Who is the Best Leadoff Man: Reyes v. Youk
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by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)
What I am about to do will be to try to determine who is the best leadoff hitter in the bigs. Along the way, I will make a verdict between Reyes and Youk. When I came upon my answer to the question, I couldn't help but laugh, and I am sure many of you will laugh when you see what the numbers have to say. Let me take you through the process one step at a time.
First, I took the 30 players who had led off an inning the most times this year. Most of these players should be leadoff hitters; although, Hafner happened to be among the group. From there, I decided to give them all a projected 750 Plate Appearances to make it even. Then, I projected out their singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, stolen bases, caught stealing, and miscellaneous (any way to get on base such as a hit by pitch).
Adding up all the ways to get on for each batter gives them their total times on base, a key part to the leadoff man's job. If you didn't notice, this would be equivalent to OBP, because I gave them all 750 plate appearances. At this point, Youkilis ranks 2nd behind Hafner, who isn't actually a leadoff man and Reyes ranks 18th. This doesn't tell the whole story, so I took it a step further.
While getting on base is a key part to the leadoff hitter's role, they should also get a more favorable position on the bases. For example, a player who gets on at a high rate, but with all singles, would not be as valuable as a player who got on at a slightly lower rate, but with all triples. It would be easier to score the runner from third than first. Thus, I found each batter's average starting position. A single and walk would be worth one, doubles two, etc. and then divided the sum by the total times on base. Stolen bases were credited the same as a single or walk and a caught stealing canceled out a stolen base. Here, Reyes has a huge advantage to Youkilis. Reyes has the second best starting position, behind Soriano(thanks to his 24 HRs which score him automatically). Youkilis ranked 22nd.
From here, there was one final step. I combined the role of getting on(times on base) and average starting position by multiplying them together. Youkilis would get on 325 times with a 1.38 average starting position for a score of 449. Reyes would get on only 260 times but with a 1.69 ASP for a score of 440. This would rank Youkilis 4th and Reyes 5th, by a rather slim margin. When you account for the fact Reyes has slightly more speed and can, thus, score easier on some hits, the gap narrows. So, after looking at the numbers, Youkilis' advantage of getting on base more often, seems to be almost completely taken away by Reyes' speed and triples.
I made a change to the formula after realizing that Times On Base canceled itself out in the last step. So, I divided the total bases and stolen bases sum by total Plate Appearances instead of Times on Base. Jose Reyes takes a big hit, because he makes far too many outs. The New Results are posted below the original list.
Player LeadoffScore Travis Hafner 516 Alfonso Soriano 484 Grady Sizemore 456 Kevin Youkilis 449 Jose Reyes 440 Gary Matthews 438 Ichiro Suzuki 424 Ryan Freel 418 Johnny Damon 417 Magglio Ordonez 413 Chase Utley 413 Curtis Granderson 411 Dave Roberts 410 Rickie Weeks 398 Brian Roberts 391 Hanley Ramirez 385 Felipe Lopez 382 Jamey Carroll 380 Jimmy Rollins 369 Scott Podsednik 369 Craig Biggio 362 Chone Figgins 351 Randy Winn 349 Marcus Giles 332 Cory Sullivan 330 Rafael Furcal 327 David Eckstein 326 Joshua Barfield 316 Craig Counsell 314 Juan Pierre 303
NEW RESULTS(w/ PA instead of times on base)
Player LeadoffScore Travis Hafner 232 Kevin Youkilis 195 Ichiro Suzuki 176 Gary Matthews 171 Grady Sizemore 169 Alfonso Soriano 168 Ryan Freel 163 Jamey Carroll 159 Curtis Granderson155 Johnny Damon 153 Jose Reyes 153 Dave Roberts 150 Chase Utley 150 Brian Roberts 149 Rickie Weeks 149 Magglio Ordonez 146 Felipe Lopez 137 Hanley Ramirez 128 Scott Podsednik 126 David Eckstein 123 Craig Biggio 122 Randy Winn 118 Jimmy Rollins 116 Chone Figgins 113 Marcus Giles 110 Rafael Furcal 107 Craig Counsell 106 Cory Sullivan 100 Joshua Barfield 91 Juan Pierre 88
Date
Thu 06/22/06, 7:17 am EST
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