Where is Duke going to be seeded?
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by user Jamesmouton
Even after Duke's overtime loss to NC State in the opening round of the ACC Tournament last night, everyone would agree that Duke's RPI and Schedule Strength numbers are too high for the Blue Devils to be omitted from the NCAA Tournament. The question then becomes how does the Selection Committee deal with this years Duke squad as far as seeding is concerned. Even after a lackluster run in ACC Conference games, Duke is still ranked in the top 20 of the RPI. Why is Duke ranked so high in Power Rankings? No, it is not some massive Coach K Conspiracy as many would like to think. Taking a look at the Blue Devil's schedule will tell the story.
Duke is obviously overrated this season, nobody would argue that fact. Would any other team in the nation still be ranked in the Top 25 after going .500 (8-8) in their conference? Of course not. But that is not to dismiss the fact that Duke did have some very impressive quality wins during non-conference play. They beat Air Force, Indiana, and Georgetown at the beginning of the year with their only non-conf loss being to Marquette. However, the Blue Devils played absolutely ZERO true road games in non-conference. That is crazy! Sure they beat three quality teams who should be heading to the tournament, but come on, play somebody away from home (and no, neutral sites do not count). So take that 13-1 non-conference record with a grain of salt.
Looking at the full body of work, we have a team with a few impressive wins back in 2006 and a .500 record in conference, good enough for 7th place in the ACC. Obviously Duke has done enough to make the Big Dance, I am not crazy and going to argue that they should be left out of this year's field. They are 22-10 with a 3-5 record against the RPI Top 25. But based on what I have seen this season, and the Devil's struggles down the stretch (4-6 in their last 10), I would seed Duke no higher than 9. And if their name wasn't Duke, they would be looking at an 11 or 12 seed. Now, after saying all of this, where do I expect Coach K's squad to be penciled in on Selection Sunday. I will be absolutely shocked if Duke is seeded any lower than 7 in this year's NCAA Tournament. Fair or not fair, the truth is that the Duke name carries as much power in college basketball as Notre Dame does in football. Love them or hate them, expect more stories, more commentaries, more of the lovefest for Duke and Coach K this March. It just wouldn't be March without it, right?
