’ is better) because they are so valuable in the bullpen. Blackburn is a real candidate also. I think we fill our last one or two spots through Johan and Joe Nathan Trades.
Closer: Who We Have: Joe Nathan (for now)
If He goes: Free Agents: Armando Benitez (FLA), Eddie Guardado (CIN), Bob Wickman (ATL) In-House: Bobby Korecky, Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier
Outlook: Guerrier is too valuable to be a closer even though he is a perfect fit. It will be one of the former AAA closers. It was Crain in 2005, Neshek in 2006 and Korecky in 2007. I see Neshek closing with Crain and Korecky setting him up.
The Meetings are close…I’m hoping you’re prepared.
