Who Ya Got? Tylersalt's Week 7 Picks and "Expert" Analysis
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by Tylersalt
When we last saw our hero, he was putting up a very poor line of 6-7 in Week 6 and feeling very down on himself. But does a real football-picking superhero give up after a tough week? NEVER! He powers on to Week 7, with its promise of marine mammal slaughter, some revenge running, and a game that maybe, just maybe, can live up to the hype. Once again, I actually have a great deal of pride running on these picks -- they're the exact picks I'm using for my three pick'em fantasy leagues. No writing one way and picking another here! These picks are in reverse order of confidence: 14 points on the first game, 1 on the final game. Without much further ado, I give you... THE PICKS!
Last week: 6-7. (Picked Jacksonville, Cleveland, Baltimore, New England, Philadelphia, and NYG)
Season So Far: 52-36 (Not bad!)
HOME TEAMS IN CAPS (spreads included for reference -- picks are to win outright)
I can see Roger Goodell now... With the first overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Brian Brohm, Quarterback, University of Louisville. Some people recall last season when the Dolphins upset the Patriots in December by scoring two touchdowns in the final 2:07 (in a game that prominently featured now-Pats running back Sammy Morris for the Fins), and insist that this could be a trap game for Bill Belichick's crew. To them I say nay! If the Pats lose this season, the only team to beat them will be the Indianapolis Colts early next month. Tom Brady continues a march towards a certain rival's single season touchdown record, and the Pats run up the score biiiiiiiiiig time on poor, poor Cleo Lemon and win 42-17.
Baltimore running back Willis McGahee was basically run out of western New York during the offseason, and there is no love lost between McGahee and his former team. I think the once and former Bill runs roughshod over his old mates and almost, almost, makes them forget about stud rookie Marshawn Lynch. Trent Edwards better get one of those heating pads and stick it down the back of his pants, because his @$$ could be spending a whole lot of time on the cold Buffalo turf this week. Note: I actually don't think the Ravens are any better than mediocre. Their defense is not the unit it once was, and it got a whole lot worse this week with the injury to cornerback Chris McAllister. They've taken a prominent spot near the top of my picks columns lately not necessarily because I believe in Kyle Boller and crew, but because they've played some real dogs. Anyway, Ravens win this one 21-10.
I almost sacked the suddenly struggling Seattle Seahawks defense (ooh... alliteration!) from my fantasy team this week, but then I noticed that they're playing the hapless Rams. Seriously, the Rams have no hap whatsoever. I think even getting Steven Jackson back (and that isn't expected to happen until Week 10) wouldn't help this team be any better. Marc Bulger has never exactly put the fear of God into me, and Marc Bulger with a few broken ribs and a Swiss cheese offensive line scares me even less. Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce have both lost a step, although it doesn't really matter since Bulger barely has time to get them the ball anyway. I'm sure the Seahawks will do just enough to barely win this game and give me a 12-point heart attack, but win they will, 17-6. You couldn't pay me to watch this game.
Hey, remember a little thing called the 2008 49ers Bandwagon? Yeah, it's in the shop and has been replaced by a shiny new Giants bandwagon! As much as I hate to admit it as a Redskins fan, the Giants are for real. Eli Manning finally seems to be putting it together, helped immensely by the monster season Plaxico Burress is having for him. The running game, despite injuries to both Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, also seems to be moving along (a three way committee here, by the way, with Reuben Droughns). But the big story for the G-Men has been the revitalized defense. Expect San Fran to struggle against their second straight tough defensive matchup. Giants take this one, 21-9.
Steelers (-3 1/2) over BRONCOS
This line seems way, WAY too low for me. The Broncos just aren't very good this year! Fast Willie Parker will run right over the suddenly porous Broncos run defense (dead last in the NFL against the run!), and Ben Roethlisberger won't have to do a whole lot to win this one. More bad news for the Broncos: wideout Javon Walker will not play due to injury. I think the Steelers send the Broncos reeling, 28-7, in a game where the Steelers control the ball for over 40 minutes.
