White Sox Starters: Examining the Fall

by user Timothy Moreland(Bball3345)

Alright, before those of you who are subscribers to Sports Illustrated start accusing me of stealing this idea from the Extra Mustard section. I actually wrote this article before receiving my issue. On Wednesday night, I wrote this article, then with the site being down on Thursday, I could not post it. Thursday afternoon, I opened my Sports Illustrated and flipped to my favorite section, Extra Mustard by Baseball Prospectus, revealing, to my dismay, they had written about the exact same topic as this article. However, I will still post my own article for those who do not subscribe to Sports Illustrated or for those who do and want to see a more in-depth explanation.

2005

2006

What has happened to the White Sox rotation? After having four starters post winning records, sub-4.00 ERAs, and carry the Sox to a World Series ring, they now sport a rotation with only one guy who could have made last year's rotation, outside of the five spot. Oddly, the faces remain the same, with all four starters from last year staying put and the addition of Vazquez. Vazquez was supposed to make the already elite rotation even better. No such thing happened. Instead, his effort has pulled the rotation's cumulative ERA higher with his own 5.44 ERA.

In 2005, all four of the mentioned starters gave the White Sox a better chance of winning than losing. In contrast, only Contreras can make the same claim in 2006. So, why have the starters slumped so badly.

Mark Buehrle

Buehrle's struggles this season can be attributed to his loss of dominance and the home run ball. His K/9 rate has dropped from borderline good at 5.67 last season to 4.05. Sorry, but you are relying way too much on defense and luck if you allow batters to put the ball in play that frequently. His walks are up a tad, but still in a good range. As mentioned before, home runs are hurting Buehrle's ERA as well. Last season, batters only hit 0.76 HR/9 off of Buehrle, but this season that number has ballooned to 1.31 HR/9.

Freddy Garcia

Garcia's ERA is approximately a full run above his ERA last season, and about 0.8 runs above his career ERA. Oddly, his control has actually improved from last season, with his BB/9 dropping from 2.37 to 2.29. This would be the third straight season in which his walk rate has dropped, starting at 3.17 in 2003. So, what is the problem if his control has improved? Well, much like Buehrle, Garcia's strikeouts have come less frequently and the ball has left the park more frequently. In 2004, batter's struck out at a pace of 7.89 per nine innings against Garcia. This year, that same stat has fallen to 5.25. While not as bad as Buehrle, a strikeout rate so low will rarely get the job done. Garcia has always had problems with the longball, as can be seen by his career 1.05 HR/9, but this year the problem has reached an all-time high. Balls have left the building at a pace of 1.55 every nine innings.

Jon Garland

Garland's 11-3 record masks his dreadful 5.01 ERA. Like Buehrle and Garcia, Garland's K rate and HR rate have moved in the wrong direction. His already low 4.68 K/9 has dropped to an even more unacceptable 4.59. Likewise, home runs have been hit at a rate of 1.32 every nine Last year's 3.50 ERA should largely be credited to the defense and luck. Garland only struck out 4.68 per nine in 2005, but the batting average on balls in play(BABIP) was a low .268. This season, his BABIP stands at a much higher .310, trying to pull last year's low number toward his career BABIP of .281. This regression to the mean, along with diminished skills, have caused Garland's ERA to soar.

Javier Vazquez

Guess what? Vazquez has seen a drop in his K rate from last year, falling from 8.01 to 7.02. Unlike the others, his is still well above the acceptable threshold. It seems like Vazquez has been hurt more by the defense and bullpen than any other starter on the team. As far as the defense, his BABIP is at .328, his highest number since 2000 with Montreal when it was .348. In his 2001 season, his BABIP dropped back down to a more normal .290 mark. So, expect Vazquez to see a bounceback in 2007. For the bullpen, they have allowed of 11 of the 17 baserunners Vazquez left on base to score. According to BaseballProspectus' Bullpen Support stat, this is approximately 4 extra runs charged to Vazquez than if an average bullpen had come in to relieve him. Still, no matter how many excuses you can make for Vazquez, his ERA still sits at 5.44. By the way, his home run rate has gone down from 1.46 per nine to 1.00.

Jose Contreras

While Contreras has not struggled, it would be helpful to take a look at how he has succeeded. Not surprisingly, Contreras has seen a drop in his K rate, from 6.77 to 5.83. In his rookie season for the Yanks, Contreras struck out 9.13 per nine, followed by a 7.93 K/9 season in 2004. While his K rate has decreased every year since entering the majors, the six-foot-four righty has still posted solid ERAs in 2005 and 2006. This is due to a simultaneously declining BB rate and HR rate. From his 2004 4.44 BB/9, it dropped to 3.30 in 2005 and 2.62 this season. Also, his HR/9 fell from 1.64 to 1.01 and 0.85.

Conclusion

I'm not exactly sure why, but it seems as if the same pattern exists among all the starters. Their K rates have fallen, while home runs are traveling out at an alarming pace. Maybe all of the extra innings from last year's playoff run has left them with tired arms for this season, which might explain the drop in dominance. Still, one would imagine the offseason of rest should have been enough to enter the season healthy. I am not aware if there have been any changes to the White Sox ballpark that might allow for more home runs or if the wind has been blowing out all year. I am not sure, but, regardless, the starters are all suffering from the same symptoms.

Date

Fri 08/04/06, 8:12 am EST

I am a cpcpMajor Leaguer

1196 days ago

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Maybe they all realized they play for the White Sox. :-) I expect the same kind of drop with the Tigers next year making way for the Tribe :-D

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Bball3345Draft Pick

1196 days ago

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If you check my preseason predictions on my User Page, I picked the Indians to win the division. Better luck next year.

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