Why Strikeouts Do Matter: Going Deeper
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
Alright, I am going to go deeper on my earlier article, Why Strikeouts Do Matter.
| The Strikeout Debate |
| Award Race: August 28 |
| Why Strikeouts Do Matter |
| All outs are NOT created equal - the Strikeout rebuttal. |
| Why Strikeouts Do Matter: Going Deeper |
Instead of using the top 10 versus bottom 10, let's look at how the ERA and RA+ change from the first to final quartile. RA+ is a pitcher's runs against compared to average (100). Unlike ERA, it is better if RA+ is higher. This accounts for unearned runs.
Here is a look at ERA and RA+ for the top k/9 pitcher’s from the first to fourth quartile.
| Q | ERA | RA+ |
| Q1 | 3.46 | 1.23 |
| Q2 | 4.01 | 1.09 |
| Q3 | 4.43 | 1.00 |
| Q4 | 4.52 | 0.96 |
Obviously, as the k/9 drops, ERA and RA+ both get worse. Look at the same for bb/9.
| Q | ERA | RA+ |
| Q1 | 3.76 | 1.15 |
| Q2 | 4.26 | 1.01 |
| Q3 | 4.34 | 1.01 |
| Q4 | 4.11 | 1.04 |
This is what I want you to notice: Even the pitcher’s who allow the most walks are better than the bottom half in k/9 Pitcher’s actually improve in the last quartile.
Pitcher’s ERA increases by over a run from the best k/9 to the worst. There’s less than a .4 increase from the best control pitchers to the worst
THIS WAS MY POINT!!! It is more important to strike people out than to be a control pitcher. If strikeout pitchers are “lulling their fielders to sleep”, they are still outperforming the control group.
Here is the same chart with h/9.
| Q | ERA | RA+ |
| Q1 | 3.28 | 1.32 |
| Q2 | 3.91 | 1.09 |
| Q3 | 4.36 | 0.99 |
| Q4 | 5.05 | 0.89 |
As you can see, giving up hits kills a pitcher’s success and, as I pointed out in the previous article, k/9 has a fairly strong correlation with a LOW h/9 (.5008 r-squared).
Home runs
Manny has consistently stated that strikeout pitchers give up more home runs. Actually, there is no relationship between k/9 and hr/9 (.0815 r-squared). There is actually a slight negative slope in the data, pointing toward less home runs given up the more strikeouts a pitcher records.
Final note, I used the three most recent years of data because I am concerned with the present. Manny, somehow you thought I randomly picked those years because they are the highest years of strikeouts? Did you happen to consider they were also the most recent years or do you just go straight for the conspiracy theory?
Strikeout pitcher's DO NOT tend to be control pitchers. Yes, Manny, I agree, because strikeout pitchers are better. If you can be a strikeout pitcher AND a control pitcher, then you are even better.
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Date
Wed 08/30/06, 10:06 am EST
I made my point - strikeouts aren't neccessary for pitching success, nor is a strikeout the most important/effective type of out. (in reality the LAST out is ALWAYS the MOST important)
and you can keep trying to prove yours - strikeouts are cool.
but I'll just say I think you 'struck out looking' on this one.