Who deserves to start the ASG?
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by user Kwitt11
Just three days left until the All-Star voting closes...you can still vote on MLB.com. But don't do that just yet - take a minute to read through the following analysis of who you should vote for...
American League:
Catcher: One of the easiest choices on the ballot...you pretty much have to go with Jorge Posada. He's second in OBP, to Joe Mauer, but he's first in BA, SLG, and OPS. And Mauer was hurt for pretty much the whole month of May. Victor Martinez does have a huge edge in homers and RBI, but Posada's still slugging better and RBI is a pretty meaningless statistic. Plus, Martinez is a terrible defensive catcher, and Posada is probably about average. Here's something kind of interesting - KC catcher John Buck has 13 homers, but only 26 RBI - obviously a function of the KC lineup. (He's actually second among catchers in HR despite having almost 100 less at-bats than V-Mart and the other top candidates.) Posada has won in the past just because he's a Yankee (like last year, when he somehow beat out the infinitely more deserving Joe Mauer), but this year he actually does deserve it.
How the voters are doing: For once, they actually haven't elected the Yankee...and they've gotten it wrong in doing so. Pudge Rodriguez holds more than a 200,000 vote edge on Posada, with both Varitek and Mauer close behind Jorge. Pudge isn't having a terrible year, but there isn't a single meaningful or even semi-meaningful category in which he leads Posada. Martinez is fifth, way behind the top four.
Who I'm voting for: Jorge Posada.
Acceptable to vote for: Victor Martinez, I guess - his offensive numbers are just about as good as Posada's. I can't really see voting for anybody else, given that Mauer got injured.
First Base: This one gets sort of tricky, because the game's in an NL park, so DHs like David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are on the ballot as first basemen. Carlos Pena's 1.026 OPS is very enticing, but he hasn't had as many plate appearances as some of the other guys, and besides, do you really want Carlos Pena starting in the All-Star game? Casey Kotchman's quietly putting up a great year, as he's third in OPS among true first baseman. Mark Teixeira was doing well, but he's hurt now. For a while, it looked like Kevin Youkilis was the right choice, but he's fallen off over the past couple weeks, and now has "only" a .920 OPS. That's good, because he's just a write-in candidate now that Ortiz is on the ballot, so it's not like there was any chance of him starting anyways. I'm not really sure I see any standouts here...Justin Morneau was having a pretty good year; he got hurt last Friday in a collision at home plate but it looks like he'll be back pretty soon. David Ortiz probably has the best numbers, including a 1.016 OPS, but you could really go with a lot of people here. Travis Hafner is having a surprisingly average year, OPSing just .838.
How the voters are doing: Pretty good. Ortiz leads, by a pretty large margin. Justin Morneau is second, and he's done pretty well also. The Tigers must be pushing their guys pretty hard, because there's no way in hell Sean Casey belongs anywhere near the #3 spot - he's hitting just .289 with one homer, and his .730 OPS is 12th among starting first basemen. Typical Yankee bias shows up with Giambi in the top four despite not really doing all that well.
Who I'm voting for: David Ortiz. Plus, you get the comedy of him trying to play first base for the first three innings.
Acceptable to vote for: A long list here...Youkilis, Pena, Teixeira, Morneau, and Kotchman are all solid choices.
Second Base: This one's tough. There's nobody on this list I really want starting for me if I'm Jim Leyland. B.J. Upton has a huge lead in OPS, with an 80 point edge over anybody else at the position, but he's missed most of June with an injury. Plus, he's been pretty lucky to get the stats he has; he has struck out a ton, and he doesn't have enough power and doesn't walk enough to balance that out. He'll probably start a couple all-star games in the future if he stays at second base, as this is his first full season in the big leagues, but I have a hard time voting for him this year. The problem is that there isn't really another deserving candidate. Nobody at the position has good counting stats - Ian Kinsler leads the group with 14 homers, and he's the only one in double digits. Brian Roberts is second in OPS, and he's swiped 24 bases, which is an overrated statistic but it's still kind of notable. Dustin Pedroia's having a good year (3rd in OPS).
How the voters are doing: It's hard to do really poorly at this positino, because you can make a case for just about everybody. Placido Polanco leads by a fairly comfortable margin, which is a combination of the pro-Tigers and pro-batting average biases that appear in the voting. Polanco leads all 2Bs in batting average (.329), but that's pretty much his only skill. Robbie Cano is second (of course) despite having a pretty poor year. Pedroia's third and Upton is fifth, sandwiching the random Luis Castillo (.336 SLG, 12 RBI).
Who I'm voting for: I'm leaning towards Brian Roberts...he's probably got the best overall numbers.
Acceptable to vote for: Pretty much anybody, frankly. Except Luis Castillo. Upton, Pedroia, Kinsler, Polanco, and Aaron Hill are all reasonable candidates.
Third Base: The easiest vote on the ballot...it's gotta be Nick Punto, of course. Seriously, if you don't vote for A-Rod and his league-leading 1.140 OPS, you're crazy. Troy Glaus and Mike Lowell have been pretty good, also, but there's no rationale for not voting A-Rod.
