Will Clemens' Denial Make His Hall Of Fame Vote: "No"?
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by Aprisco
How do we judge accusations of steroid or HGH use and a player's possible entry to the Hall of Fame? There are essentially two schools of thought. One, cheating goes to the player's character and just like Shoeless Joe Jackson took money to throw games and Pete Rose bet on games including those of his own team he managed, a player using an illegal substance damaged the integrity of the game and should be banned for life. Are the Hall of Fame voters taking this view? It's hard to say since the only major player to come up for election to the Hall of Fame from the steroid era is Mark McGwire and his election was no certainty.
The other school of thought, aside from a blanket denial, is to take each player on a case by case basis. Based upon reading articles, watching sports news and listening to writers with Hall of Fame ballots, the standards to analyze in determining entry to the Hall of Fame are the following:
1) The Statistics
Statistics cannot be denied. Just how great a player are we talking about? Here we go from Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, two all time greats, to borderline players such as McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro. Obviously, the more borderline you are, the more likely that your entry will be rejected or it will take longer for you to get entry.
2) Evidence that Steroids Aided Your Entry
Here again the classic example is McGwire. He was completey one dimensional, a home run hitter who barely reached over 500 home runs. His other statistics don't merit a Hall of Fame induction. Thus steroid use put him over the top and practically made him a Hall of Famer. With other players it's much tougher to analyze. For example, how do you view Sammy Sosa? He was a good all-around player without steroid use but steroid use made him a great player. The numbers in his case though are tougher to quantify.
3) Were You Caught Lying About Your Use Or Did You Admit It
We seem to get caught up in whether a player lies about his use. People were real upset about Palmero going in front of Congress and saying he never used steroids and then getting caught later. Similarly if Bonds is found guilty of perjury it will be a severe blow to his candidacy. This is where Roger Clemens' denial could put him in dangerous territory if more solid proof comes out that he did indeed take steroids. Then there are the questions surrounding players who have been evasive such as McGwire and Sosa before Congress. No one liked that either and both took severe blows as a result.
Perhaps the best approach here is to come clean and admit it. People like to forgive. In this respect Andy Pettitte could become an interesting example. If Pettitte gets over 250 career wins (he's at 201 now), he would become a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. In the days of a 5-man rotation and middle relief pitching, 250 wins will become the new 300. Plus he has 4 world series rings. Will his admission that he used HGH even if it was just twice, make his vote a negative for the voters?
4) Were You Caught Under MLB's Drug Policy
This has really seemed to be a big factor in terms of Palmeiro. It appears that if you are caught under MLB's drug policy and suspended then you are likely not getting into the Hall of Fame. But then again, Palmeiro is a borderline Hall of Famer to begin with. What if Albert Pujols or A-Rod are caught? Would they be denied entry? That is difficult to say.
Admittedly this process is unfair. For example, what about Pudge Rodriguez? Does anyone doubt he has used steroids? Yet, his name has not shown up anywhere and unless something comes up at a later date he will not have a problem getting into the Hall of Fame.
The standards above would indicate that the greater the statistics, the strength of the proof and your ability to come clean will all play a factor. As a result even Bonds and Clemens could be in trouble due to their adamant denials and the strength of the proof against them. Now that he has denied his use, Clemens better be ready to fight to clear his name or his Hall of Fame entry could be in trouble.
