What to do with Carlos Lee?
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by user Coreyisarealboy
In the last couple weeks, the Brewers have begun negotiations with Carlos Lee and his agent about the impending expiration of his contract. While the possibility of the Crew not resigning El Caballo to a longer deal has caused a ruckus around the state of Wisconsin similar to that of a four interception game by Brett Favre, the Brewers have a lot more options than most of these fans may realize.
Lee will no doubt be asking a hefty raise from his current $8 million salary. A lot of the people I've spoken with are adamant that the deal must be done regardless of price.
But, according to baseball-reference.com, the most similar players to Lee are teammate Geoff Jenkins and White Sox slugger Paul Konerko. Konerko recently pulled in a $12 million-plus deal this offseason, and if Lee demands similar numbers, the raise may push the Brewers' payroll (at approximately $50 million, the highest in recent memory) too high too quickly.
With pitcher Chris Capuano arbitration eligible next season, it's likely the Brewers will look to avoid it by extending a long-term deal to the guy that's become their ace in Ben Sheets' stead. Capuano, whose current salary is a paltry $450,000 is due for a hefty raise as well.
Bill Hall signed a one-year deal for 2006, and the Brewers are also looking to avoid arbitration with their Super-utility-man to a deal through 2008. Other players with expiring contracts include pitchers Tomo Ohka, Doug Davis, Rick Helling, Dan Kolb, Brian Shouse and Jeremi Gonzalez, and position players Jeff Cirillo and Chad Moeller.
With that many contracts to deal with, the probability of taking on Lee's salary becomes much more troublesome, especially dealing with their still relatively low payroll. Dumping Ohka's $4.5 million salary is one way to solve this, but with the lack of depth in the rotation, losing a proven quality starter doesn't bode well for the pitching staff.
In this case, the question becomes "Which can they sacrifice more?" The pitching staff has been riddled by injuries and its depth has shown its vulnerability. With most of the strong arms still in AA or Single-A or, in the case of Zach Jackson, not ready for promotion, losing the pitchers on the current staff could be disastrous.
The Brewers have options in the outfield in the minors. The Brewers could also look at trading Jenkins, thus losing a left-handed bat but opening the door for slugging prospect Nelson Cruz, who seems to be in the Jenkins mold--only right-handed--batting .288 with 13 homers and 42 RBI with 53 strikeouts in 53 games at AAA Nashville. However, Jenkins has been a staple on a revolving-door team for eight years, and the Brewers have been very reluctant to deal him.
Let's say Lee and the Brewers don't reach a deal, there is the possibility of trading him at the deadline. He will no doubt gain a lot of interest from teams looking to fill a power hitting and outfielding holes for a playoff run. But I suspect that if the Yankees haven't already inquired about him to solve their outfielding woes, this is out of the question. Not to mention, the Brewers will likely be in the hunt for a Wild Card come the deadline, and they will not want to give up their best power hitter for the stretch run.
At this point, it's looking like the Brewers will either sign him or lose him outright. Their payroll has nearly doubled in the past two years since Mark Attanasio bought the team, but it is unlikely to remain on that course for much longer, or at least until the Brewers make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Milwaukee can afford to lose an outfielder more than they can pitching, it might just be a matter of who goes come that time of year.
Date
Fri 06/02/06, 8:53 am EST