How the voters are doing: A-Rod leads all AL vote-getters with over 2.5 million votes, and deservingly so. Lowell is second, Tigers 3B Brandon Inge is third.
Who I'm voting for: A-Rod. He's slugging .707!
Acceptable to vote for: Sorry, A-Rod is the only answer. Well, maybe Nick Punto.
Shortstop: With apologies to Jhonny Peralta and Brendan Harris, this is a two-man race. Carlos Guillen and Derek Jeter each are having good years, with OPSes over .900. Jeter has a slight edge in batting average, but Guillen has almost a 100 point edge in slugging percentage. AL shortstop used to be a loaded position, but A-Rod's move to third combined with Miguel Tejada's relatively poor year mean that there isn't a whole lot left.
How the voters are doing: Jeter #1, Guillen #2, Jeter has a big edge. But I absolutely love the fact that Julio Lugo is fifth. Over 500,000 people voted for a guy whose batting average is .191! His OPS is .541 (third-worst of any AL regular)! You don't think there's anything wrong with the voting?
Who I'm voting for: I'm going with Guillen. He's a better defender, too.
Acceptable to vote for: Jeter. And absolutely not Julio Lugo.
Outfield: Let's see...Magglio Ordonez has to be on anyone's ballot. His 1.096 OPS is a hundred points better than any other outfielder's, and is second in the league to A-Rod. He leads all OFs in all the rate stats (BA, OBP, SLG) and is second in RBI. Vladimir Guerrero is second in OPS (.989), with a pretty significant edge over anybody else. Vlad is also third in HRs and leds all OFs in RBI. Torii Hunter is quietly having a monster year - .306/.353/.557, with 15 HRs and 11 steals - in the last year of his contract; someone (probably Texas) is going to give him a lot of money this winter. Manny Ramirez started off slowly, but he's gotten back to his usual self of late. Ichiro's still doing what he does best, and Alex Rios has 17 homers, most among OFS. Gary Sheffield is listed as an OF, although he's been primarily DHing this year; his .922 OPS deserves consideration. Curtis Granderson is slugging really well (also .557), although that 24:71 K/BB percentage is awfully ugly. Here's something interesting, though: Granderson has 14 triples so far this year. That puts him on pace for about 30 for the season, if he were to keep it up. Well, 30 triples would place him fourth on the all-time single-season list (the record is 36). And almost everybody on the list playhed in the dead-ball era or shortly thereafter, when triples were much more common. The leader post-WWII is Dale Mitchell (who?), with 23 triples in 1949. Lance Johnson's 21 in '96 are the most in the past 50 years.
How the voters are doing: Vlad #1, Magglio #2, Ichiro #3, with Manny just a handful of votes behind Ichiro and Hunter also in the running. Gary Sheffield (of course, another Tiger) is sixth.
Who I'm voting for: Magglio, Vlad, and Hunter. I dock Sheffield a few points for not really playing outfield.
Acceptable to vote for: Ichiro, Sheffield, Granderson, Manny, Rios, and Grady Sizemore are all reasonable selections. Lots of good outfielders in the AL.
National League:
Catcher: This one's rather easy. Russel Martin's OPS is almost 100 points higher than anyone else's, and his is just .822. He leads all NL catchers in just about every offensive category (especially steals, where he has about as many as everybody else combined), and he's at least decent defensively. Brian McCann is having kind of a down year, hitting just .256, and there just aren't any other great catchers in the league.
How the voters are doing: Martin is leading the voting, but Paul Lo Duca is within striking distance. Lo Duca, by the way, has a .680 OPS - that's even worse than Brad Ausmus. He has 3 homers and 20 RBI in almost 250 at-bats. The only way he should be a part of the All-Star game is maybe as a catcher in the HR derby.
Who I'm voting for: Russel Martin.
Acceptable to vote for: Nobody else. There's just no argument to vote for anybody else here.
First Base: Prince Fielder's 1.003 OPS is third-best in the NL, and tops among first basemen. He's got 27 HR - 11 more than anybody else at the position - and his 62 RBI lead that category by an equally comfortable margin. This is a loaded position, though; six players have an OPS at or above .900. Derrek Lee is quietly putting up great numbers, last year's MVP candidates Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols are stellar again, and Todd Helton and Dimitri Young are doing very well also. Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez seems to be in the middle of a breakout season, too; he's not getting on base quite as much as you'd like, but he's slugging .512 and has 51 RBI.
How the voters are doing: Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, and Derrek Lee are #1, 2, and 4 respectively - all are solid choices. Carlos Delgado (batting just .225) at #5 is not such a good choice. And Nomar at #3 may be the worst choice at any position in either league, given the depth of this position. He's slugging just .332, and his .648 OPS is last - that's right, last - among all starting first basemen (in either league). The Dodgers are planning to move him to third to make room for James Loney, which is a great move, and one that should have been made three months ago (if not last year).
