Willie the Puppet, Minaya the Puppetmaster
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by user DNL
You are Willie Randolph. Your Mets are up, 3-2, in the top of the 6th inning.
You brought Ambiorix Burgos into the game last inning, in relief of John Maine, in a precarious situation. Tie game, two outs, bases juiced. The light-hitting Abraham Nunez was up, and Burgos succeeded -- inducing a weak grounder to second.
After the Mets added a run in the bottom of the 5th, you (wisely) let Burgos remain in the game to face Cole Hamels (the opposing pitcher) to lead off the 6th, with Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. But results were poor. Burgos started Hamels off with three straight balls -- yet recovered. He plunked Rollins, who went to third on a Victorino single. Victorino swiped second. That brought up Chase Utley, the left-hand hitting All-Star second baseman who had homered earlier in the day. Following him? Ryan Howard -- another lefty -- and the reigning NL MVP.
If you go by the book, Burgos comes out here, in favor of one of the Mets' two lefties, Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis. Burgos was wholly ineffective in the 6th. His control was erratic at best, and one mistake to either of the next two batters would mean a tie game -- or worse. The pitcher's spot was due up 5th next inning, so a double-switch isn't in order. It was also unnecessary. With an off-day tomorrow, Schoeneweis was the right move. Yes, he pitched the two previous days, but only threw a total of 25 pitches. And you, understandably, want to save Feliciano for the 8th, given that Aaron Heilman is unavailable and Aaron Sele is, well, yeah.
But you leave him in. And he gives you a scare. Burgos and Utley battled for 12 pitches, with Burgos finally emerging victorious, notching his first K of the day.
And up came Ryan Howard. So you... leave him in? He rewards you by getting ahead of Howard, 1-2 -- and then ruins your afternoon by giving up a three run bomb two pitches later.
There are two standard explanations for this mistake:
1) You're an awful manager. 2) Schoeneweis was unavailable; Feliciano was needed in the 8th because Heilman was unavailable, and because you weren't willing to give the 7th to Joe Smith and the 8th to Aaron Sele, or some mix thereof.
Both are plausible. And both, I think, are wrong. The real answer can be summed up in two words:
3) Jorge Julio.
What, pray tell, does the Florida Marlins closer have to do with this?
Before the 2006 season, Mets GM Omar Minaya shipped Kris Benson out to Baltimore for John Maine and Julio. Maine was considered a trinket in the deal (although I and others think he may have been Minaya's prime target), with Julio the "real" target -- outside of getting Anna Benson out of New York, that is.
The deal, on paper, was an odd one for the Mets. They were strapped in the starting pitching department, with Pedro Martinez's toe and Tom Glavine's age shrouding the rotation with doubt. On the other hand, with Heilman slated to move to the bullpen, and with new acquisition Billy Wagner on board, the need for another arm in the pen was, relatively speaking, questionable at best.
This was redoubled by two clear facts: Benson was a good, but hardly superb, starter. Julio was a nightmare with potential -- in the words of Bull Durham, a million-dollar arm and a five-cent head. The Mets, a team built for the "now", didn't really need the risk/reward Julio provided.
Yet Julio had his fair share of appearances in April, even though his first four were undeniable failures. He gave up at least one ER in each, for a total of 11 runs (8 earned) in 4.7 IP. That's an ERA of 15.43.
Nevertheless, the Mets were able to flip him for Orlando Hernandez. Why? Because young risk/reward guys, like Julio -- and like Burgos -- don't really lose that mantle when they fail. They only lose it when they succeed, at which point, they're superstars.
What the Mets were able to do was simple. In late May, they were able to identify a young, struggling team with a veteran who did not fit into their long-term plans. The sales pitch: take this marginally cheaper player -- if he succeeds, great; if not, you're giving up very little anyway. Works for me. You point to his successes (that game against Atlanta where notched two Ks in a perfect, 15 pitch inning; the one versus the Pirates where he faced four batters, walked one -- and struck out the other three) and suddenly, you get the piece you want. After all, who doesn't want a fireballing young reliever? Can you say "future closer"?
So, my theory: Omar Minaya asked Willie to give Burgos a chance in a high-pressure, high-leverage situation. In this case, Willie did exactly that, by giving Burgos the chance to work himself out of a jam, even though the players he had to face were (a) lefties and, more importantly (b) really freaking good.
After all, if Burgos were a closer -- say, for the now 1-6 Phillies, in exchange for Jamie Moyer -- you're not pulling him just because Albert Pujols is up. Closers stay in the game, and Omar is trying to create value where there is none.
I like it.
