armchairgm
all sports, all you
+ Add Friends
You are not logged-in.
Sign Up - Log In
Main Page
Sports
Write
Articles
Hot Links
Images
Meet People
Fun
Explore
MLB - NFL - NBA - NHL - College Basketball - College Football - Soccer - Nascar - Other
Article - Locker Room Discussion
All Articles - New Articles - Today's Articles
Submit a Link - Approve Links
Picture Game - Ratings - Polls - Pick Game - Quiz Game - Spring Silliness
Random Page - Random Image - Random Fan
Edit
Page history Discuss pageWhat links here

What is the value of a home run?

7
Vote

by user Angels Fan

18 games into the season and ARod has 14 home runs. A pretty incredible feat for any baseball player, but consider that he has more home runs than 8 teams in MLB. The Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics and Arizona Diamondbacks only have 12 apiece, the Los Angeles Dodgers have 11, the Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, and Minnesota Twins have 10, and the Colorado Rockies, who play at the launching pad of Coors Field, have only 7. I think it is pretty impressive to have hit more home runs than 8 teams of 25 men.

But then look at the records related to those teams and that man. ARod's Yankees are sitting at 8-10, 2 games under .500, and 4 games behind the hated Red Sox. That's not so hot considering their payroll and even just how much they are paying Alex. The Nationals are at 6-12 and the Rox are at 8-12, but other than those 2, the teams with fewer home runs than ARod have better records than the Yanks. The Angels come in closest to NY at 9-10 followed by Arizona at 10-10. San Francisco and Oakland are only a game over .500 at 9-8 and 10-9 respectively, but Oakland leads the AL West. Once you get beyond them, you get some respectable records with the Twins at 11-8 and the Dodgers leading the NL West at 13-6.

So while ARod may be having the best start ever in the history of MLB, his team has very little to show for it. While he has hit a HR in each of the teams 8 wins, he has "wasted" 2 multi HR games in losses.

So how much are his 14 homes runs really worth?


Enable Comment Auto-Refresher
DNLLegend
950 days ago
Score 5+-
Lining up an individual's homers with his team's wins makes no sense. There are simply too many factors outside of the player's control to have him shoulder all the blame or credit for a win.

Here are two concrete examples: Imagine a player who grounds out into a triple play twice in the same season. His team is pathetic, going 58-104 over the course of the year. However, in both games that he was tripled up, his team won. Are you suggesting that it's good if the player grounds out into more triple plays?

Another, more real-life example: On July 6, 1986, Bob Horner hit four homers in the same game. Went 4 for 5 with 6 RBI. The only AB he had where he didn't homer, there was one guy one. So, let's say he went 5-5 with 5 homers and 8 RBI.

Well, his Braves lost the game, 11-8, to the Expos. Even if Horner had homered every at bat, they'd have lost (albeit 11-10). It's not his fault, though, that Zane Smith gave up 8 runs in 4 IP. No, the Braves didn't lose because of Horner's bombs; they lost in spite of the homers.

The same thing is true for ARod's.
Permalink | Reply
Bball3345Draft Pick
950 days ago
Score 2+-
^What he said...

I'm thinking the 8-10 record may have a little more to do with a starting rotation including Jeff Karstens and Chase Wright...

A home run is the single most valuable play in baseball and it is the most desirable outcome of any at bat. Angels Fan, don't try and take away from what ARod is doing.
Permalink
DNLLegend
950 days ago
Score 1+-
Actually, I do wonder if there's a value to hitting a double that's lost when the ball instead clears the fence and turns into a homer. Some weird psychological edge.
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
950 days ago
Score 1+-
Absolutely DNL. A double can clear the bases of any runners, PLUS leave another runner on base to distract the pitcher. Seeing that guy there on second sack after he just ripped your stuff wanes on you mentally as a pitcher.

You fail to clear your mind and settle down because he's right there reminding you and taunting you with a big lead.

Figure out what OBP is after a HR and after a double and you'll have a better idea.

