Why the Miami-New England game will be close
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by Wizardman
I like how all the "experts" are saying just how badly the New England Patriots will crush the Miami Dolphins this afternoon. Makes sense, the Pats are 14-0, the Dolphins 1-13. I know no one's going to even consider an upset, but for people to this that it will be a 30+ point difference? Ridiculous. It's quite simple as to why the game will be close, you just have to look at a few underlying factors:
1. What the broadcasters say. There are four games that they told us the spread would be huge on and that New England would still be a safe bet to pick: Philadelphia, Baltimore, the New York Jets, and now Miami. Look at the results of those other three: close games.
2. Miami always plays New England tough in game #2. In 2006, NE lost 21-0 in game #2 after originally winning 20-10. In 2005, they lost 28-26 after originally winning 23-16. In 2004, yet ANOTHER loss. 29-28 after a 24-10 win. In 2003, they won their second game. That's how far back you have to go, 2003.
3. The weather. The lack of snow will help the other side's argument, but at 42 degrees with a pretty good chance of rain and 20-odd mph winds in the afternoon, that might hurt the Pats' offense a bit. It did last week.
4. Momentum on both sides. The Dolphins just came off a great win, signed Bill Parcells, and have their history on the line. The Pats want that undefeated season, but could this mean the possibility of overplaying and crashing? I highly doubt it, but it's something to think about.
5. Miami's pass defense. It's ranked fourth in the league, plus I don't think they're planning on a repeat of the first game.
So, now will things end up? I see the end result as within two touchdowns, though I don't have an exact guess. perhaps 27-17, 21-13, something along those lines. Now, maybe I'll be wrong and the Pats will defy history yet again. But this is a matchup that's just begging to mess with everyone at the betting tables.
But when it comes to #1, I could make an argument for that. For the past 2 weeks, I thought the Pats would lose. Have they? Nope.
I can't argue much with 2-5. They seem like pretty solid reasons.
I'm usually pessimistic when it comes to any games, no matter who they face. I think the only reason they lost to the Dolphins last year was because they underrated them so much, and of course, the weather (reason #3).
It will still be a close game though. Good article.