Who should be the Blazers point guard?
| 14
|
by user Jpit
Assuming the Blazers draft Greg Oden, they will have the 2, 4 & 5 spots locked up, presumably for the next decade. But who will run the point for the talented Brandon Roy/LaMarcus Aldridge/Greg Oden troika?
The Blazers have two promising young point guards on the roster, in Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez. The 23-year-old Jack averaged 12 points and 5 assists as the starter last season. He shot the ball at a reasonably efficient 45% clip from the field and an excellent 87% from the foul line. Jack suffered a late-season slump, averaging a mere 7.7 ppg in March, but finished with several strong games in April. Jack, by all accounts, has shown the high character and tremendous work ethic that Blazer management is trying to cultivate.
Although Jack had some consistency problems and is merely an average defender, I thought he showed nice progress in his second year and proved that he's capable of being a steady (although not spectacular) starting point guard in the League. So I found it surprising when Jack's name started popping up in several trade rumors this off-season. Why would the Blazers want to move him?
Jason Quick, in a chat this summer, suggested that Blazer management doesn't think Jack has the talent to lead a playoff contender (check here for the archives). But if Jack isn't the answer, who is?
21-year-old Sergio Rodriguez showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie. It's hard not to get excited about Sergio's potential when you watch this clip:
But Sergio never found favor with Coach Nate McMillan, and averaged a mere 13 minutes a game. His defense is porous, at best. I strongly doubt the Blazers are ready to turn the team over to Sergio next season. I'm not convinced he'll ever be the starter - he just doesn't strike me as a "Nate" guy. So if we're going to trade Jack, and Sergio isn't ready, who will Portland bring in?
Enter Steve Blake. The popular former Blazer averaged 8 points and around 7 assists as a starter for the second half of last season in Denver. Blake started 57 games for the Blazers in 05-06. Blake owns a home in Portland, and recently expressed a willingness to return. Blake is an unrestricted free agent, and could be signed quite cheaply.
I'd be happy to sign Blake as a backup. But frankly, I don't think he's good enough to be the starter. Blake is a 40% career shooter. His playoff performance against the Spurs this year was underwhelming. He looked completely out of place as a starting playoff point guard, and maintained a deer-in-headlights look down the stretch of the one close SA/DEN game that I caught. Also, click on the Sergio highlight video link above, and see if you can spot Blake being repeatedly torched on D- that is, until Denver had to switch to zone.
If the Blazers are going to trade Jack, I'm convinced they either (i) have a trade in place to bring in a talented veteran (Billups? Andre Miller? -this seems unlikely, but maybe Pritchard is up to something) or (ii) have their eye on a particular rookie in the draft.
This year's draft, while very strong at the top and deep at the small forward position, does not have many good point guards. Mike Conley is the top prospect, and will very likely land in the top 5. I think Portland would like to get Conley, but they certainly won't give up Roy or Aldridge to get him. I don't think anybody is willing to give up the #5 pick to get Zach Randolph. Acie Law of Texas A&M is the clear-cut #2 guy after Conley, in my mind. He's coming off a fantastic senior season, carrying his squad to a top-ten ranking for much of the year. Law has the size and the skill set to step in and start as a rookie. His shot, while unconventional, fell at a very solid 46% clip from deep last season. Javaris Crittenton of Georgia Tech is slated as a first round pick as well. Crittenton is a big, explosive scorer. He also averaged 4 turnovers a game while leading a talented GT team through a disappointing season. Crittenton is not ready to take over an NBA team (and may never be ready). Nor are we going to find a savior in the second round, although Ramon Sessions or Zabian Dowdell would probably be worth a flier with one of the Blazers' four picks.
I don't see a clear solution here. I hate the idea of moving Jack and signing Blake as the starter. Blake and Sergio have exactly the same weaknesses (and body type, which is one of the weaknesses). I like Acie Law, but would it be worth shipping a known quantity in Jack (possibly to Atlanta for the #11 pick) to acquire an unproven rookie?
I'd be perfectly happy if all the Jack trade talk turns out to be just a smokescreen. Let's pencil Jarrett in as the starter and worry about finding a small forward.
Check out our new Blazers blog
