Who will win the AL Cy Young?
| 17
|
by MikeRyan1221
Voters for the 2007 AL Cy Young Award have to answer one question for themselves: How much does durability matter? Does it matter more than performance? Does it matter more than pure dominance? Does pitching forty more innings or making four more starts make a pitcher that much better, even if he’s not as dominant in those innings? If durability matters more than dominance, C.C. Sabathia will win the 2007 AL Cy Young. If not, if dominance matters more, Josh Beckett should win the award.
The AL Cy Young race has come down to basically three pitchers: Sabathia, Beckett, and Sabathia’s Cleveland teammate Fausto Carmona. Johan Santana, probably the best pitcher in baseball with the possible exception of Jake Peavy, isn’t having his typical year. Erik Bedard got hurt. John Lackey had a few too many bad starts. Kelvim Escobar faded. Chien Ming BLEEP hasn’t been as good as the New York media has made him out to have been. Sabathia, Beckett, and Carmona are the survivors, the three pitchers who have lasted until the end. Each pitcher has one start left and probably can only hurt his credentials in that start. If all three pitch well in their final starts, nothing about this analysis will change. If any falter, he won’t win the award.
Let’s look at all three pitchers individually to see why they do and don’t deserve the award:
C.C. Sabathia: 33 G, 234 IP, 18-7, 3.19 ERA, 7.88 SO/9, 1.38 BB/9, .73 HR/9, 1.14 WHIP, 63.1 VORP, 1.91 VORP/G
Okay. Sabathia has been an absolute horse with 33 games and 234 IP. Aside from that, he’s been pretty damn good as well, winning 18 games with just a 3.19 ERA. His VORP of 63.1 leads the American League as well. He’s the ace for a division winner. Against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels, he is 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA in 3 starts. He’s been a stud this year. There’s really no negative to Sabathia’s performance this year except that it might not be as dominant as Beckett’s or Carmona’s.
Fausto Carmona: 31 G, 208 IP, 18-8, 3.03 ERA, 5.75 SO/9, 2.64 BB/9, .61 HR/9, 1.22 WHIP, 62.1 VORP, 2.0 VORP/G
Carmona probably doesn’t really have a shot at the Cy Young, even though he should, because he’s in his first full major league season. There simply isn’t enough notoriety around baseball for what he’s done. There were many people who thought his career would be over after he imploded repeatedly as a closer late last season, but he’s been absolutely brilliant as a starter. He’s been better than Sabathia on a VORP/G basis, but is one run behind him because of fewer starts (he was in the minors). Against the playoff teams, Carmona went 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 3 starts. Because he’s not treated as the ace of his own staff, Carmona probably has no realistic shot, although there’s a strong argument to support him winning the award. This situation is similar to the 2002 AL Cy Young race where Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe lost out to Barry Zito. The teammates split votes, as might Carmona and Sabathia.
Josh Beckett: 29 G, 194.7 IP, 20-6, 3.14 ERA, 8.69 SO/9, 1.85 BB/9, .69 HR/9, 1.13 WHIP, 59.2 VORP, 2.04 VORP/G
Beckett has been, quite simply, the most dominant of any of these three starters. While his VORP is about 4 runs behind Sabathia’s, that doesn’t even equate to half of a win in the grand scheme of things. Also, his VORP/G is the best in the AL , third in baseball behind Jake Peavy and Brad Penny. His ERA is behind Carmona’s among the candidates, but his WHIP is the lowest and his strikeout rate is the highest (almost 1 per inning). He also has the magical 20 wins that the voters love in a season where he might be the only 20 game winner. Against the AL playoff teams, he went 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA in a whopping 8 starts. The only case against Beckett is that he’s pitched less than Sabathia and Carmona; Beckett missed 2 and a half starts because of an avulsion on his pitching hand. Still, the fact that he’s been most dominant should count for something.
So what’s the verdict? If the voters want a workhorse who hasn’t been quite as dominant, Sabathia should win it. If the voters want a guy who’s been part workhorse, part dominant, and part great story, Carmona should win it. If the voters want to admire the magical 20 wins and don’t care about whether the guy’s been a workhorse because he’s been dominant, Beckett will walk away with the award.
Personally, I think that Beckett, due to the Boston factor will get the vote. Personally, I hope Beckett gets the vote because he’s my favorite Boston pitcher (second favorite behind Pedro Martinez), but obviously I’m biased in that hope. Beckett has the flair and the past credentials (2003 World Series MVP) that voters factor in erroneously, but do factor in.
In all honestly, the Boston/flair factor should NOT matter. Honestly, the voting could go Sabathia, Beckett, Carmona, and I’d be absolutely fine with it, but I anticipate Beckett winning.
Comments? Opinions? Accusations of Boston bias?