Who I'm voting for: Prince Fielder.
Acceptable to vote for: You can't really go wrong voting for D-Lee or Howard, and you can never go wrong voting for Pujols. After that, it gets harder to justify voting for anybody else.
Second Base: Just as easy as catcher was. Orlando Hudson's having a good year, but Chase Utley is at another level. Utley's .320 BA, .399 OBP and .553 SLG all lead the position, as well as his 58 RBI. Dan Uggla and Kelley Johnson are all playing well, too, but you've gotta go with Utley.
How the voters are doing: Utley leads the way, with 1.3 million votes. Jeff Kent is in second place; he's doing pretty well, but nowhere near Utley. Craig Biggio (.279 OBP - just get to 3,000 hits already!) is third, somehow.
Who I'm voting for: Utley.
Acceptable to vote for: Nobody else. In an alternate universe, where Rickie Weeks is healthy and hitting well, maybe he at least challenges Utley, but right now there's nobody close.
Third Base: A really tight race between Miguel Cabrera and Chipper Jones. Jones has a slight edge in OPS (1.014 to .998), but Cabrera's done it over 75 more at-bats, so his counting stats are much higher. Milwaukee rookie Ryan Braun has done really well since his callup, but he hasn't played nearly as much as the first two guys. Aramis Ramirez and David Wright are both having pretty good years, but there just isn't really a case to be made for either of them over Cabrera or Chipper. (I honestly haven't looked at the totals yet, but I guarantee you that Wright's leading the voting, though.)
How the voters are doing: Hey, I was right! Not surprisingly, Wright leads the voting, with about 300,000 more votes than Cabrera. Chipper is third.
Who I'm voting for: Miguel Cabrera. He's hit extremely well over more at-bats than Chipper, which gives him the edge in my opinion.
Acceptable to vote for: I can't really argue much with Chipper, either. I guess one could make a case for Ramirez and Wright, but it would be hard to convince me.
Shortstop: Talk about a loaded position. Edgar Renteria, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, and Jose Reyes are all great hitters at the toughest defensive position (plus Rafael Furcal, who's having a down year). And Troy Tulowitzki and Stephen Drew will probably jump into that group within the next year or two, if they continue to develop well. Christian Guzman is having a good year for the Nationals, though there's no way you can vote for him at a position this loaded. Hardy was easily the right choice through the first month and a half, but he's fallen off some since then; his OBP is a rather average .340, and his batting average isn't helping his cause (.285). Rollins is actually slugging exceptionally well this year (.514), but he also isn't getting on base much. It gets really hard to separate Renteria, Ramirez, and Reyes; Renteria's rate numbers are slightly better, but we're talking about very, very small differences here. Reyes has the most speed, followed by Renteria, and I think Reyes is the best fielder as well.
How the voters are doing: Reyes leads the voting, of course, although Hardy is pretty close behind him. Furcal is third, despite having a down year (lots of Dodgers seem to be doing well in the voting), and Rollins is fourth. Fifth? Oh my god, don't make me say it...it's none other than David Eckstein. That's right - 571,000 people think that David Eckstein is the most qualified shortstop to start the All-Star game. I can't even think of anything to say here. That's more votes than Ramirez or Renteria. Let's just move on.
Who I'm voting for: Reyes, just barely ahead of Ramirez and Renteria.
Acceptable to vote for: Ramirez and Renteria definitely, and Rollins and Hardy are also fine choices.
Outfield: Outfield in the NL is kinda tough. Matt Holliday has to be in - his .993 OPS is impressive anywhere, even at Coors. He's really underrated, but he is probably the best corner outfielder in the NL right now. Barry Bonds has 75 walks and a .498 OBP - he gets on base literally half the time he comes to bat. I don't care if he's likeable or not, that's extremely valuable. Picking a third OF is tricky. Ken Griffey Jr. actually has a .964 OPS, which surprised me; the Great American Ballpark is a hitter's park, but that's still good. Hunter Pence has OPSed .984 this year, but he was called up during the season, so he doesn't have as many plate appearances as the others. Alfonso Soriano started off really cold, but he's heated up lately. Adam Dunn is having a really good year amidst the trade rumors. Eric Byrnes is having a really good year; he's not an ASG candidate but I felt like pointing that out.
How the voters are doing: Carlos Beltran, Griffey, and Soriano are the starters as of today; Beltran's OPS is below .800, but the other two are fine choices. Bonds is fourth, but he's within 120,000 votes of Soriano. Andruw Jones is fifth despite having an absolutely atrocious year (.197 BA), and Holliday is sixth.
Who I'm voting for: Holliday definitely, Bonds definitely, and...crap, this is hard. I'll go with Griffey.
Acceptable to vote for: Hunter Pence, Dunn, Soriano, and probably a few others.
And, just for the hell of it, here are my ASG starting pitchers: Dan Haren in the AL, Jake Peavy in the NL. Now go vote!
(from my blog, http://bpcatcher.blogspot.com/)