If you look at rallys and big innings they are hits and walks, not just Homers
Permalink
False ProphetAll-Star
950 days ago
Score -8+-
Arod is on track for 120+ HR's, 300+ RBI, and the Yankees are on track for 90 Losses. I think that explains how much value you can place on a HR
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
950 days ago
Score 1+-
Really? That conclusively proves that a home run is worthless?
Permalink
Bball3345Draft Pick
950 days ago
Score 2+-
<sarcasm> Everyone knows if ARod had hit singles instead of home runs, the Yankees would be undefeated!!!<end sarcasm>
Permalink
TartanVarsity Captain
950 days ago
Score 4+-
That may have been the worst comment I've ever read on this site. We are all dumber for having read that. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Permalink
False ProphetAll-Star
950 days ago
Score -2+-
I think so. If someone can hit 100 HR's yet his team can lose 90 Games, how valuable can they be?
Permalink
TartanVarsity Captain
950 days ago
Score 2+-
Because they would have lost 120 without him. You've got to be kidding me. You can't really think this
Permalink
False ProphetAll-Star
950 days ago
Score -1+-
do they help? Yes, but is their value as much as it's praised? No. The Twins are tied for 2nd best record in the AL. THey have hit less home runs than A-Rod, and are second-worst in the league. HR's are not necessary. Run production can come in any form, and HR's don't necessarily win games
Permalink
Bball3345Draft Pick
950 days ago
Score 3+-
Nothing, "necessarily" wins games unless other things contribute. A pitching staff could let up one run a game, but if the batters score zero runs, then does that mean the pitching staff has no value? They would be 0-162 with a 1.00 ERA.

Obviously HRs in and of themselves don't win games, but they contribute more to scoring runs then any other hit. It isn't the fault of ARod's home runs that the Yankees have a subpar pitching staff.

The Yankees' offense is ranked #1 or #2 in the majors. ARod's HRs are a BIG part of that.
Permalink
Davis21wylieMVP
950 days ago
Score 5+-
Alex Rodriguez leads MLB in Win Probability Added, and by a pretty fair margin. If his HR were truly not adding to the Yankees' chances of winning (by coming in games the Yanks had already lost, for instance), his WPA would be not be this high. He's adding wins -- NY pitchers are just subtracting them as fast as he adds them...
Permalink | Reply
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
950 days ago
Score 0+-
exactly, WHERE would the Yankees be without A-Rods HRs?? (or RBI for that matter) At least two game winners wouldn't be...
Permalink
Manny StilesMajor Leaguer
950 days ago
Score 0+-
All I know is that if he doesn't hit 2 last night, we could talk about what really happened... the Devil Rays can hit! (2nd in the majors in HRs and runs scored, but have NO player with 5 hrs yet - the whole lineup has pop!)
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #1
950 days ago
Score 4+-
The value of 1 home run is 1 run.
Permalink | Reply
PeanMajor Leaguer
950 days ago
Score 0+-
comment of the year
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #2
950 days ago
Score 1+-
patrickburke1980 was fully responsible. he just dislikes signing in.
Permalink
PeanMajor Leaguer
950 days ago
Score 0+-
are you trying to be like Rickey Henderson?
Permalink
Anonymous Fanatic #3
950 days ago
Score -1+-
I dont what a home run is worth, but i know its worth twice as much if Jeter hits it. I love you Derek!
Permalink | Reply
KelsdadAll-Star
949 days ago
Score 1+-
Society for American Baseball Research has logged every homer hit in ML play, and the answer is 1.4 runs.
Permalink | Reply
Davis21wylieMVP
949 days ago
Score 0+-
Yep, linear weights says a HR is worth ~1.4 runs, which is why it's basically worth that much in our fantasy league (it's more like 1.44, but whatever).
Permalink
KelsdadAll-Star
949 days ago
Score 1+-
The original book was published in 1995, I was part of the research team. I haven't seen a re-write, just the original. The number in '95, I believe, was 1.41.
Permalink | Reply
Add your Comment
ArmchairGM welcomes all comments. If you don't want to be anonymous, Register or Login. It's free


Retrieved from "http://armchairgm.wikia.com/What_is_the_value_of_a_home_run%3F"

This page was last modified 07:31, 24 April 2007. Content is available under the GFDL.

Contribute

ArmchairGM's pages can be edited.
Is this page incomplete? Is there anything wrong?
Change it!

Edit this page Discuss this page Page history

Recent contributors to this page

The following people recently contributed to this article.

Embed this on your site

Main Page About Special Pages Help Terms of Use Advertise