Why the Colorado Buffaloes will go at least 5-7 this season
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by user MECU
Here is the schedule:
| Day, Date | Opponent | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 01 | Colorado State | Denver, Colo. |
| Sat, Sep 08 | Arizona State | at Tempe, Ariz. |
| Sat, Sep 15 | FLORIDA STATE | BOULDER |
| Sat, Sep 22 | MIAMI, OHIO | BOULDER |
| Sat, Sep 29 | *OKLAHOMA | BOULDER |
| Sat, Oct 06 | *Baylor | at Waco, Texas |
| Sat, Oct 13 | *Kansas State | at Manhattan, Kansas |
| Sat, Oct 20 | *KANSAS | BOULDER |
| Sat, Oct 27 | *Texas Tech | at Lubbock, Texas |
| Sat, Nov 03 | *MISSOURI | BOULDER |
| Sat, Nov 10 | *Iowa State | at Ames, Iowa |
| Fri, Nov 23 | *NEBRASKA | BOULDER |
- Wins:
- Colorado State - Colorado State hasn't won two in a row against Colorado since 1999-2000, and the second game was close at 28-24; before that was in the 1940s. With the Rocky Mountain Showdown split over the last 8 games, with two of those in Boulder. If you just count all the recent neutral games in the series, the Rams are 4-7. But the Buffs have dominated the series at 57-19-2 since 1893 so you have to expect Hawkins to come out and make this a statement game.
- Arizona State - Just the second meeting for the two teams, with the last one last season when the Sun Devils dominated 21-3 and were ranked #23. But this is a new season and a new head coach which should cause some shakeups for the Sun Devils, and with a competitive Colorado team, this is a win.
- Miami (Ohio) - Miami was horrible last season, like Colorado. But Miami is in the MAC, and with no expectations to improve, Colorado coasts to a win at home for the first win ever over Miami.
- Baylor - The first payback chance for Hawkins. Baylor squeaked out a win 34-31 in triple overtime last season, and at the same time stole Hawkins' first win. But Baylor has proven to belong in the basement while Colorado is climbing their way out. Colorado is 8-6 in the series, but 6 of the last 10.
- Kansas - A respectable 7-5 last season and a 20-15 win over CU, but like Baylor, these are the teams Colorado routinely expects to win and will. Colorado is 41-22-3 in the series.
- Close Games
- Kansas State - Last season's first-season head coach match-up proved nothing. Kansas State is likely still living off legendary Bill Snyder, and Ron Price is just trying not to screw it up. A 34-21 dominating win last year is an aberration in the series. 41-22-3 Colorado in control. A win is clearly possible, especially at home. But some mistakes by the offense still trying to learn the system is likely and which prevents the team from winning.
- Iowa State - Similar to Kansas State: Colorado leads the series 47-13-1 and lost 33-16 last year. A road game this year for the Buffs and with Iowa State 7-5 last season. An even match-up of teams that in future years Colorado will expect to win.
- Missouri - Missouri won last year to add to their lead in the series at 37-31-3. But the teams are on equal ground now. Equal competition in the Big 12 North once again.
- Losses
- Florida State - The second meeting for the two teams. Colorado is not ready to compete against the elite levels, yet. A win is possible since it's at home and Florida State didn't exactly set the world on fire last season at 7-6, including their bowl win over UCLA. Especially since they didn't really beat anyone worthy. Miami was ranked #11 when Florida State beat them, but that ranking proved to be a joke. But comparing the Florida 5-star talent to the Colorado's home-grown (or imported-grown) talent isn't possible until Hawkins can develop them, which he hasn't quite had time to do in just over a season.
- Oklahoma - OU won. They had won by the end of the first quarter, but rules prevented ending the game early. Colorado is not ready for the elite level this season.
- Texas Tech - This could be a close game, but after what Colorado did to the Red Raiders last year to get Hawkins' first win, they want payback, and they will get it. Some may say that Tech felt sorry for the winless Buffs and Hawk and let them win, but an embarrassing win? The defense shut-down one of the best offenses in the game.
- Nebraska - The after-Thanksgiving-day noon-time sleeper again this year. It could either be a sleep-walk for Colorado or a nail-biter hoping to make the bowl-season. NU is on the rise again and Colorado is just trying to rise up. Not this year. Hopefully ABC keeps this on tap for future years despite the past few years yawn-fests (thank you tryptophan!).
With all that said, 5-7 seems a lock, but 8-4 is a real possibility. You have to factor in that Hawkins knows what he's doing: He does like to lose. (Who does?) But Hawkins hates it so much, he's the 11th winningest active head coach at 94-33-1 (.738), and 55-21 (.724) in I-A. And 10 of those losses came last season. Hawk is not a loser. He also has two capable quarterbacks, unlike last season where he had three incapable quarterbacks. The Defense was never in question, and won't be again this year. If the offense can merely add a touchdown per game, that would have been 4 more wins last season.
Another 2-10 season would be disastrous, and Barnett will be laughing himself all the way home. It won't happen. This will be a solid rebuilding year with signs pointing towards the future for which Hawkins can recruit even better talent on and improve even more once his system is fully entrenched.
Bowl game: possible. 3-1 odds.
