Which sports will rule in 50 years...100 years
| 13
|
by user Shrubbery
A fascinating debate but one that’s nearly impossible to quantify is a juxtaposition of the major American sports of now versus which sports shall rule fifty or even one hundred years from now. So, in my effort to immerse myself in everything sports I offer up my take on which sports are king now and which shall be king in the next century. Caveat: this is not a commentary on which sports are better than others, just a take on the direction, power structures, and futures of this country’s most popular sports leagues.
Football started its ascendancy to the top of the sports’ hierarchy in the late 60’s. Loveable characters/players like Joe Namath, teams like the Steelers’ dynasty, and the innovation of Monday Night Football seared football into our collective consciences. The most financially lucrative sports league in the Western Hemisphere has been a model of competitive balance, has garnered widespread fan appeal, and maintains steadily spectacular television ratings. The labor strife of the mid 80’s nearly tore the NFL asunder. But that which does not kill you only makes you stronger. Since the turmoil settled down the NFL instituted a sound financial plan that is the envy of all. That’s why football is currently the most popular sport in the U.S.
As the 20th Century marched on baseball was muscled out of it’s perch atop the American sports lexicon. Yet still our nation’s pastime is still our nation’s pastime. No other sport is so easily identifiable with the very change of seasons. Everyone knows springtime means baseball. And the legendary “boys of summer” apply their craft while the other three major sports hibernate. Baseball has the envious position of having literally no competition from other sports for half its season. The very sounds that echo from the ballpark conjure images of lazy summer days, afternoons with the kids, and warm starry nights sipping beer and barbecuing. Baseball is woven into the tapestry of American life more so than any other sport. But television ratings have fallen as have attendance figures and merchandise sales. Many franchises are financial black holes and MLB still refuses to address its drug problems. The ’94 work stoppage irreparably tarnished baseball’s image. What was once the most adored sport in this country is now relegate to second place.
The NBA under David Stern’s leadership, and due to the force that was Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan, rose from near death in the late 70’s. While the international appeal of basketball is rising the domestic lure has fizzled since the Bulls’ dynasty faded. Television ratings are mediocre, the scoring is down by plenty since the late 80’s, and the influx of young but fundamentally retarded players has reduced basketball to a mind numbingly slow trot compared to the track meets of the 80’s. The NBA is still a marketing juggernaut but the modern players are no where near the ambassadors that once graced the hardwood. Shaq may be the last truly dynamic personality left in the game. Even though its popularity has risen incrementally the NBA is still only the third most popular sport in the U.S.
And then there’s hockey. The ‘04-‘05 season was snuffed out due to both sides recreation of the infamous Hatfield-McCoy feud. At one point, ’03-’04, the NHL generated more revenue than the NBA. But the players made demands they knew were futile while the owners lived off a $300 million war chest they’d been stealing away since the mid 90’s. So both sides entered into the fray with no intention of solving the labor impasse and millions of fans sat idle and dumbfounded as their favorite players were over seas in Europe and their beloved local franchises ceased operations. Now parody is almost guaranteed with a fairly conservative salary cap that will force teams to juggle the books like carnival side shows. The future of hockey in America seems secure…but for how long.
First we step in our time machine and move the clock forward 50 years to the year 2056 and check out the picture again.
If there’s one absolute about the American sports fan is that he/she has a short attention span. And the one sport that caters to this phenomenon almost perfectly is football. You get 4-10 seconds of dizzying action followed by 30 seconds of standing around. Fifty years from now the salary cap will be equal to the GNP of Jamaica, linemen will be 350-400 pounds, running backs will have 3.5 speed, and quarterbacks will throw the ball 90 yards. The NFL will sign a television contract worth $100 billion and games will be broadcast to flat-panel screens that fit in an eye glasses frame. Super Bowl XC will be won by the Omaha Cardinals after the team moves for the eleventh time. And football will still be king.
After the now infamous labor wars of 2020 operations in the NHL stopped for two years. As the players went to Europe, again, and the owners put teams on ice (get it, bwahahahaha, I’m so clever), again, the fans twisted in the breeze, again. Yet this work stoppage was different. The two sides actually developed a sound business entity that combined a salary cap, revenue sharing, player profit sharing, a stiff drug policy, the implementation of a larger ice surface along with other rules changes, and a clamp down on goonery and violence. The emphasis of the game was now on speed, movement, skill, and passing. The fans loved the new product and clamored for hockey.
In the past 50 years baseball in America has lost its luster. One of the most popular players in league history died on the field from systemic failure, the result of years of steroid and HGH use; add to this three separate work stoppages, declining attendance, and less lucrative television deals. With its continued antitrust exemption MLB was able to usurp franchise control from various owners and shepherd teams around at will and eliminate them from the baseball landscape. Contraction of the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Tamp Bay Devil Rays, and Milwaukee Brewers was followed by the mass migration of franchises; the Florida Marlins were shipped to Charlotte, the Toronto Blue Jays were moved to Washington D.C. so our nation’s capital could watch two teams, and as a result the Baltimore Orioles were uprooted to Las Vegas. What a mess. The truly unfortunate part is the powers that be in MLB still seem more concerned with reaping the spoils of war than acting in the best interest of the league.
The once lucrative NBA has taken a nose dive in popularity. Its continued emphasis on courting foreign born players and overseas markets has alienated what was once a rabid North American fan base. Franchise movement is commonplace, TV ratings are horrid, once bountiful broadcasting deals have dried up, and scoring per game has plummeted to a pedestrian 50 points per game per team. There is also a dearth of marketable players. To say the least the NBA is in trouble.
Now, let’s jump forward to 2106…
The more things change the more they stay the same. The internal combustion engine is now an antiquated trinket, computers now fit in wrist watches, and football is STILL king. The continued growth in popularity of the NFL has spawned expansion franchises to all corners of North America. In 2065 the NFL bought the Canadian Football League and absorbed its franchises. There are now 48 teams in two conferences with six divisions each. Twenty four teams qualify for the playoffs, the preseason has been whittled down to two weeks, and modern medical advances have reduced rehab time from a torn ACL to two weeks. And fans turn out in droves, even to watch the still pathetic Detroit Lions.
The NHL continues its strangle hold on popularity. Last year’s Stanley Cup finals drew television ratings better than any sporting event not called the Super Bowl. The speed and intensity have attracted hundreds of millions of casual fans and even Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Caribbean have NHL franchises. The playoffs still take three months but nobody seems to mind.
And baseball has finally been stripped of its antitrust exemption. Teams are now fully in control of the individual owners and the financials have improved. After 75 years of resistance MLB finally instituted a salary cap, revenue sharing, a harsh drug policy, and did away with the DH. The popularity of the sport soared when rules were implemented to speed up the game. A 20 second pitch/batting clock was introduced, the playoffs were expanded, and crotch grabbing and tobacco spitting were banned.
The NBA was renamed the International Basketball League. Its headquarters are located in London. Only ten American teams exist; New York, Boston, Chicago, Las Angeles, Detroit, Denver, Dallas, St. Louis, Miami, and Seattle/Vancouver. While international support for basketball has boomed the only truly American-made sport is but a mere afterthought in the U.S.
See, it’s simple when you break things down scientifically.
Date
Mon 07/10/06, 8:44 am EST