A battle, perhaps, between Donovan McNabb's current team and his future team? Maybe, but the fact is that the Bears don't have McNabb yet; they have Brian Griese. Therefore, they will lose this football game. The Bears D suddenly can't stop anybody, and look for Brian Westbrook to do his best Adrian Peterson impression and break some long, pretty runs for scores. The Eagles will come up with a big defensive play or two as well. Eagles win 24-14, and it's only that close because of one man. Devin Hester.
REDSKINS (-8 1/2) over Cardinals
A few weeks ago, I would have thought this was going to be a pretty good game. That was before Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner got hurt. Warner might actually play with a big combination of tape and a brace on his non-throwing elbow, but I don’t think it makes a big difference. One big hit from London Fletcher and we could see Tim Rattay. Edgerrin James can't get the ball to Fitzgerald and Boldin, who should finally return from injury. The Washington defense steps up and has another good game, and Jason Campbell and crew get themselves a W, 27-14.
OOOOOOgly game. Chad Johnson has said that he will no longer perform any touchdown celebrations until his Bengals are at .500. This means that this team has no entertainment value whatsoever unless you’re a sadist. That D is awful. This could be a bizarre, ugly, shootout which could go either way, but I’m sticking with my statement last week that the Jets will not win a game until they start Kellen Clemens at quarterback. Cincinnati wins this one 34-28.
Ladies and gentleman, Byron Leftwich! Drew Brees put up some decent numbers against Seattle last week; look for him to duplicate that feat against a rough-looking Atlanta defense. Jerious Norwood and Warrick Dunn could both have good games against a Saints D that can’t stop ‘’anybody’’ on the ground. The Saints win their second straight and regain some shred of respectability (and make Nola Chick real happy), 28-13.
When these two teams play it’s always worth a watch; even this year, when they’re both pretty facking bad. Donatevo’s Chiefs may get Priest Holmes of all people back in this game, which is bizarre to think about. I think Larry Johnson has a pretty good game here, with 100+ yards and a touchdown, and the Chiefs are able to limit Daunte Culpepper’s production enough to win, 23-14.
This game is going to come down to one thing and one thing only: Vince Young’s status. Young injured his hamstring during last week’s loss at the Bucs, and coach Jeff Fisher has said that even though Young has not practiced all week, that doesn’t necessarily rule him out of playing or even starting on Sunday. HOWEVER. VY is just not VY if he can’t use his legs to make plays, and this hammy injury is going to force him to stay in the pocket and throw the ball. Is he still better than backup Kerry Collins? Uh, yeah. But will it be enough against Houston this week? No. Also: looks like Andre Johnson is still a few weeks away from returning to the Texans, but they should still win ugly here, 17-13.
The Bucs keep playing teams that are so mediocre and so close to their level of talent that I still can’t get a read on them. I thought about this one long and hard and decided that the Bucs just do not have the talent on offense to take advantage of a dreadful Detroit defense. Damned if I knew what the Bucs are all about, though. On the Lions’ side of the ball, Calvin Johnson should be fine coming off the bye week, and Kevin Jones looks to be getting the start at running back, both pieces of good news for Jon Kitna and the offense. Lions eke out another ugly one, 21-20.
Vikings (+ 9 1/2) over COWBOYS
This could be real dumb, but I think that Adrian Peterson has another monster game against a Cowboys defense that you can definitely run the ball against. If the Vikes can win this game, it will be another close one like last week against the Bears. Tarvaris Jackson is awful, but he can't be nearly as bad as he was last week and will give them just enough to make it work. Tony Romo will bounce back after a decidedly mediocre performance against the Pats last week, but it won't be enough by a hair without good games from Marion Barber III and Julius Jones. Vikes win a gooooood game, 23-21.
*GAME OF THE WEEK*
*UPSET SPECIAL*
I could regret this one biiiiiig time. But the Jags always play the Colts real tough, their run defense should be able to take away Joseph Addai and the Indy running game, and Maurice Jones-Drew seems to be hitting his stride. If Jacksonville can get out to a lead in the first quarter and aren’t forced to play catch-up on the arm of David Garrard, they can win this game. Otherwise, it’s just going to be too much of Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison to handle. I think they pull it off in the first actual good game on Monday Night Football this season, 24-23.
Byes: Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, San Diego Chargers, Carolina Panthers
