Why Strikeouts Do Matter

From 2003-2005, there were 184 instances of a pitcher throwing 150 or more innings in a season. I decided to find out how well strikeouts, as well as control, correlated with success. My motivation for this article stemmed from Manny Stiles’ comments in a recent article of mine.

The Strikeout Debate

Award Race: August 28

Why Strikeouts Do Matter

All outs are NOT created equal - the Strikeout rebuttal.

Why Strikeouts Do Matter: Going Deeper

First, let’s just look at a list of the top and bottom ten seasons in strikeouts/nine.

#	YEAR	NAME	SO/9
1	2003	Kerry Wood	11.35
2	2004	Oliver Perez	10.97
3	2004	Randy Johnson	10.62
4	2004	Johan Santana	10.46
5	2003	Mark Prior	10.43
6	2003	Curt Schilling	10.39
7	2005	Mark Prior	10.15
8	2004	Jason Schmidt	10.04
9	2004	Ben Sheets	10.03
10	2003	Pedro Martinez	9.93
Bottom
275	2005	Jason Johnson	3.99
276	2004	Brian Anderson	3.74
277	2005	Horacio Ramirez	3.56
278	2004	Carlos Silva	3.44
279	2005	Joe Mays	3.4
280	2005	Carlos Silva	3.39
281	2003	Danny Graves	3.2
282	2005	Kirk Saarloos	2.99
283	2004	Kirk Rueter	2.6
284	2003	Nate Cornejo	2.13

So, which ten would you choose? If you can’t decide, group one had a median ERA of 2.82, compared to group two’s 4.65 ERA.

I’m not saying strikeouts are all that matter, but the best strikeout pitchers tend to be better than the best control pitchers. Here are the best and worst for control, or BB/9.

#	YEAR	NAME	BB/9
1	2005	Carlos Silva	0.43
2	2003	David Wells	0.85
3	2004	Jon Lieber	0.92
4	2004	David Wells	0.92
5	2004	Brad Radke	1.01
6	2005	Brad Radke	1.03
7	2005	David Wells	1.03
8	2003	Roy Halladay	1.08
9	2003	Brad Radke	1.19
10	2004	Ben Sheets	1.22
Bottom
275	2004	Shawn Estes	4.68
276	2005	Scott Kazmir	4.84
277	2005	Daniel Cabrera	4.85
278	2005	Kip Wells	4.9
279	2003	Shawn Estes	4.9
280	2004	Russ Ortiz	4.93
281	2004	Al Leiter	5.03
282	2003	Victor Zambrano	5.07
283	2004	Kazuhisa Ishii	5.13
284	2004	Brandon Webb	5.15

There is definitely a drop in quality from list one to two, but Webb, Kazmir, and Leiter all posted sub-4.00 ERAs in those years. The median ERA in the top list is 3.89, compared to 4.37 in the bottom list. Not nearly as drastic a difference as the strikeout lists.

The main objective, however, is not to strike people out, but to get them out. This is done by not allowing hits. So, here is the list of the best and worst by Hits/9.

#	YEAR	NAME	H/9
1	2004	Johan Santana	6.16
2	2005	Roger Clemens	6.43
3	2004	Randy Johnson	6.48
4	2003	Kerry Wood	6.48
5	2005	Pedro Martinez	6.59
6	2003	Jason Schmidt	6.59
7	2004	Jason Schmidt	6.6
8	2004	Oliver Perez	6.66
9	2005	Carlos Zambrano	6.85
10	2003	Brandon Webb	6.97
Bottom
275	2004	Darrell May	11.32
276	2004	Carlos Silva	11.34
277	2005	Eric Milton	11.45
278	2005	Mark Hendrickson	11.46
279	2005	Zack Greinke	11.46
280	2005	Jose Lima	11.69
281	2005	Joe Mays	11.71
282	2003	Mark Hendrickson	11.77
283	2004	Brian Anderson	11.77
284	2003	Jeff Weaver	11.92

First, the median ERA for the top is 2.83 and a dreadful 5.73 for the bottom. Hmmm… there seems to be a common trait amongst the top list. They are strikeout pitchers.

So, it appears the best way to go is allow the fewest hits. It also appears the best way to do this is strike out a lot of batters. It makes sense, since strikeout pitchers rely less on the work of their defense. Also, the less balls in play, the less ways a batter can reach base safely. To further show the relationship between strikeouts and h/9, I did a regression analysis. The r-squared between k/9 and h/9 was .5008. In other words, 50% of a pitcher’s effectiveness in h/9 comes from k/9. BB/9 only correlated to a .0177 r-squared. So a pitcher’s control has virtually no link to their ability to not allow hits. As shown, strikeout pitcher’s tend to hold an advantage over control pitcher’s.

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Date

Wed 08/30/06, 6:30 am EST

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Awrigh01All-Star

1190 days ago

Score 2

very interesting. Good Job bro!

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ChachiOSUDraft Pick

1190 days ago

Score 1

First off it is ludicrous to compare the absolute top to the absolute bottom. Half the guys at the bottom of these lists are crappy pitchers that last a year or two in the majors and then wash out. That's like looking at the best batting averages and worst and saying see, the bottom guys got out more. No, really? You don't say. Also, H/9 are great, but where that translates into a difference is ERA and opponents slugging percentage. If a guy is only giving up 5 hits a game but two are homers and 3 are doubles he is going to give up more runs then the guy who gave up 7 singles over 7 innings. I think you will come out on top in this arguement, but I think you need to dig deeper than this.

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Bball3345Draft Pick

1190 days ago

Score 1

Keep in mind I did have a 150 innings pitched min. So these guys all got a full season of work.

Why Strikeouts Do Matter

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